LickWx
Member
No . Give me hurricane
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Pattern Swamptember 2021
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
I’ll take a EPS cooler solution with this before however.. ? 
Nice blocking! But it was like this last year at this time...
How could I be down bad with the weather nice and chilly right now??
Awh just a young boy trying his very hardest to keep his pool opened in his mind
Well using the CFS that far out is pretty bad lol
Still is I checked this am and not expected to close till the first week of October
It's hard to trust the gfs in the D5+ at 2m Remember the runs that were 100+ here for last week? I think it does ok inside of D5 but it just gets stupid in the longer range
I’m not “using” it .. it’s just fun to look at .. also throw back to the last time I brought up the CFS and it showed the late September cool down .. I wonder if that came to fruition ?? oh wait I’m wearing a sweatshirt outside right now
Blind weenie finds a weak cool shot once in a while
High and low temps on long range Gfs for that wonky time period with the big trough and some tropical disturbance mixing in which will give us lots of scenarios at this point .. here’s one of them where the tropical influence helps pull the trough down and bring us the coldest high pressure we’ve seen yet .. probably won’t happen like this but we’re getting to the time of year where things like this are a possibility 
I wouldn't touch a forecast past D5 right now. That period is so volatile with the upper low and ridge.
Iceagewhereartthou
Member
Well I don't know what it will be like next week but, MAN, what a beautiful day today! 48.9 this am, absolutely GORGEOUS out there; about as perfect as one could wish for 9/23! LOVE IT! ? ?
Feels amazing outside
iGRXY
Member
Just cut the grass and not a drop of sweat. Sitting in the shade feels fantastic.
It's certainly possible I bet we split the difference and get a low over the NE or just offshore of the NE. Gotta think the euro is too far SW and the gfs is too progressive
Wudge, altho icon shifted the ULL east from 00z 
Works for me keeps Sam OTS but we get cool. Depending in how much moisture gets pulled south we might be able to get a day or 2 in the 60s with that
Damn it ---- this ---- ---- 
GFS looks like the icon now 
Yeah gfs is still the most consolidated with vort over SE Canada but it's certainly a step toward the cutoff solution. I'm not sure it cuts off completely though
When it comes to wedging down here .. we most definitely can bet on it happening over it not happening
The soundings just ahead if the backdoor front should be fun
Well the gfs is cutoff now it'll be interesting to see if it tries to back SW with the ridge to the west thumbing in over top
This is a problem for the NE if Sam can't escape NE like Joaquin did
Lol this run is crazy. 
Oh man the CMC
Monster hail setup on the CMC 
Gfs gives us upper level low flow consistently for a week or so starting next week.. that’s just such an insane pattern with weird weather it could provide … also it has some Fujihara effect going on out there by Sam with two random little low pressures by the NE .. such a weird pattern
If you want hail (me) then you might like where the euro is headed 
