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Pattern June Presented by: Heat and Humidity

Interested to see a marginal risk of severe weather from central Louisiana to roughly Charlotte tomorrow. I thought we would be drier this weekend.
 
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What's crazy is the thickest area of dust was centered over NC a few days ago (predicted), it's "trended" more South over the last couple days so I could see how a MCS could make it into parts of NC later this weekend and not be affected much by the dust.
Yeah you did a great job on your video on the dust yesterday that I saw.
 
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What's crazy is the thickest area of dust was centered over NC a few days ago (predicted), it's "trended" more South over the last couple days so I could see how a MCS could make it into parts of NC later this weekend and not be affected much by the dust.
Yeah I enjoy seeing brilliant sun rises/sun sets and the weather enthusiast in me wants the heaviest coverage right over my head; but overall it's probably not good to be under the sand particles (..air quality and all).
 
Heading back home today. Since I have been gone my house has recorded measurable rainfall each day since Sunday including today (picked up .01 at 2:00 AM). I’m curious to see if that streak will go any farther after today.
 
Timing is horrible, couldn’t be worse.


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Yeah it’s not the best, given the strong LLJ tho and moist Boundary layer and advection of cape from our west there will still be MUcape, and I wanna bet the MCS would arrive earlier, as most of the time the models fail to pick up on the speed of the MCS and its rear inflow jet that speeds it up 8D0E4E0A-1E1F-426F-8318-4E23DF2CC0FA.png
 
Yeah it’s not the best, given the strong LLJ tho and moist Boundary layer and advection of cape from our west there will still be MUcape, and I wanna bet the MCS would arrive earlier, as most of the time the models fail to pick up on the speed of the MCS and its rear inflow jet that speeds it up View attachment 43381

Yup. The last couple of MCS's (granted it's been a while) have definitely sped up as they moved into Charlotte.
 
Our worst MCS in2011 rolled through here after midnight and kept going all the way to the coast. If the dynamics are good enough this one can too.

That 2011 system had multiple 80+ gusts in it and over 90 estimated in York county.
 
Euro brings the MCV during peak heating Sunday, so basically, the gfs brings it in late Monday, the nam brings it in Sunday night, and the euro brings it in peak heating Sunday 9120803F-587C-4256-A1B3-E708A4E4922F.png22959A52-C234-41E2-ABCC-09220E8567F7.jpegA725D5F2-667D-4CE2-8E60-6158CCE8BDD8.jpegC766A0CC-3145-4CE5-810D-4FD743FF9ADD.jpeg
 
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