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Tropical Potential Eastern MDR Tropical Cyclogenesis (Again?!)

GaWx said:
I'm suspecting that the projected MJO is a factor causing the GEFS to be on its own. The MJO forecasts are unusually far different for the next few days with the GEFS staying around where it is inside the circle near phase 2 followed by an unusual clockwise rotation backwards into phase 1 whereas the usually more reliable EPS has it rotating counterclockwise into phase 3 followed by phase 4 pretty quickly. Usually the EPS verifies more closely fwiw. With the GEFS clockwise rotation being unusual vs climo and with it usually not doing well when far different from the EPS, I certainly wouldn't bet on its MJO forecast right now. It will be interesting to see which model comes closer. These model differences make following TCs more interesting to me.
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Interesting to me is the NHC now given this some attention (although 20% over next 5 days nothing huge) but former TD4 which the Euro is redeveloping and the GFS isn't and honestly looks more impressive at the moment has nothing from NHC. Real curious to see if they give any intermediate updates or change anything at the regular 2 pm update...
 
metwannabe said:
Interesting to me is the NHC now given this some attention (although 20% over next 5 days nothing huge) but former TD4 which the Euro is redeveloping and the GFS isn't and honestly looks more impressive at the moment has nothing from NHC. Real curious to see if they give any intermediate updates or change anything at the regular 2 pm update...
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100 percent they give an update today on former td4


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Silly question, but since it came to mind ...

Could the projected cooler than normal FL temps be associated with some yet-to-be-named storm? ... LOL ... :confused:

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Every run of the GFS I am just expecting it to slowly back off this storm. So far 12z appears to be stronger than 06z, so I personally think this should avoid Mexico this run. GOM or East coast is my guess this go around.. EDIT: now they're about the same
 
Cary_Snow95 said:
Every run of the GFS I am just expecting it to slowly back off this storm. So far 12z appears to be stronger than 06z, so I personally think this should avoid Mexico this run. GOM or East coast is my guess this go around.. EDIT: now they're about the same
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Looks to be a tick stronger and headed towards the shredder again this run.... one thing for sure GFS is not wavering yet
edit: actually on the eastern side of Hispaniola and crossing, more north looks like...
 
HP to the north not as strong this run might be an east coast storm this time....
 
This is closer to the 0z run from last night, not quite as strong but stronger and more north than 06z...
 
metwannabe said:
This is closer to the 0z run from last night, not quite as strong but stronger and more north than 06z...
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Yeah but the ridge is a little west and isn't as strong this run as you pointed out . All with huge ramifications


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I see a hype run coming, through the straits of Florida into the open GOM.... let's see what the "on an Island all by itself" GFS has to say

edit: scratch that Lol... this is going north
 
metwannabe said:
I see a hype run coming, through the straits of Florida into the open GOM.... let's see what the "on an Island all by itself" GFS has to say

edit: scratch that Lol... this is going north
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lol it's gonna be hyped regardless of where it goes


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Yeah I think so, I think it's making the last minute turn.....

I see winter storm tracking misery in our future :confused:
 
metwannabe said:
Yeah I think so, I think it's making the last minute turn.....

I see winter storm tracking misery in our future :confused:
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Haha wait till the para takes over . Then we get to start all over with tryout my to figure out the new Gfs lol


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This explains it... haha I was about to ask if anyone else was having issues, all I had to do was read
July 10 12:00pm EDT: The NOMADS data server appears to be struggling. 12Z GFS data is coming in more slowly than usual.
 
metwannabe said:
This explains it... haha I was about to ask if anyone else was having issues, all I had to do was read
July 10 12:00pm EDT: The NOMADS data server appears to be struggling. 12Z GFS data is coming in more slowly than usual.
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Saw that and thought about saying something, but just didn't for some reason lol.
 
Storm5 said:
I think you meant hard right . She gone....


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ForsythSnow said:
Saw that and thought about saying something, but just didn't for some reason lol.
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I did mean hard right, oops :confused:. I see it is a bit slow to move still, but it is going hard right. This solution just seems too fishy to be realistic.

And it is still stalled at 288.
 
ForsythSnow said:
I did mean hard right, oops :confused:. I see it is a bit slow to move still, but it is going hard right. This solution just seems too fishy to be realistic.
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Yeah it's not gonna stall with that trough . It would already be well on its way OTS . Anyway , the Gfs is still all alone


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Cary_Snow95 said:
My eyes may be playing tricks on me but did it just move the storm in a triangle....
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Yep. It might just sit there the rest of the run lol. The trough may be too deep, so it is being forced up, but the only way out is down at that time frame. Should move next few frames, maybe. This is probably what the "issues with tropical forecasting after the update" is producing.
 
Cary_Snow95 said:
Rip to the bahamas btw this run.. Now it's moving NW. hahahahahaha GFS
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The perfect vacation ruiner lol. And of course it goes North, because why not defy everything we expected it to. This is going to be close to an East coast scraper or just that. That pressure is insane too. Cannot realistically happen.
 
lol at this run... sits over the Bahamas for 3 days then makes a perfect turn to avoid US landfall

Sure, GFS...:eek:
 
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