Avalanche
Member
I'll take it. Getting dry here.
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Pattern June Presented by: Heat and Humidity
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
I'll take it. Getting dry here.
smast16
Member
BufordWX
Member
Interested to see a marginal risk of severe weather from central Louisiana to roughly Charlotte tomorrow. I thought we would be drier this weekend.
smast16
Member
Guess the dust wasn't as thicc as predicted.
I wanna bet this MCS comes in a few hours early, but that’s prolly the best lookin NW flow MCS I’ve seen this year 
What's crazy is the thickest area of dust was centered over NC a few days ago (predicted), it's "trended" more South over the last couple days so I could see how a MCS could make it into parts of NC later this weekend and not be affected much by the dust.
Yeah you did a great job on your video on the dust yesterday that I saw.
I appreciate that man, thanks for watching also!
Yeah I enjoy seeing brilliant sun rises/sun sets and the weather enthusiast in me wants the heaviest coverage right over my head; but overall it's probably not good to be under the sand particles (..air quality and all).
That’s a mean MCV 
BHS1975
Member
BufordWX
Member
Heading back home today. Since I have been gone my house has recorded measurable rainfall each day since Sunday including today (picked up .01 at 2:00 AM). I’m curious to see if that streak will go any farther after today.
Yeah it’s not the best, given the strong LLJ tho and moist Boundary layer and advection of cape from our west there will still be MUcape, and I wanna bet the MCS would arrive earlier, as most of the time the models fail to pick up on the speed of the MCS and its rear inflow jet that speeds it up
Yup. The last couple of MCS's (granted it's been a while) have definitely sped up as they moved into Charlotte.
JHS
Member
Our worst MCS in2011 rolled through here after midnight and kept going all the way to the coast. If the dynamics are good enough this one can too.
That 2011 system had multiple 80+ gusts in it and over 90 estimated in York county.
That 2011 system had multiple 80+ gusts in it and over 90 estimated in York county.
BufordWX
Member
Did the Euro just try to form a tropical system over land?
NoSnowATL
Member
2020
Euro brings the MCV during peak heating Sunday, so basically, the gfs brings it in late Monday, the nam brings it in Sunday night, and the euro brings it in peak heating Sunday 
NAM looks like it’s gonna bring that big MCV thru on Monday during the afternoon now, lol 
So basically it will be during the coldest darkest part of the day and decaying. If you take an average
Is 15-18z during the dark in wilkesboro ?
cd2play
Member
It will probably have too much energy, so the storm gets so big it self destructs.
Do you ever contemplate thoughts before you type stuff like that? Or are you just trying to troll us?
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The northern fringes of the Saharan Dust induced EML is typically where severe would be favored in a setup like this need just enough of an EML to cap the mid-levels but not so much that you deter convection entirely and be close enough to pre-existing cold pools from upstream convection over the OH Valley to experience underrunning of the relatively warmer, moister air over the SE US.
D
Deleted member 1449
Guest
It's always dark in the gloom of Wilkes!
Another crazy cool day for June, quite windy too. We briefly touched 79 earlier and its been in the mid 70s ever since, humid however.
JHS
Member
Our upper level low is back on the Euro for the July 4 holiday.
Sunset
NAM made another ridiculous Change with the MCV, this run vs the last one 
BHS1975
Member
MCVs are the hard to pin down this far out. They usually end up as a nowcasting event
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Wow, day 2 slight 
What an interesting (well, not really) lackluster summer we're having so far in SE Tennessee. Not as cool as points further northeast. Knoxville and co. are actually well below normal for June, here in CHA it's a little above average. Lots of muted cloud cover temps in the afternoon. mid to upper 80s. Not too many 70+ overnight lows until last few days. I like it over extreme heat and dry anyday. Keep it coming... throw in some interesting canes to follow in August.
JHS
Member
GSP seems to think instability may be in question for tomorrow's threat. RAH seems to think SC and southern NC have a decent threat of damaging winds tomorrow with a smaller threat for the Triad and Triangle. Looks like another decent shot for storms on Monday too. Guess we'll just have to wait and see.
Will have unofficial watch and warnings out tonight in advance posted in banner
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Last hour observation at ATL was Dust!
NAMs look good for some decent convection tomorrow. Since ill be out of town book it