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Pattern February Discussion part 3. Don's Winter Storm Hunt

Lol, what in the world... This isn't likely to transpire but its probably worth making a point here (for those who aren't familiar w/ this concept) regarding potential vorticity, that will be useful later in the hurricane season, particularly when tropical cyclones are undergoing extratropical transition. Lol yeah that's a hybrid/shallow warm-core subtropical cyclone off the Carolina coast on the GFS, lol... You can tell this is at least a hybrid warm core because there's little-no temperature gradient &/or fronts across this disturbance, it's equatorward of the subtropical jet, and potential vorticity actually decreases as this storm intensifies off the Carolinas. Oth, note the higher potential vorticity in association with the trough over the midwest... In fact, potential vorticity is often utilized to distinguish between tropical and extratropical cyclones, extratropical cyclones derive potential vorticity from the stratospheric reservoir and bring it towards the mid-upper levels of the troposphere, while tropical cyclones derive it from the surface and carry it upwards into the low-mid levels of the troposphere, and thus tropical cyclones are usually characterized by lead to negative potential vorticity anomalies (denoted in the deeper blue and white colors below) at least on potential vorticity surfaces that are normally closer to the upper troposphere like the one depicted here. In general the 330K potential vorticity surface is found near 250mb or so (the upper troposphere)..

144 HR GFS forecast...
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192 HR GFS forecast. Note again the low off the SE US intensified while potential vorticity actually decreased, indicative that this system is at least partially warm core in the model.
gfs_pv330K_us_33.png
 
1. 2/15/2017's MJO was at am amplitude of 3.46 in phase 8, making it the 2nd strongest MJO phase 8 in Feb on record! The only stronger phase 8 Feb day was the 3.58 of 2/25/1988.


2. 2/15/17's PNA peaked at +2.04, making it the first met winter PNA day to reach +2.00 since 2/1983, when one day hit +2.08! The only other ones were on two days in 2/1968. As is often the case, the GEFS was slightly too low with its forecasts although it forecasted this very well.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Lol, what in the world... This isn't likely to transpire but its probably worth making a point here (for those who aren't familiar w/ this concept) regarding potential vorticity, that will be useful later in the hurricane season, particularly when tropical cyclones are undergoing extratropical transition. Lol yeah that's a hybrid/shallow warm-core subtropical cyclone off the Carolina coast on the GFS, lol... You can tell this is at least a hybrid warm core because there's little-no temperature gradient &/or fronts across this disturbance, it's equatorward of the subtropical jet, and potential vorticity actually decreases as this storm intensifies off the Carolinas. Oth, note the higher potential vorticity in association with the trough over the midwest... In fact, potential vorticity is often utilized to distinguish between tropical and extratropical cyclones, extratropical cyclones derive potential vorticity from the stratospheric reservoir and bring it towards the mid-upper levels of the troposphere, while tropical cyclones derive it from the surface and carry it upwards into the low-mid levels of the troposphere, and thus tropical cyclones are usually characterized by lead to negative potential vorticity anomalies (denoted in the deeper blue and white colors below) at least on potential vorticity surfaces that are normally closer to the upper troposphere like the one depicted here. In general the 330K potential vorticity surface is found near 250mb or so (the upper troposphere)..

144 HR GFS forecast...
View attachment 183


192 HR GFS forecast. Note again the low off the SE US intensified while potential vorticity actually decreased, indicative that this system is at least partially warm core in the model.
View attachment 182
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I see class is in session again... great stuff man, informative as always.

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metwannabe said:
I see class is in session again... great stuff man, informative as always.

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Sure, I'm glad you liked it! Yea, I honestly wished people would have explained potential vorticity to me like this, lol would have made life a lot easier... I don't think this has a legitimate chance of verifying atm, just thought this was a really good opportunity to give everyone here a bit more background knowledge on this topic going forward into the upcoming hurricane season... We usually see several extratropical transitions over the course of a hurricane season, so this is liable show up again before you know it.
 
SD said:
I also really wouldn't be too shocked to get a pretty significant system the first couple days of the month that is probably to our NW

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I agree with you
 
SD said:
Good to see Canada filling with cold air in late Feb. Still might eek something out during the first week of March the Alaskan ridge might be enough

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GFS is showing a possibility - cold coming down and moisture not too far away (sure - it's out there's a way and moisture and cold have not consummated a marriage yet, but they are holding hands and kissing) - FWIW

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Just sayin' ...
 
tennessee storm said:
wouldn't rule out a severe wx outreak right just before any cold takes place... with this big warmup taking place out ahead...
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The ones around the 24th and the 1st both have potential. I'm not sure about the 24th with the low well removed and the 1st might lack good moisture return either way though they are worth keeping an eye on

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This look is getting close but you need a little more western ridge and the vortex south of baffin Bay to help keep from having a weak ridge in the SE...that said I'm not disappointed in the look
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SD said:
This look is getting close but you need a little more western ridge and the vortex south of baffin Bay but at this lead time at least it's not horrific

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if i might - it's better than anything for a while ... fluke or a start? here's to "start"!

