4/11/20 - 4/13/20 Severe Weather Outbreak

[La Plata]

So far, you can clearly see the effects of the meager low level lapse rates and high shear on radar.

What are you looking at to monitor lapse rates? Other than the SPC mesoanalysis?

So far, you can clearly see the effects of the meager low level lapse rates and high shear on radar.

Right now, the less than impressive low level lapse rates are the saving grace for this event. That said, they're forecast to rise a decent bit over the next several hours and I believe they could be a little underdone in modeling as the warm front continues to advect in warmer and more unstable air.

That said, I think you're highlighting something very important as if the 0-3km lapse rates don't improve then that's the most likely failure mode for this event. Ideally you want to see them over 7 and it's very possible we don't get anywhere near that close. It's a nailbiter to be honest. If we do get better lapse rates in the lower levels I think we'll see this event pick up substantially.

 

[RBR71]

Rah NWS very concerned about tomorrow....

The severe threat is looking increasingly alarming. IMO the most
remarkable/concerning aspect is the HREF high probabilities(80-90%)
that show moderate instability(1000-1500 J/Kg) spreading west to
east across central NC, amidst the large 0-1 km hodographs and 400-
500 m/s of helicity created by the incredibly strong low-level shear
moving through the region. This environment will be highly conducive
for widespread thunderstorm wind damage, tornadoes and large hail
across the area between 09Z(4am) to 16z(Noon), with the pending of
evolution/mode of the convection(line/bow segment vs. discrete
supercells) playing a critical role in what the main severe threat
will be.

 

[Snowflowxxl]

The McComb storm is about to go nuts

 

[jackendrickwx]

Adair is on the storm near the MS/AL border

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

@Myfrotho704_ how we looking in the upstate later. Wedge is holding so far. It’s actually pretty chilly right now.

 

[Zander98al]

Its really getting its act together. This one could blow up

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

That’s not the color pixel you wanna see..woof

 

[Snowfan]

 

[deltadog03]

Which might make things worse

Yeah, it will likely break then, beforehand though is very much in doubt.

 

[La Plata]

Yeah, it will likely break then, beforehand though is very much in doubt.

It's going to be close. Right now, however, I suspect you're right. I'm a bit worried about mesocale features that could allow an isolated storm to bust through, but that will be hard to pickup on until it happens.

I think the trends are positive for now (meaning much less chance of isolated supercells) and hopefully they remain that way. I hate hate hate waiting on a CAP to see if all hell breaks loose or if a threat ends up subdued due to a lack of forcing to break it.

 

[Snowflowxxl]

 

[Zander98al]

Debris signature

 

[ryan1234]

I called it last night. That the I-77 corridor has the potential to be a hotspot for tornadoes. 10% hatched right up through Metro Charlotte. That's pretty significant. SPC even calling for strong tornadoes over us during the predawn hours. Buckle up folks, we're in for a LOOOONG night.

 

[DustinWx]

Under warning

 

[Downeastnc]

TDS on that Brookville MS tornado

 

[deltadog03]

 

[Zander98al]

Check out this

 

[DustinWx]

Carrollton Alabama

 

[Snowfan]

 

[Zander98al]

Tornado on the ground with this one

 

[Snowfan]

Carrollton Alabama

Stay safe!

 

[Snowfan]

 

[Zander98al]

Debris with the south MS tornado

 

[GeorgiaGirl]

Saw an overturned semi and some other damage on Brett Adair's stream a little over 10 minutes ago, they think they also saw that tornado beginning to touch down but just missed on other things.

Edit: They just passed by the semi again slowly. Hope the driver is OK.

 

[Zander98al]

Bigger debris ball now. This thing is unreal

 

[La Plata]

Storm in Southern MS is in an area of better 0-3km lapse rates per SPC. Don't think that's a coincidence. Let's hope ARCC correctly sussed out what might be mitigating the development of discrete cells elsewhere.

 

[jackendrickwx]

 

[Myfrotho704_]

@Myfrotho704_ how we looking in the upstate later. Wedge is holding so far. It’s actually pretty chilly right now.

I think it’s gonna break, but some areas to your north could hold on to the CAD

 

[mbway091]

I called it last night. That the I-77 corridor has the potential to be a hotspot for tornadoes. 10% hatched right up through Metro Charlotte. That's pretty significant. SPC even calling for strong tornadoes over us during the predawn hours. Buckle up folks, we're in for a LOOOONG night.

My girlfriend and I are relocating somewhere slightly safer than our apartment for the night. Hopefully this ends up being a bust, but things don't look great here.

 

[Zander98al]

 

[BirdManDoomW]

Props to SPC another good call that matches what I think..enhanced for extreme south-west Virginia, eastern TN and north-west NC. I fill like next update will continue large enhanced risk for most of Virginia and even south to Raleigh NC.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Storm in Southern MS is in an area of better 0-3km lapse rates per SPC. Don't think that's a coincidence. Let's hope ARCC correctly sussed out what might be mitigating the development of discrete cells elsewhere.

That and better low level instability, it’s worth noting that low level instability has increased in central-southern AL

 

[jackendrickwx]

PDS warning on the southern MS storm

 

[jackendrickwx]

PDS on both now

 

[Zander98al]

Can anybody get gate to gate shear on this tornado?

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Tornado south of Montecello looks nasty..that actually might be the big one ? don’t see a couplet like that everyday

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Can anybody get gate to gate shear on this tornado?View attachment 39209View attachment 39210

That couplet is insane

 

[Zander98al]

That couplet is insane

The debris ball keeps getting bigger too, one of the biggest ive ever seen

 

[BufordWX]

Hoo boy

 

[BufordWX]

Hoo boyView attachment 39212

Tornado emergency now.