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Wintry Winters Last Stand / March 11th-13th Winter Storm

Storm5

Storm5

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Well here we go. It's thread time

Prepare for Glory unless your shane and due to your negativity YOU can prepare for 34 and heavy rain


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Last edited:
Bufkit for overnight runs for RDU
0z: 1.1" all snow
06z: 0.64" all snow

Carry on.
 
Clarksville Tennessee sure is sitting pretty . Might end up being my spot


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If it's a battle of QPF between the Euro and the GFS I know which one I'm siding with. Funny thing is the EPS and GEFS are both wetter than their Operational counterparts.
 
SD said:
Similar to the operational maybe more in the 2-3 range across central NC vs 1-2.
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Thanks for the info! I'm wondering if anyone has looked at the super-ensembles-analog-thingy that shows years that have had a similar setup? I'm wondering if anything special is showing up?
 
SimeonNC said:
What about other parts of NC?
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As SD pointed out maybe 2-3 range for central NC and that's in a swath from the mountains due east to almost the coast, looks like Charlotte on the southern fringe of that, Rah is in it and I'm on the norther edge of the 2-3 swath with 1-2 either side of that.
 
00z eps
477307468b237c023fd37882e774b283.jpg

ec4da69ef7e507ada36cb6dd1c343869.jpg
706e07e6caf5ec91b2cf78a2e963cb30.jpg


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Storm5 said:
00z eps
477307468b237c023fd37882e774b283.jpg



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That's certainly south! E9 forever LOL! 13/ 50 now isn't that bad, but I am beginning to think at least far N GA has a decent chance, with NE GA in general having an okay chance. I can only wish that it was further south, but it's not too likely at the moment. Meanwhile on the RGEM... that high.
rgem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_16.png
 
Storm5 said:
One thing about the eps is the uptick in lighter events


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One thing to keep in mind is that we rarely see big dogs in reality, so all those fantasy 10 inchers aren't likely. I would bet more on a 3" - 5" event with heavier rates. However, seeing the inch or less members are indeed concerning.
 
ForsythSnow said:
One thing to keep in mind is that we rarely see big dogs in reality, so all those fantasy 10 inchers aren't likely. I would bet more on a 3" - 5" event with heavier rates. However, seeing the inch or less members are indeed concerning.
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A 3-5 inch storm would no doubt be considered a big dog . Of course many wouldn't call it that . But I agree with you that a ten inch storm isn't likely

#itsthesouth


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Storm5 said:
A 3-5 inch storm would no doubt be considered a big dog . Of course many wouldn't call it that . But I agree with you that a ten inch storm isn't likely

#itsthesouth


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I agree with that completely,although I'd rather see big dog model outputs leading up to the event b/c we can almost count on totals being at least half Yes I'm a :weenie:
 
Never been so excited about seeing snow away from home lol, if the trends keeps up, then TN is where I'll be
 
ForsythSnow said:
One thing to keep in mind is that we rarely see big dogs in reality, so all those fantasy 10 inchers aren't likely. I would bet more on a 3" - 5" event with heavier rates. However, seeing the inch or less members are indeed concerning.
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There's always a fantasy 10 incher, on someone's mind! :)
How much for central Meck!? :(
 
So far on the 12z NAM it appears to have shifted everything a good bit south. Matches the GFS wrt the vort at 54. In fact looks a little stronger and more south than the 6z GFS
 
packfan98 said:
Don't let metwannabe see the DGEX....shhh!!!!
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The D-who??? Lol... I've seen it....meh

Storm5 said:
I've been thinking about just banning him all together . Might need to take a poll


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I was always taught if you have nothing nice to say don't say anything at all...:cool:
 
Interesting. 15 00z EPS members now with snow in CAE. I do think the maps/meteograms have been fixed to remove zr/sleet from snow so that is interesting to see. Might not be too far off from getting some pingers/light ZR in the Northern Midlands.
 
Cary_Snow95 said:
So far on the 12z NAM it appears to have shifted everything a good bit south. Matches the GFS wrt the vort at 54. In fact looks a little stronger and more south than the 6z GFS
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Speaking of the NAM can't wait till we get inside it's wheelhouse and see what it's thermal profiles look like, it did the best job by far with the Jan system as far as that goes
 
Cary_Snow95 said:
So far on the 12z NAM it appears to have shifted everything a good bit south. Matches the GFS wrt the vort at 54. In fact looks a little stronger and more south than the 6z GFS
Click to expand...
Sweet! Getting NAM'd
 
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