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pcbjr said:
if i might - it's better than anything for a while ... fluke or a start? here's to "start"!

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Hopefully a start but I worry in this look there is going to be too much energy dropping too far West and we see areas like the OV and lakes do well while we torch

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SD said:
Hopefully a start but I worry in this look there is going to be too much energy dropping too far West and we see areas like the OV and lakes do well while we torch

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"Worry" is our middle name down here - o_O
 
GaWx said:
Phil,
My temporary time in Gainesvile taught me one thing that I'll never forget and that also gave me my fondest memory: Gainesville, FL, is the radiation capital of the SE! I'd put them right up against most any major SE city in any radiation cooling contest. On a sunny day with low dewpoints and light winds, I just know that the temperatures will be taking a nosedive there starting in the last hour before sunset. I took many an evening walk last winter/spring and loved how it cooled so much on days like these.

At 4 PM Gainesville was a sunny and beautiful 67 with a dewpoint of 27 along with light westerly winds. It wouldn't shock me if they went down to 32 tonight! Regardless expect a beautiful frost in the morning. Get ready for the big plunge!
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You might well be right - they've dropped the official to 35º and it is dead calm out - no wind to stir heat. I'll be dadgummed ...

and remember, the airport is east and close to 3 big lakes that do tend to throw up some warmth (Lochlossa, Newnan's and Orange) - plus the Prairie ... NW Hogtown should be colder - it always is ....
 
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With such a warm winter we've been having, I really do feel that if a storm could "bomb" out and give us a good snowstorm. The reason why I think of this, is becuase after this warm episode and cold air coming down, this can trigger some strong storm systems. With more storms coming along the southern stream late this month and with cold air coming down excites me. I do think it will remain active in the southern stream mid month in March.

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pcbjr said:
You might well be right - they've dropped the official to 35º and it is dead calm out - no wind to stir heat. I'll be dadgummed ...
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35? My forecasted low is only 39 tonight so you are doing really good. Unfortunately it looks like last night was my last night of below freezing temps for at least a week or more.
 
olhausen said:
35? My forecasted low is only 39 tonight so you are doing really good. Unfortunately it looks like last night was my last night of below freezing temps for at least a week or more.
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You might be in a good spot late in the month and the first of March

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SD said:
You might be in a good spot late in the month and the first of March

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Hopefully I can pull off a march miracle! Tennessee actually gets quite a few early march snows. Not necessarily in my backyard every time but I can recall quite a few over the ten years I've lived here. Last one I had was 5 inches the first week of march back in 2015.

Edit: It was melted in 2 days but that's how it goes in march.
 
6z GFS is very active and cold rolling into March.
 
Euro weeklies looked surprisingly good yesterday, didn't see anyone post about them

The second week of March looks the best, but during the first week of March the west coast trough rolls east due to a strong -EPO. A SE Ridge pops but it eventually gets beat down during the first week of March. Week 2 of march looks good starting around 3/6 onward. It's also really cold, with strongly neg anoms around Hudson Bay, the coldest air is on our side of the globe...that's good.

I've been fooled by the weeklies before and given how this winter has gone I'm very hesitant in predicting any kind of sustainable pattern, even for 10 days or so. Getting another -EPO pattern like early January that spawned the Jan storm isn't out of the question, but I doubt we see sustained cold and stormy, for obvious reasons. The early Jan storm had a -EPO with a SE ridge that many were worried about, but it wasn't strong and actually helped NC cash in on that storm...sometimes SE ridges are good as long as they aren't overwhelmingly strong and are centered in the Atlantic.

We will likely see the Euro get in range to this pattern in the next 3 days or so, and we'll see how it goes. Cautiously optimistic is the phrase!



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I just took at weeklies too, they look stormy with system's cutting more than anything. If that's the case, winter is over. But, I'm not letting my guard down for winter storms until late March.

I like how the weekly shows a storm system showing up during the 12th-13th or so cause that's when the blizzard of '93 occured. Not saying that it's going to be a blizzard again. Some of the most wild weather can occur in March so we'll see what happens.

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Storm5 said:
well ok then
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Here come the modoki screamers . The above looks way overdone to me .

#lolmodoki

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Anyone want to take the bet against JB having a cold and snowy E US winter next winter? I certainly would not. If you were going to take the bet against him going cold, what kind of payoff on a $1 bet would you require if you were to get it right?
 
Essentially what HM is saying here is that exceptionally large El Nino events like 2014-16, 1997-98, 1877-78, etc lead to such massive alterations in the seasonal-interannual climate, specifically the upward step-changes in global temperature, that they're often semi-permanent and their impacts will reverberate throughout the climate system for years after they're gone.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Essentially what HM is saying here is that exceptionally large El Nino events like 2014-16, 1997-98, 1877-78, etc lead to such massive alterations in the seasonal-interannual climate, specifically the upward step-changes in global temperature, that they're often semi-permanent and their impacts will reverberate throughout the climate system for years after they're gone.
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We scored snow in the roaring, Godzilla Nino , in 15/16 winter, so I'll take it!
 
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