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May 2021 Discussion Thread

ryan1234 said:
I get wanting some heat, especially given how cool May has been but I don't think some of you have the realization that by wishing all this heat were heading straight to drought. Which can and will be economically devastating for the SE. Droughts end costing billions and billions of dollars.
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Where were you when we were racking up agriculturally devastating late season freezes and frost ? No reason to think we are heading for drought because we are hot , or that a cool summer would be wet and not drought filled . Our dryness in April was under a largely cool regime of weather . Every summer this decade has been above average and apart from what 2010, has been wet . Our summers have gotten both wetter and hotter this decade .
 
I wasn’t trying to call anyone out or anything. I was just making a point. I know late season freezes are devastating to crops too but I don’t think it’s quite as high as long term drought. And I am not sure sure about that [mention]Lickwx [/mention] I mean I hope you’re right. But part of NC is already in moderate drought. Droughts tend to start out like this. And with the upcoming heatwave, it’s isn’t going to help. I think mostly, I just really miss thunderstorms. It’s been too long.


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ryan1234 said:
I wasn’t trying to call anyone out or anything. I was just making a point. I know late season freezes are devastating to crops too but I don’t think it’s quite as high as long term drought. And I am not sure sure about that [mention]Lickwx [/mention] I mean I hope you’re right. But part of NC is already in moderate drought. Droughts tend to start out like this. And with the upcoming heatwave, it’s isn’t going to help. I think mostly, I just really miss thunderstorms. It’s been too long.


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I think we are due for a big time drought bc it's been a few years from what I understand.. and I do know that it happens periodically here in the Carolinas from what I read.
 
ryan1234 said:
I get wanting some heat, especially given how cool May has been but I don't think some of you have the realization that by wishing all this heat were heading straight to drought. Which can and will be economically devastating for the SE. Droughts end costing billions and billions of dollars.
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hOw CaN YoU wIsH fOr TorNaDos and HuRriCane??? Not this old Diatribe? We hash this out every single year.... ??????
 
smast16 said:
hOw CaN YoU wIsH fOr TorNaDos and HuRriCane??? Not this old Diatribe? We hash this out every single year....
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No one said they wanted tornadoes or hurricanes. But this is a weather board and we like, weather. Drought and cold rain/drizzle is not weather. No need to be an ass about it.


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ryan1234 said:
No one said they wanted tornadoes or hurricanes. But this is a weather board and we like, weather. Drought and cold rain/drizzle is not weather. No need to be an ass about it.


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No need to ask people why they wishing for drought. Because drought is weather as much as flooding is weather.
 
Bham 99 said:
I think we are due for a big time drought bc it's been a few years from what I understand.. and I do know that it happens periodically here in the Carolinas from what I read.
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Yeah, the Carolinas are one of the least drought prone regions in the nation I’d have to imagine overall though. It’s definitely a solid 10 years since our last serious drought . Not sure about the statistics on returns period of varying drought severities .
 
smast16 said:
No need to ask people why they wishing for drought. Because drought is weather as much as flooding is weather.
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Drought maybe a weather phenomenon but it’s not the kind most of us want to see on this board. Have you not seen how quiet it is on here? Even Brad P just posted about this being the driest spring since 2016. Maybe you like dead grass, trees, etc. But I prefer to have green grass and trees that get so under-watered that they die and fall on homes, roads etc.


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It's not surprising we are dry given how wet it had been, regression to the mean made sense. That said it was surprising to me we did it with a below normal NW flow versus a locked SE ridge. I wouldn't get too concerned about the dry weather upcoming. We have been saved by anomalous events in a few of the recent May's but as a whole May kind of stinks for rain. If we start seeing the SE ridge hold on the models and not back out toward the west as we get toward memorial day weekend then yeah things could start getting problematic. I'm sure the "flash drought" term will get thrown around ad nauseum over the next 2 weeks. We toasted in May 2018 and 2019 and those summers turned out ok
 
SD said:
It's not surprising we are dry given how wet it had been, regression to the mean made sense. That said it was surprising to me we did it with a below normal NW flow versus a locked SE ridge. I wouldn't get too concerned about the dry weather upcoming. We have been saved by anomalous events in a few of the recent May's but as a whole May kind of stinks for rain. If we start seeing the SE ridge hold on the models and not back out toward the west as we get toward memorial day weekend then yeah things could start getting problematic. I'm sure the "flash drought" term will get thrown around ad nauseum over the next 2 weeks. We toasted in May 2018 and 2019 and those summers turned out ok
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I really hope you're right. I forgot how dry May was in 2018 and 2019. We also had some impressive MCS's those years as well. Especially as we got closer to July, if my memory serves me right.
 
