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Tropical Hurricane Jose

Well, the guy on Facebook, swears up and down it is going to landfall at SC/NC.
 
Storm5 said:
So all models have it wrong ?

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Almost all of the models are initializing Jose's vortex too far north & east, especially the European and the CMC, which not surprisingly are on the eastern side of the guidance envelope atm. At the very least this information should make you more skeptical of how far their solutions bring Jose OTS, because some of these errors are very significant...On the case of the Euro & CMC they're occasionally exceeding 50 nautical miles... On the other hand, given recent shifts in the UKMET, we should probably be looking for some sort of compromise here, similar to what the GFS has been advertising
 
Webberweather53 said:
Almost all of the models are initializing Jose's vortex too far north & east, especially the European and the CMC, which not surprisingly are on the eastern side of the guidance envelope atm. At the very least this information should make you more skeptical of how far their solutions bring Jose OTS, because some of these errors are very significant...On the case of the Euro & CMC they're occasionally exceeding 50 nautical miles... On the other hand, given recent shifts in the UKMET, we should probably be looking for some sort of compromise here, similar to what the GFS has been advertising
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In other words most likely scenario.... FG is good! Right through the uprights
 
metwannabe said:
In other words most likely scenario.... FG is good! Right through the uprights
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Perhaps but the steering flow is highly uncertain and fickle and if the upper level ridge to the north & northeast of Jose is any stronger than forecast, or if Jose's LLC continues to remain south of NWP forecasts (& initializations) it could be major consequences for the US or Atlantic Canada because this pattern is highly unstable and non-linear. Those from the Carolinas up thru Atlantic Canada and Bermuda should be watching this closely...
 
Storm5 said:
Forgot to post the 06z GEFS
7d5870c9180714a9e5f3e829ae3d7b9a.jpg


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Congrats DCA!
 
whatalife said:
Oh my word! I'm so tired of talking about hurricanes. I would love to talk about this winter but the writing is on the walls for that too. This weather sucks


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Don't worry JB will be along soon to discuss the Brazilian

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Jose should have no problem setting and probably smashing the record for most ACE produced by a "J" storm. Only Joaquin stands in his way @ 29.24 points, and assuming the NHC holds Jose's intensity @ 65 knots on the 11am advisory, he'll only be 1.5 points back of Joaquin... @ ~27.78 points
 
Webberweather53 said:
Jose should have no problem setting and probably smashing the record for most ACE produced by a "J" storm. Only Joaquin stands in his way @ 29.24 points, and assuming the NHC holds Jose's intensity @ 65 knots on the 11am advisory, he'll only be 1.5 points back of Joaquin... @ ~27.78 points
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Well, if the GFS is right, Jose will rank in the top 10 longest lived Atlantic storms too, lasting about 24 to 25 days. What a weird path on all the models last night too.
 
UKMET still a good ways out in front of all other NWP for day 5 verification of Jose's track. The UKMET has beaten the ECMWF every day 5 forecast thus far...
Screen Shot 2017-09-13 at 10.39.41 AM.png
 
Stormlover said:
The guy on facebook....well, I guess that settles it, lol
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Surprisingly he seems at least half way legit. He is a weather guy, not like he is just some random. He did say Irma would go East and North when others were saying it would go west and NW. I am not sure I follow him on this though. Seems to be sensationalizing in regards to Jose.
 
I looked at some records for the longest tracking Tropical Cyclone and l found one called Storm 3 in 1899 it lasted 27.75 days. I'm not sure of the date Jose crank up but the GFS has it going for at least 2 more weeks.
 
sigwx said:
I looked at some records for the longest tracking Tropical Cyclone and l found one called Storm 3 in 1899 it lasted 27.75 days. I'm not sure of the date Jose crank up but the GFS has it going for at least 2 more weeks.
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Jose formed on the 5th, so it would have to last a dew days into October to beat it.
 
GFS has shifted back east this run, may be enough that it will not get turned back towards conus by the NE high....
 
