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Pattern February Discussion part 3. Don's Winter Storm Hunt

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Well Temps definitely improved 12z run particular the 850 temps and a lil bit on surface... It was a improvement and 2 times on 25th and 27th period, I guess we wait for ensembles and future runs and see if something may sneak out for the SE by end of month?
 
olhausen said:
Well it looks like my sister who lives in Minneapolis Minnesota is going to get buried in about 20 inches of snow next week. The rich get richer!
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Maybe one day, I'll move far north and get the good snows. These winters down here are getting worse and worse. What happened to the classic winters here across the south?

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SnowHusky said:
Maybe one day, I'll move far north and get the good snows. These winters down here are getting worse and worse. What happened to the classic winters here across the south?

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We just had a good winter 3 years ago (and some 2 years ago) so it's not like it's been forever since we've had a good winter.
 
SnowHusky said:
Maybe one day, I'll move far north and get the good snows. These winters down here are getting worse and worse. What happened to the classic winters here across the south?

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Yep some day my wife and I want to move to the northeast. I absolutely love it when it's cold for some reason. Even if there's no snow I still prefer bone chilling cold vs hot and humid.
 
RollTide18 said:
We just had a good winter 3 years ago (and some 2 years ago) so it's not like it's been forever since we've had a good winter.
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True that, I wish it was a classic winter every winter, but unfortunately it's not going to be, cause things are always changing. Next winter, we better make up for this crap. I want a winter like 2013-'14 I think it was when the PV got locked in and we had back to back winter events. That winter was a good winter, and a classic one.

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Regarding the system around the 27th, how close is that to becoming a good Winter Storm say around the Memphis area according to most recent run of GFS?
 
SnowHusky said:
Maybe one day, I'll move far north and get the good snows. These winters down here are getting worse and worse. What happened to the classic winters here across the south?

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Hey Don,
Atlanta and many other areas just had classic old-fashioned solid winters in 2009-10, 2010-11, and 2013-4, each with a major winter storm. 3/1/2009 also saw a big snow. In 2014-5, some areas still got clocked by one Feb storm that was just a little north of ATL. Even ATL had a very cold Feb with a whopping 5 days with flurries! As you know, this winter did give ATL proper a moderate ice storm and gave a heavy snow to parts of TN and NC. ATL averaged 2.5" of SN/IP the last 9 winters, which is above the longterm average of 2.2".
So, it could be way worse!
 
GaWx said:
Hey Don,
Atlanta and many other areas just had classic old-fashioned solid winters in 2009-10, 2010-11, and 2013-4, each with a major winter storm. 3/1/2009 also saw a big snow. In 2014-5, some areas still got clocked by one Feb storm that was just a little north of ATL. Even ATL had a very cold Feb with a whopping 5 days with flurries! As you know, this winter did give ATL proper a moderate ice storm and gave a heavy snow to parts of TN and NC. ATL averaged 2.5" of SN/IP the last 9 winters, which is above the longterm average of 2.2".
So, it could be way worse!
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Yep, that's true too. Maybe next winter we'll be breaking the below normal temps instead of breaking above normal temps like we have been since fall.

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SD said:
I just noticed that we are back in drought conditions
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Yep, moderate drought back my way! Gonna suck if the summer is half as dry as last!
 
I'll be having a video up later today discussing about the pattern for late this month into March.

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Looks like we are baking at least into early March. At this rate we will be well into the mid 80's come mid March.


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ATLwxfan said:
Looks like we are baking at least into early March. At this rate we will be well into the mid 80's come mid March.


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No sarcasm here ... Yup, a distinct possibility ... not to dash hopes but ....
 
pcbjr said:
No sarcasm here ... Yup, a distinct possibility ... not to dash hopes but ....
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If it's been anything it's been predictable. Warm looks verify, cold looks don't. We won't know when this breaks down as we can't seem to reliably forecast it.


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Aside from a transient seasonable Cp airmass near the end of the month, the EPS is above-well above average for the upcoming 15 days in the southeastern US, oth, as others have noted, the EPS starts to look much cooler &/or threatening near the end of the period, and while this is still about 2 weeks out, given the formidable phase 2 MJO pulse forthcoming near the beginning of March w/ waning pacific forcing, it seems legitimate...

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FMA MJO temperature composites w/ significance. Note the temperature anomalies in the eastern US in phase 2 & 3 are not only below normal, but are also significant (indicated by the deeper blues/purple shading) which are essentially equivalent to p-values. 90-95% significance levels (% values less than or equal to 10% & 5% respectively) are often good benchmarks wrt statistical significance...

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^The cold biases of the models have been so prevalent but at least the EPS hasn't been nearly as bad as the GEFS. So, I'm at least hopeful for early March. And don't forget that two of the three warmest winters on record for much of the SE US, 1889-90 and 1931-2, had a cold early to mid March fwiw. So, we'll see!
 
The 12z GEFS (the control run of the GEFS) has a winter event during the 26th-27th, not buying that yet cause the GFS OP and the EPS has that system cutting and also there is limited skill at that range. Next week, there could be a lot of fun around here model watching wise.

Edit: the indices show the EPO tanking and a -NAO during that time period. The GFS and GEFS are in agreement as of now on the MJO - weak phase 1 (someone send me the link to all of the models that are shown on the MJO).
 
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SnowHusky said:
The 12z GEFS (the control run of the GEFS) has a winter event during the 26th-27th, not buying that yet cause the GFS OP and the EPS has that system cutting and also there is limited skill at that range. Next week, there could be a lot of fun around here model watching wise.

Edit: the indices show the EPO tanking and a -NAO during that time period. The GFS and GEFS are in agreement as of now on the MJO - weak phase 1 (someone send me the link to all of the models that are shown on the MJO).
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http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml

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