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Tropical Hurricane Isaias

GFS pretty decent jump west, also much weaker, landfall over ILM....probably TS/weak cane pressure 997.....that track through NC would be rough though if it was a stronger system....

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Here’s the 00z GEPS. Doesn’t mean much because all of the members start off at the wrong pressure and it’s the Canadian, but here it is.
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Squeeze play with a quick trip through NC and a nice trough enhanced left of track precip maximum
Shane you'll take about a 5 mile west shift of the precip shield and call it a day I bet
gfs_z500aNorm_us_14.png
gfs_mslp_pcpn_seus_15.png
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SD said:
That gfs run backs TS sustained winds to 95 probably a rough ride for you and I along with rain cold, lick, and the greenville crew.
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Me and downeastnc continue to "debate" the proper crossing through NC. He is of the belief a track even through the sounds is sufficient i say the core right up between 95 and 17 or bust!
 
Shaggy said:
Me and downeastnc continue to "debate" the proper crossing through NC. He is of the belief a track even through the sounds is sufficient i say the core right up between 95 and 17 or bust!
Click to expand...
When was the last time we had a center along 95? Bertha 96? I can't pull any off memory

Fran went more west, Gaston was more of a US1, most of the recent storms have been fairly east
 
Anybody got 6z Euor maps yet, per Huffman it is weaker and into Fl, not a bad thing, would think it would be a good rain maker for most

 
SD said:
That gfs run backs TS sustained winds to 95 probably a rough ride for you and I along with rain cold, lick, and the greenville crew.
Click to expand...

That track with a solid largish Cat 2 would be about the worst case scenario given the expected shear and other organizational issues that should occur....that said who the hell knows all it takes is a 12 hr window before landfall over the gulf stream for things to go stupid...it really comes down to how well developed the main core is and how well it mixes down winds....
 
SD said:
When was the last time we had a center along 95? Bertha 96? I can't pull any off memory

Fran went more west, Gaston was more of a US1, most of the recent storms have been fairly east
Click to expand...

Bertha was basically due north from topsail to greenville. My first eye of a hurricane. Hearing the roar of the winds as the backside approached is not something I'll forget.

I believe ernesto and hanna both went up 95 but both were garbage
 
SD said:
When was the last time we had a center along 95? Bertha 96? I can't pull any off memory

Fran went more west, Gaston was more of a US1, most of the recent storms have been fairly east
Click to expand...
Yeah best I can recall, Bertha, even that was slightly east of 95 I think but it certainly took that S to N path
 
SD said:
When was the last time we had a center along 95? Bertha 96? I can't pull any off memory
Click to expand...

Bertha probably.....the point is every storm is different.....in Isabel we were in the SW eye, we actually got inside the eye...max gust 55 mph on the other side of the eye they hit 100.....the center of Fran went 100 miles SW of us but we peaked at 106 here.....Florence and Dorian never broke 50....Irene was the same distance away as both Flo and Dorian and we got cane gust.....a lot comes down to the structure of the storm, is it ramping up or down, how big is the core winds etc.....

At this point it sure looks like MBY will be within 50-100 miles of the center of this storm....guess we shall see what we get but I will hedge my bets and get ready for a legit cane and no power for 3 days.
 
Shaggy said:
Me and downeastnc continue to "debate" the proper crossing through NC. He is of the belief a track even through the sounds is sufficient i say the core right up between 95 and 17 or bust!
Click to expand...
Bring her right up 95 or 40. Either one would bring me pretty darn good conditions . 40 perhaps more so as I would be East , ne of the center and in the worse part of the eye wall. Fran pretty much went right up 40! Eye was over downtown Raleigh . 6 + hours of 60 mph sustained winds, even had a period of sustained hurricane winds with gusts into the 80s parts of the county. Hazel though would take the cake , think sustained winds in Raleigh airport which mind you is pretty nw in the county were 78 mph I believe at peak, not gusts but sustained 2 minute winds ! can’t imagine how intense they were say in southern wake county !
 
Verbatim the 6z euro would be a big sigh of relief for NC residents. The remnants would likely get swept up and bring some rain to the area and some gusty winds maybe but that’s about it.
 
I'm just going to watch where it goes today before speculating where it's going. The storm might flare back up and intensify as well as reorganize. The Euro shifting seems weird but I also want to see the 12Z suite.
 
One interesting fact, last major hurricane strike in NC was Fran in 1996! 24 years ago. Since then the population has swelled and quite a few people have “ hurricane amnesia “ met a girl from Pittsburgh down in Wilmington who said “ oh hurricanes aren’t too bad here we are too far north”. Average return period for a major hurricane landfall in NC is 18 years . Statistically overdue , although could go another decade before a major , or see 2 back to back majors . Matthews , Dorian , Florence were all bad because of rain, but unless you lived next to a river or immediately on the coast you were probably fine . It can be much worse which I don’t think many people realize .
 
