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Tropical Hurricane Jose

JB said its still a threat to his forecast region, so it's still a threat ! :)
 
I see 12z GFS shifted ever so slightly east..... btw from NHC, pretty much shows you why Webb and I about the only one's interested in Jose Lol
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metwannabe said:
I see 12z GFS shifted ever so slightly east..... btw from NHC, pretty much shows you why Webb and I about the only one's interested in Jose Lol
145119_earliest_reasonable_toa_no_wsp_34.png
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Lol, I'm still interested in watching the storm too. The GFS, even though east, seems still just as strong. A slight adjustment west with the ridge and we could see a Cape Cod area hit.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Lol, I'm still interested in watching the storm too. The GFS, even though east, seems still just as strong. A slight adjustment west with the ridge and we could see a Cape Cod area hit.
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Lol I know, in fact, if the board wasn't storm warn out from Harvey and Irma we'd probably have to go live thread mode... and agreed any west jog brings Cape Cod in play but also the OBX with some high surf, beach erosion, rough seas to say the least
 
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metwannabe said:
Lol I know, in fact, if the board wasn't storm warn out from Harvey and Irma we'd probably have to go live thread mode... and agreed any west jog brings Cape Cod in play but also the OBX with some high surf, beach erosion, rough seas to say the least
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If 96L becomes a threat, we will really be worn out. Glad Jose isn't going to be even a close call for us here in the SE.
 
ForsythSnow said:
If 96L becomes a threat, we will really be worn out. Glad Jose isn't going to be even a close call for us here in the SE.
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OBX is the SE and still too early to say not a close call for them.... it's my favorite place on earth and I have many friends/family that either live there or have places there. But I get what your saying for the most part it's not a SE threat
 
ForsythSnow said:
Here we go again, going south after having its escape to post tropical cut off. How likely even is it that something plays out this way?
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Webb or someone who knows far more than I should weigh in on this but it appears to me if Jose interacts more with the trough and transitions to ET then it actually becomes a bigger threat to the ME or NE (tugged west, expanding wind field, etc.) but if it misses that as the GFS does then it's around for a while.
 
941 mb

0000UTC 19.09.2017 108 32.7N 74.8W 947 73
1200UTC 19.09.2017 120 34.4N 74.8W 941 76
0000UTC 20.09.2017 132 36.6N 74.5W 942 74
 
Getting too close for comfort, interested in what the Euro shows here in a bit...
GZ_D5_PN_120_0000.gif
 
Webberweather53 said:
Yeah, let's not forget we also have to go thru October and any threats that emerge out of the Caribbean, which has still been largely untouched this season thus far....
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Yep, and let's just hope we do not get a single storm south of the Greater Antilles that curves northward as it approaches Jamaica, or a storm that forms down there and moves towards the Gulf. That would be trouble given that environment is extremely hot and can blow a storm up into a monster any time. After all, that is where all the strongest storms except now Irma got their worst.
 
GEFS has a few more members with close call to NC coast with two or three actually making landfall
 
Almost a split on the gefs, with still majority offshore but definitely a second grouping that is precariously close to the coast
gefs_slp_lows_east_21.png
 
Fortunately, the deeper we get into fall the more likely any hurricane would be to curve north before reaching the US. Seems like October threats usually come from the Gulf.
 
SoutheastRidge said:
Fortunately, the deeper we get into fall the more likely any hurricane would be to curve north before reaching the US. Seems like October threats usually come from the Gulf.
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Matthew... :p

and actually South Florida's peak month is October because of storms recurving from the Western Caribbean(ala Wilma)

Most of the Gulf usually shuts down
 
Does anyone know the last time a major hurricane struck GA, the Carolinas or the northern Gulf coast in October ?
 
getting way too close to Cape Cod at 144

huge windfield maybe even back into NYC/NJ

on the 850 winds theres a streak of higher winds right over that area
 
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Jose will certainly have a big influence on the other potential TCs upstream. Euro attempting to develop a parade of tropical cyclones all following 96L's lead...
Could feasibly have 3 new TCs develop in the eastern Atlantic within the next week or so. Nuts.
ecmwf_uv850_vort_atltropics_7.png

I wouldn't be surprised if it happened either, given the passage of a modest CCKW over the far eastern Atlantic and Africa... It's like giving the dog a bone at this point.
DJtC0f7V4AIxMIy.jpg


As if it couldn't be any more embarrassing for Dr. Ventrice...

"not a whole lot going on in the tropics"... Literally the next day 2 code reds (96L & 97L) show up...
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