• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Severe Severe Threat April 5th-7th

If the faster solutions place out eastern Mississippi and western Alabama would be removed from the best instability


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
12z euro was a little faster this run with the front but it's still a touch slower vs the GFS . I'd still say the greatest threat at this point is eastern Alabama into Georgia


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Kbmx
a256e5eebaadf72db4af826b3bb2243f.jpg



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Well the 00z NAM looks far more juiced up vs previous runs and looks like it slowed down this run


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
You have to wonder if the GFS is gonna be right or if it's gonna fall flat in it's face yet again. This model , I swear . To be fair it does look like it's been slowing down over the past few runs


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
SPCs day 3 is going to need to be pulled back to the west given current modeling. I'm sure what has changed if anything this year but their outlooks have been garbage


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Yeah still looking for Day 3 Outlook Wednesday still appears to be on Track from what I seen to be another broad threat
 
ohh Geez looks like 2 different threat periods per the NAM now for West Georgia 18z has STPs between 1.5-4 and storms moving thru and then again secondary line forms and moves thru around 00z to 03z with STPs even higher
 
Gonna be interesting to see how the morning storms along the warm front impact the afternoon development


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Storm5 said:
Gonna be interesting to see how the morning storms along the warm front impact the afternoon development


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
Indeed right now it seems spaced out enough where you do have 2 different storm fronts to worry about 1st round isn't the greatest but still much like today enough to get job done 2nd round could be a very strong
 
Arcc said:
Both from 18z NAM showing a very dangerous and rare early to mid morning threat.

VV at 700mb

weather-816572.jpg


Sounding from near BHM same time.

nam_2017040318_045_33.29--86.6.png
Click to expand...

Yeah that morning threat is nothing to sleep on for sure


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Hopefully it's not as bad as it could be.

I haven't really been paying attention to the accuracy but how accurate is the NAM in regards to Severe Wx?
 
GFS is about 4 hours faster than the NAM and EURO is about 2 hours slower than the GFS
 
NorthBamaWeather said:
GFS is about 4 hours faster than the NAM and EURO is about 2 hours slower than the GFS
Click to expand...

Yep gfs implies less of a secondary threat being that fast . Could be correct as the euro isn't that far behind .

NAM is the slowest which raises red flags and because it's the NAM


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Storm5 said:
Once a damn day?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
Probably for days 3-8 they keep it once a day. I wouldn't put much stock into days 3-8 anyway on the SPC maps, except for event areas and timing really. Strength of the event should be in better picture by tomorrow evening I feel.
 
Local mets are saying more rain in the morning with round 1 of storms for the TN Valley would help to stabilize the atmosphere for the afternoon round 2 of storms. But, they are watching forecast guidance slowing the system, possibly allowing for significant instability to develop across the entire state of AL. They are still uncertain, watching and waiting.
 
skywatcher said:
Local mets are saying more rain in the morning with round 1 of storms for the TN Valley would help to stabilize the atmosphere for the afternoon round 2 of storms. But, they are watching forecast guidance slowing the system, possibly allowing for significant instability to develop across the entire state of AL. They are still uncertain, watching and waiting.
Click to expand...

I'm no met and severe weather isn't really my thing but I don't agree with that at all. Almost all guidance is showing a fairly volatile atmosphere after the morning storms which by the way will be booking it NE . It's not like the models are showing a slow progression with the morning storms . If that were the case I could see the argument that they might stabilize the atmosphere some. But that's not the case


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top