BRad P has spoken: drought for the Carolinas! ?1C148365-57A2-4676-8856-0628B84EF84F.png
 
Lickwx said:
Yeah, the Carolinas are one of the least drought prone regions in the nation I’d have to imagine overall though. It’s definitely a solid 10 years since our last serious drought . Not sure about the statistics on returns period of varying drought severities .
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Does Shetley live in an entirely different set of Carolinas??
 
ryan1234 said:
I really hope you're right. I forgot how dry May was in 2018 and 2019. We also had some impressive MCS's those years as well. Especially as we got closer to July, if my memory serves me right.
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May is really a tough month for rain around here, seasonal dews aren't that high yet and the jet is often displaced well away from the region. I complain about dry a lot but it's hard to get too up or down on summer based off of mid May results it's like saying snowy cold winter bc we got a few flurries in mid November. I do think though this summer will likely tend to run a little more normal or slightly below with respect to rain totals though
 
ryan1234 said:
I get wanting some heat, especially given how cool May has been but I don't think some of you have the realization that by wishing all this heat were heading straight to drought. Which can and will be economically devastating for the SE. Droughts end costing billions and billions of dollars.
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I'm sure we will survive. Phoenix rarely gets rain and they seem to manage to survive.
 
Dewpoint Dan said:
I'm sure we will survive. Phoenix rarely gets rain and they seem to manage to survive.
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Phoenix really isn't a good example, because the whole SW might see the worst drought disaster in our nation's history. But you're right. I don't buy into the idea that the Carolinas can ever really experience a terrible drought. They'll eventually get their rain.
 
ryan1234 said:
Drought maybe a weather phenomenon but it’s not the kind most of us want to see on this board. Have you not seen how quiet it is on here? Even Brad P just posted about this being the driest spring since 2016. Maybe you like dead grass, trees, etc. But I prefer to have green grass and trees that get so under-watered that they die and fall on homes, roads etc.


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Just like Flooding and people "Wishing" for ice storms. We're back to the tired old argument of "Why are you wishing for XXX weather event that might hurt someone"? No one wants anyone hurt. Some people just like weather and want to see all possibilities.

Also, you should come around more and you'd know i'm a massive thunderstorm weenie and want one every day.
 
SD said:
That sucks
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At least with that look there’s gonna be some solid dews across the area given there’s nothing in the Atlantic robbing our flow, would probably be thunderstorms but still with the hot stagnant airmass in place
We’re deciding to torch now and see what happens cold weenies
 
smast16 said:
Just like Flooding and people "Wishing" for ice storms. We're back to the tired old argument of "Why are you wishing for XXX weather event that might hurt someone"? No one wants anyone hurt. Some people just like weather and want to see all possibilities.

Also, you should come around more and you'd know i'm a massive thunderstorm weenie and want one every day.
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Like I said, I don't want to fight with anyone or anything. Yes, we all seem to have this type discussions at least twice a year and that's okay. This board is for conversing. We are not always going to see eye to eye on every topic.

And I am here a lot. Which is why I was surprised by what you said. I know you like your storms. We all do! Lol.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
At least with that look there’s gonna be some solid dews across the area given there’s nothing in the Atlantic robbing our flow, would probably be thunderstorms but still with the hot stagnant airmass in place
We’re deciding to torch now and see what happens cold weenies
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True as long as we aren't stacked aloft we have a chance. I'd just like to see something sneak in maybe a shear axis or baggy upper low. I just don't feel great about air mass storms in May
 
SD said:
May is really a tough month for rain around here, seasonal dews aren't that high yet and the jet is often displaced well away from the region. I complain about dry a lot but it's hard to get too up or down on summer based off of mid May results it's like saying snowy cold winter bc we got a few flurries in mid November. I do think though this summer will likely tend to run a little more normal or slightly below with respect to rain totals though
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Using that lickin' boy's link you can tell May has no relation to summer in regards to precipitation. Spring is usually dry. (This is for my location.)

1621283504043.png
 
smast16 said:
Using that lickin' boy's link you can tell May has no relation to summer in regards to precipitation. Spring is usually dry. (This is for my location.)

View attachment 84030
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It's no different than in September when the spicket gets turned off around the first week maybe the second week of September.. we go from deluge to nothing and it can still be hot.
 
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