Last edited:
Good thing this run keeps Jose further offshore b/c once again just NW of Bermuda no steering currents and it's crawling... the 0z run that brought it into Va/NC also did this but the atlantic ridge was much stronger keeping Jose closer to the coast and allowing the NE ridge to build in over top. That's not the case this run.... so far
 
CMC trying to head Jose to Maine....
CMC has a cutoff that captures it and slingshots it towards the NE (Maine)
 
And eventually ots on the GFS but it takes until next Wednesday for that to finally happen...
 
The CMC does another loop off the NE coast and eventually heads it ots.... wow what a messed up steering flow with some unique storm tracks
 
12z UKMET remains similar to the last run, has Jose 50-75 miles due east of Cape Hatteras at day 6 as a borderline category 3-4 hurricane. Still looks like the model is initializing Jose's intensity too high but it has come down considerably which may partially explain why it was further south & west vs other guidance for a while because the steering flow in the upper levels the next few days has a larger equatorward component vs low-level trade wind flow
HURRICANE JOSE ANALYSED POSITION : 25.6N 65.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL122017

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 13.09.2017 0 25.6N 65.7W 975 68
0000UTC 14.09.2017 12 25.0N 65.6W 968 72
1200UTC 14.09.2017 24 24.8N 66.6W 969 74
0000UTC 15.09.2017 36 25.3N 68.2W 969 76
1200UTC 15.09.2017 48 26.0N 70.3W 969 77
0000UTC 16.09.2017 60 27.0N 72.0W 967 73
1200UTC 16.09.2017 72 27.9N 73.3W 959 82
0000UTC 17.09.2017 84 28.6N 73.8W 955 81
1200UTC 17.09.2017 96 29.6N 73.9W 947 82
0000UTC 18.09.2017 108 31.1N 73.8W 940 80
1200UTC 18.09.2017 120 32.2N 74.1W 936 82
0000UTC 19.09.2017 132 33.2N 74.1W 943 68
1200UTC 19.09.2017 144 34.7N 74.0W 948 68
 
Webberweather53 said:
12z UKMET remains similar to the last run, has Jose 50-75 miles due east of Cape Hatteras at day 6 as a borderline category 3-4 hurricane. Still looks like the model is initializing Jose's intensity too high but it has come down considerably which may partially explain why it was further south & west vs other guidance for a while because the steering flow in the upper levels the next few days has a larger equatorward component vs low-level trade wind flow
HURRICANE JOSE ANALYSED POSITION : 25.6N 65.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL122017

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 13.09.2017 0 25.6N 65.7W 975 68
0000UTC 14.09.2017 12 25.0N 65.6W 968 72
1200UTC 14.09.2017 24 24.8N 66.6W 969 74
0000UTC 15.09.2017 36 25.3N 68.2W 969 76
1200UTC 15.09.2017 48 26.0N 70.3W 969 77
0000UTC 16.09.2017 60 27.0N 72.0W 967 73
1200UTC 16.09.2017 72 27.9N 73.3W 959 82
0000UTC 17.09.2017 84 28.6N 73.8W 955 81
1200UTC 17.09.2017 96 29.6N 73.9W 947 82
0000UTC 18.09.2017 108 31.1N 73.8W 940 80
1200UTC 18.09.2017 120 32.2N 74.1W 936 82
0000UTC 19.09.2017 132 33.2N 74.1W 943 68
1200UTC 19.09.2017 144 34.7N 74.0W 948 68
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Dang it that's close....
GZ_D5_PN_144_0000.gif
 
Most NWP, even the Euro is having a lot of problems w/ Jose's short term track forecast...

The euro is not even close inside 24 hours, way too far north...
Screen Shot 2017-09-13 at 12.53.33 PM.png
 
12z Euro initialization is right on the money for Jose, much further south (as expected) compared to 24 HR ago and a little stronger, plus the intensity is about as perfect as you could ask for from a global model...
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Fwiw and most likely due to proper initialization the Euro has Jose stronger through 48.... and at this rate we will have the end of the run in time for the 0z run tonight
 
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