Assuming the 6z Euro is out to lunch, and we get a landfall in the Carolinas, does anyone have any idea where I could find the tide schedule for Monday. The full moon is Monday and that plus a landfalling hurricane at high tide could be a bad deal.
 
Lickwx said:
One interesting fact, last major hurricane strike in NC was Fran in 1996! 24 years ago. Since then the population has swelled and quite a few people have “ hurricane amnesia “ met a girl from Pittsburgh down in Wilmington who said “ oh hurricanes aren’t too bad here we are too far north”. Average return period for a major hurricane landfall in NC is 18 years . Statistically overdue , although could go another decade before a major , or see 2 back to back majors . Matthews , Dorian , Florence were all bad because of rain, but unless you lived next to a river or immediately on the coast you were probably fine . It can be much worse which I don’t think many people realize .
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This is so true. My neighbors are from Buffalo they asked me yesterday how bad hurricanes were around here because we were so far away from the beaches and they shouldn't be bad. I told him to Google Fran and Hazel and report back.
 
Cary_Snow95 said:
Interesting the Euro is doing this. 06z GEFS made a big shift to taking it over Florida. Average is over land
View attachment 45570
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Losing the eastward escaping members isn't a good thing. I think part of this is too a weaker system is far more likely to be biased west with its track and now more models are showing a lopsided system with some shear and possible dry air issues.
 
Lickwx said:
One interesting fact, last major hurricane strike in NC was Fran in 1996! 24 years ago. Since then the population has swelled and quite a few people have “ hurricane amnesia “ met a girl from Pittsburgh down in Wilmington who said “ oh hurricanes aren’t too bad here we are too far north”. Average return period for a major hurricane landfall in NC is 18 years . Statistically overdue , although could go another decade before a major , or see 2 back to back majors . Matthews , Dorian , Florence were all bad because of rain, but unless you lived next to a river or immediately on the coast you were probably fine . It can be much worse which I don’t think many people realize .
Click to expand...
You are correct, we’re at a point now that the whole Carolina coast is due for a major to make landfall. It seems we’ve had a number of majors approach but fir some reason they’ve weakened on approach. Something else to keep in mind is that as quickly as this thing is moving, anyone who gets in the right front quadrant of the storm can add that forward speed to the wind speed making things that much worse.
 
SD said:
Losing the eastward escaping members isn't a good thing. I think part of this is too a weaker system is far more likely to be biased west with its track and now more models are showing a lopsided system with some shear and possible dry air issues.
Click to expand...

Is the 1001mb initlaized plot also playing a role since its stronger than that already?
 
SD said:
That gfs run backs TS sustained winds to 95 probably a rough ride for you and I along with rain cold, lick, and the greenville crew.
Click to expand...

Don’t forget about me, you brain dead twit. LOL


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Shaggy said:
Bertha was basically due north from topsail to greenville. My first eye of a hurricane. Hearing the roar of the winds as the backside approached is not something I'll forget.

I believe ernesto and hanna both went up 95 but both were garbage
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I had $30K plus worth of damage to my home from Bertha. My daughter was only a year old and my now ex-wife was pregnant with our second daughter. Storm hit on her birthday. Lost a pool, a huge deck, a couple of trees, roof, gutters, windows, back door, garage door, interior home damage. You name it, we got it.


Edit: My bad. That was Isabel.

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SD said:
This is so true. My neighbors are from Buffalo they asked me yesterday how bad hurricanes were around here because we were so far away from the beaches and they shouldn't be bad. I told him to Google Fran and Hazel and report back.
Click to expand...

My back side neighbors are from Indiana. Across the street are from Plattsburgh, NY. Two houses down, Detroit, MI. Also behind me are from Ohio. None have seen a hurricane. They have asked me a few times about them since they moved in, but the only ones they have seen are Matthew and Dorian. That’s what they think hurricanes are like around here.


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Shaggy said:
Is the 1001mb initlaized plot also playing a role since its stronger than that already?
Click to expand...
Personally I would say no. I think it's more tied to the system not wrapping up and deepening through the southern/southeast Bahamas. A less vertically stacked/tall/impressive system is likely to be pushed farther west by the low/mid levels since the WAR increases in strength and westward expansion as you decrease with height. I could be way off base here but if you look at how bouncy the 6z Euro maps are that were posted you have to think that as convection fires over the LLC and to its NE the center will get pulled more poleward but as that convection wanes it starts to bend back more west.
 
tramadoc said:
My back side neighbors are from Indiana. Across the street are from Plattsburgh, NY. Two houses down, Detroit, MI. Also behind me are from Ohio. None have seen a hurricane. They have asked me a few times about them since they moved in, but the only ones they have seen are Matthew and Dorian. That’s what they think hurricanes are like around here.


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Click to expand...
Dang , so even way out in Elizabeth city far from any major job market northerners are pouring in . Lol.
 
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