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Pattern Ah-choo April Discussion

I don't really like VERY hot weather, but cooler than average temps and lots of wind has appeared too late for my liking. It's mainly the wind. My ears were ringing after I spent around 25 minutes outside yesterday.
 
pcbjr said:
absolutely cannot get over a 67º at 1:00 PM on a sunny, cloudless April 7th ... :D
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It is absolutely a wonderful spring day! This weekend's combo of cool and Masters is awesome!

Gainesville, a city I've been closely following, often seems to be a good illustration of GFS biases (using MeteoStar at the airport station):

1) The 6Z GFS had their low only down to 50 whereas it actually got down to 44. So, it was a whopping 6 too warm on a run from just 6 hour ago!

2) That same run has their high for today at only 69. It was already 70 as of 2 PM vs the GFS prediction of only 68 for then. I'm guessing 72-3 for a high (still a beautiful day, regardless). Let's see what the high ends up being.

3) That run has their low tonight only down to 47! This is setting up to be a huge bust of 8-12 considering its warm bias there when there are good radiational cooling conditions and considering that its dewpoint is now 9 lower than the 6Z GFS prediction.
 
GaWx said:
It is absolutely a wonderful spring day! This weekend's combo of cool and Masters is awesome!

Gainesville, a city I've been closely following, often seems to be a good illustration of GFS biases (using MeteoStar at the airport station):

1) The 6Z GFS had their low only down to 50 whereas it actually got down to 44. So, it was a whopping 6 too warm on a run from just 6 hour ago!

2) That same run has their high for today at only 69. It was already 70 as of 2 PM vs the GFS prediction of only 68 for then. I'm guessing 72-3 for a high (still a beautiful day, regardless). Let's see what the high ends up being.

3) That run has their low tonight only down to 47! This is setting up to be a huge bust of 8-12 considering its warm bias there when there are good radiational cooling conditions and considering that its dewpoint is now 9 lower than the 6Z GFS prediction.
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still thinking 39º ... :p
 
olhausen said:
I'm under a freeze warning tonight for most likely the last time this season. I'm not quite sure I'll get to freezing though as I'm almost at 60 degrees right now. That's about 6 degrees warmer then what was forecasted.
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Good luck! It's gonna be a long while after this ... :mad:
 
Going way out on a limb (Larry) - but it's feelin' more like 38º might be in the air -- dry and the wind is subsiding ... we'll see!
 
pcbjr said:
Going way out on a limb (Larry) - but it's feelin' more like 38º might be in the air -- dry and the wind is subsiding ... we'll see!
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Well, let's see. The official high was 72. In typical fashion for the high
in these situations there, the GFS was 3 too cool. However, the GFS is typically way too warm on promising very radiational cooling nights like tonight. Moreover, it currently has the dewpoint 10 too high.

On two occasions during the mid March very cold shot with a similarly good radiation setup, it dropped 32 from the prior day's high. A few days later, it dropped a whopping 39. Nights are a bit shorter than a few weeks ago but that shouldn't be a big factor. The current dew point is way down at 26. The cold high center won't quite get down that far but the center will be down into AL allowing for very light winds late along with clear skies and early morning very low dewpoints that will likely not be any warmer than 32. With the three coldest lows for 4/8 being 34-35, I'm going to go further out on the limb than you with a drop of 37 to 35. The 12Z hrs has a low only down to 48! Gainesville is going to show off tonight and show who is King of Deep South US radiational cooling.
 
GaWx said:
Well, let's see. The official high was 72. In typical fashion for the high
in these situations there, the GFS was 3 too cool. However, the GFS is typically way too warm on promising very radiational cooling nights like tonight. Moreover, it currently has the dewpoint 10 too high.

On two occasions during the mid March very cold shot with a similarly good radiation setup, it dropped 32 from the prior day's high. A few days later, it dropped a whopping 39. Nights are a bit shorter than a few weeks ago but that shouldn't be a big factor. The current dew point is way down at 26. The cold high center won't quite get down that far but the center will be down into AL allowing for very light winds late along with clear skies and early morning very low dewpoints that will likely not be any warmer than 32. With the three coldest lows for 4/8 being 34-35, I'm going to go further out on the limb than you with a drop of 37 to 35. The 12Z hrs has a low only down to 48! Gainesville is going to show off tonight and show who is King of Deep South US radiational cooling.
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Larry - I'm with you but I don't want to get banned or castigated for being overly optimistic! :p I did tell she who keeps me sane (my wife) - 36º, and all she said was shi ... oops - I probably shouldn't finish that one!
We'll see and very nice analysis, as always, of course!
Best!
Phil
 
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PS Larry - the air is absolutely dead still and dry as a bone ... recipe? o_O
(rhetorical question ... LOL)
 
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Larry - one other thing before we head out to BallyHoo - get yourself situated on the members map!
 
pcbjr said:
Larry - one other thing before we head out to BallyHoo - get yourself situated on the members map!
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I have to go walking now. I took a quick look but wasn't sure what to do. I'll check it again later.
 
GaWx said:
I have to go walking now. I took a quick look but wasn't sure what to do. I'll check it again later.
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Enjoy! I'll get mine @ 5:30 or so tomorrow AM, as per usual.
Gonna ZZZZzzzz soon, so hopefully will catch your thoughts in the AM early, and hopefully - I'll need a light sweatshirt then ... :cool:
 
Wore a jacket for precautionary reasons but I found that it was less windy so it wasn't bad outside when I went walking! Tomorrow is going to have perfect April weather here.
 
