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Pattern February Discussion part 3. Don's Winter Storm Hunt

SoutheastRidge said:
Not true. We had a lot of damage from Opal in 95 and we had tornadoes in my area from Hurricane Katrina.
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Opal was bad - I was on the AT near Neal Gap ... but all in all, I should have qualified, 'Cane season is no fun .... especially down here and along the entire Gulf coast.
 
This hurricane season could be slow if there will be a moderate to strong Nino. A weak Nino, hurricane season will be more active with canes that make landfall. I just hope that damn SER don't persist this summer. If it does, it's going to be miserable this summer.

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SnowHusky said:
This hurricane season could be slow if there will be a moderate to strong Nino. A weak Nino, hurricane season will be more active with canes that make landfall. I just hope that damn SER don't persist this summer. If it does, it's going to be miserable this summer.

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I don't see how in the world it could be as miserable as last summer
 
tennessee storm said:
the 78 79 winter sure was a very cold one... but best of my memory... winter 76-77 produced more snow for my area west tn... with extreme cold spells behind the systems that produced snow
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He's talking about contig US as a whole. In much of the SE, 1976-7 is the coldest on record. 1977-8 is second coldest. 1978-9 was a cold SE winter (Jan-Feb), but not nearly as cold as the prior two. Note that the 2nd coldest in contig US, 1935-6, was also quite cold in the SE.
 
1978-79 didn't look so cold in Central and South FL based on that map. Was there a persistent SE ridge that winter ?
 
SnowHusky said:
This hurricane season could be slow if there will be a moderate to strong Nino. A weak Nino, hurricane season will be more active with canes that make landfall. I just hope that damn SER don't persist this summer. If it does, it's going to be miserable this summer.

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Even without an El Nino, this hurricane season would struggle to be well above normal... Classic -AMO signature beginning to develop once again and the Atlantic Hadley Cell is still quite expansive (which likely contributed to abnormally high SAL of late and the hurricane seasons in the 2010s from really going nuts, esp 2010 (although it was quite active in its own right)). However, the low frequency warming of Atlantic SSTs should mitigate some of these other unfavorable parameters.
cdas-sflux_ssta_relative_global_1.png
 
If the SER does persist during 'cane season, this would mean the Bahamas and the east coast at a threat of 'canes. Some storms could even make their way into the GOM. I think Webber posted up SSTs anomalies in the Gulf and they are above normal. If that continues, this would mean that the Gulf basin will be busy this 'cane season. Everything depends on the SSTs out in the Pacific as well.

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SnowHusky said:
If the SER does persist during 'cane season, this would mean the Bahamas and the east coast at a threat of 'canes. Some storms could even make their way into the GOM. I think Webber posted up SSTs anomalies in the Gulf and they are above normal. If that continues, this would mean that the Gulf basin will be busy this 'cane season. Everything depends on the SSTs out in the Pacific as well.

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Persistence of the SER actually doesn't always bode well wrt landfalls on the eastern seaboard, a ridge over southeastern Canada (like we observed last summer) does however....
 
Webberweather53 said:
Persistence of the SER actually doesn't always bode well wrt landfalls on the eastern seaboard, a ridge over southeastern Canada (like we observed last summer) does however....
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True, it depends on the subtropical jet too, the jet can cause vertical shear which would mean less 'canes along the east and it would prevent storms in the Gulf basin.

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olhausen said:
Yep they get huge snows in march and even April up in Minnesota. My sister lives there and a lot of winters once the first snow falls you don't see bare ground until march or April.
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Since you love snow so much, you should move to MN :)
 
TOR-CON-10 said:
Here in central Mississippi, I hear several lawn mowers blaring their ugly noise in the neighborhood. Lots of green lawns around.
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It should be illegal to cut grass in February ! I've never done it and refuse to. I don't care how much the grass grows. March 1st is the earliest I will cut it.
 
Is it too early for a hurricane outlook thread? I thought there was a hurricane thread already, if there is, I'm not seeing it on tapatalk.

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In 2011-12 and 1879-80, ATL had 18 freezes through Feb. vs 15 so far this winter. Mar had 0 freezes.

However, in 1889-90, ATL had only 13 freezes through Feb & then had 10 in Mar. In 1931-2, ATL had only 8 freezes through Feb followed by 10 in Mar., which were all on consecutive days 3/6-15 and which incuded 3 snows along with one high of only 28!
 
GaWx said:
In 2011-12 and 1879-80, ATL had 18 freezes through Feb. vs 15 so far this winter. Mar had 0 freezes.

However, in 1889-90, ATL had only 13 freezes through Feb & then had 10 in Mar. In 1931-2, ATL had only 8 freezes through Feb followed by 10 in Mar., which were all on consecutive days 3/6-15 and which incuded 3 snows along with one high of only 28!
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and that was before Hartsfield - musta been real warm those cited years in 'Hotlanta other than March - good stats!
 
Could get wet in the SE

12_054_G1_north_america_zoomout_I_4_PAN_CLASSIC_0.jpg
 
There have been 6 long strings of days in strong phase 8 in Feb: 1978, 1988, 1999, 2006, 2010, & 2017. The three that peaked above 3.0 in amp were not cold. The 3 that peaked within 2-2.5 were all cold in the SE. Coincidence? I don't know. Thoughts anyone?
 
GaWx said:
There have been 6 long strings of days in strong phase 8 in Feb: 1978, 1988, 1999, 2006, 2010, & 2017. The three that peaked above 3.0 in amp were not cold. The 3 that peaked within 2-2.5 were all cold in the SE. Coincidence? I don't know. Thoughts anyone?
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This time of year, it seems that closer to the COD on the left is colder - no science here, just drawing from feeble memory...
 
GaWx said:
There have been 6 long strings of days in strong phase 8 in Feb: 1978, 1988, 1999, 2006, 2010, & 2017. The three that peaked above 3.0 in amp were not cold. The 3 that peaked within 2-2.5 were all cold in the SE. Coincidence? I don't know. Thoughts anyone?
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So you mean to tell me that there were no long strings of days in strong Phase 8 in Feb before 1978 ?
 
SoutheastRidge said:
So you mean to tell me that there were no long strings of days in strong Phase 8 in Feb before 1978 ?
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Feb records started in 1975.

On another subject, the PNA is forecasted to go into solid negative for the 6-15 day period. It is of no coincidence that the models are unanimous in showing a cold NW US and a warm SE US, the typical response to a solid -PNA.
 
I recognize that the Euro is the best model out there, no matter what happened with one storm but I'm cheap, I could care less about paying to gain full access to it. I realize this likely isn't a good idea, especially since I'm not the greatest at reading 500/surface maps but am getting better, but I take after my dad who will be cheap with things.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
I recognize that the Euro is the best model out there, no matter what happened with one storm but I'm cheap, I could care less about paying to gain full access to it. I realize this likely isn't a good idea, especially since I'm not the greatest at reading 500/surface maps but am getting better, but I take after my dad who will be cheap with things.
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Since it busted along with every other global model with the January storm I'm not going to be too hard on it but yeah, it's generally the best medium range model. I sure have wasted a lot of money on it this lame winter though. Funny thing is, none of the models have even given us much fantasy snow this winter.

ecmwf_gfs_nh_f120.png
 
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