It's azalea planting day! Got 3 Girard's Hot Shot plants delivered by FedEx Thursday. I ordered these Feb. 25th, and naturally, they weren't delivered until we were going to have a couple of cold nights. I'll be glad to get them out of the garage and in the ground today. :)
 
SD said:
Dang 34 here

Sent from my SM-G928V using Tapatalk
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Officially 32 at the airport so that 27 bout right on for me....had to scrape ice off windshield, very frosty this morning

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pcbjr said:
Enjoy! I'll get mine @ 5:30 or so tomorrow AM, as per usual.
Gonna ZZZZzzzz soon, so hopefully will catch your thoughts in the AM early, and hopefully - I'll need a light sweatshirt then ... :cool:
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My walk was great & I'm looking forward to this evening's.

On another subject, Gainesville has had much better nights:

https://www.google.com/search?q=pit...gB&biw=568&bih=232&dpr=2#imgrc=ZHj-IlAmkbdayM:

The low got down only to
42 (30 drop from the 72 high) vs my prediction of 35, the NWS prediction of 39, and the GFS prediction of 48. So this was a big humbling bust for me but it also shows how unpredictable can be radiational cooling. Palatka, which is only 40 miles to the east and isn't an especially colder spot, got down to 37 by 5AM!

http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KJAX/1704080047.fxus62.html

Looking ahead, the 6Z GFS has their high at 73. I'm going with 76. Tonight it has a low of 51 while the NWS has 46. I'm going with 45. This is fun.
 
GaWx said:
My walk was great & I'm looking forward to this evening's.

On another subject, Gainesville has had much better nights:

https://www.google.com/search?q=pit...gB&biw=568&bih=232&dpr=2#imgrc=ZHj-IlAmkbdayM:

The low got down only to
42 (30 drop from the 72 high) vs my prediction of 35, the NWS prediction of 39, and the GFS prediction of 48. So this was a big humbling bust for me but it also shows how unpredictable can be radiational cooling. Palatka, which is only 40 miles to the east and isn't an especially colder spot, got down to 37 by 5AM!

http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KJAX/1704080047.fxus62.html

Looking ahead, the 6Z GFS has their high at 73. I'm going with 76. Tonight it has a low of 51 while the NWS has 46. I'm going with 45. This is fun.
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big bust for yours truly as well and i'm hiding under a rock ... :oops:

but, yes, it is fun and educational ... :)

thanks for all of your input on everything .... ;)

best,
phil
 
GaWx said:
My walk was great & I'm looking forward to this evening's.

On another subject, Gainesville has had much better nights:

https://www.google.com/search?q=pit...gB&biw=568&bih=232&dpr=2#imgrc=ZHj-IlAmkbdayM:

The low got down only to
42 (30 drop from the 72 high) vs my prediction of 35, the NWS prediction of 39, and the GFS prediction of 48. So this was a big humbling bust for me but it also shows how unpredictable can be radiational cooling. Palatka, which is only 40 miles to the east and isn't an especially colder spot, got down to 37 by 5AM!

http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KJAX/1704080047.fxus62.html

Looking ahead, the 6Z GFS has their high at 73. I'm going with 76. Tonight it has a low of 51 while the NWS has 46. I'm going with 45. This is fun.
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1:00 PM and still under 70º !!!!!!!! :D
 
skywatcher said:
I can't think of one single purpose on this earth that wasps serve, other than to freak me out
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they serve one other purpose - making my son do world record sprints on the trail when hiking ... moves his otherwise slow rear end ... LOL
 
pcbjr said:
they serve one other purpose - making my son do world record sprints on the trail when hiking ... moves his otherwise slow rear end ... LOL
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I must look something like Elaine doing her Seinfeld dance in extremely fast motion. I have no pride when it comes to those evil creatures.
 
GaWx said:
It is absolutely a wonderful spring day! This weekend's combo of cool and Masters is awesome!

Gainesville, a city I've been closely following, often seems to be a good illustration of GFS biases (using MeteoStar at the airport station):

1) The 6Z GFS had their low only down to 50 whereas it actually got down to 44. So, it was a whopping 6 too warm on a run from just 6 hour ago!

2) That same run has their high for today at only 69. It was already 70 as of 2 PM vs the GFS prediction of only 68 for then. I'm guessing 72-3 for a high (still a beautiful day, regardless). Let's see what the high ends up being.

3) That run has their low tonight only down to 47! This is setting up to be a huge bust of 8-12 considering its warm bias there when there are good radiational cooling conditions and considering that its dewpoint is now 9 lower than the 6Z GFS prediction.
Click to expand...

74º and beautiful, Larry; pretty spot-on call ... :D
 
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Looking at the GFS runs out to the horizon - almost seems to wanna be seasonal and behave for a while ...

(another pcbjr bust???? :eek:)
 
... and back to weather - draw your own conclusions :D:

NCPE_phase_21m_full.gif


combined_image.png

Let's see ... o_O
 
... and more back to weather - summer coming soon and hot and dry? CPC is suggesting a start that way -

summary_CFSv2.Na_Prec_Prob.201705.gif


summary_CFSv2.Na_T2m_Prob.201705.gif
 
Larry/Webb/Jon - MJO thoughts?
Phil

(back to learnin' in other words) :cool:
 
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Time for some warm weather. I'm over this cold crap in April.


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