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Pattern February Discussion part 3. Don's Winter Storm Hunt

At the end of the 06z GFS, you can see the subtropical jet at work. Get cold air down, we'll have ocean effect snow pretty much. Lol. I wish that would happen, there would be a lot of snow if the cold air got locked and that river of moisture train keeps coming.

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SD said:
The western ridge on the EPS around days 13-15 just keeps getting more and more impressive....The OP gfs is also pretty hell bent on an active pattern around the start of March.
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Well if the Pacific has been somewhat of the driver all winter, as in driving us straight to hades, then maybe it can flip and drive us to glory land before it's all over. I have a feeling this is the year for some type of winter threat in March and as you mentioned the 1st week of March could just be it
 
Pycnic-Iso said:
I'm looking forward to the upcoming cold spring
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Hope that's what we get, to mitigate the year round summer that seems to be setting up. Looks like we'll need a good volcano to change global weather for a few years, just to get back to normal winters, lol. T
 
metwannabe said:
Well if the Pacific has been somewhat of the driver all winter, as in driving us straight to hades, then maybe it can flip and drive us to glory land before it's all over. I have a feeling this is the year for some type of winter threat in March and as you mentioned the 1st week of March could just be it
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So we will March from hades right into glory...All-in


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Should be interesting though at the end of 06z GFS, core of the cold still in Canada.


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The EPO goes negative after the 21st. The AO is still showing pretty much neutral, PNA is neutral the NAO is slightly positive on their 14 day outlooks. All the looks on the teleconnections will change. I think that things will adjust themselves during the pattern change and things will start to come to light.

Edit: I checked the SSTs out in the Pacific, the waters continue to warm. This is of course an indication of the pattern change.
 
and without editorial comment --

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I'm still keeping an eye on those two systems at hr 210, they can still possibly phase.
 
Well, this is an interesting GFS run, is this new developments? Could be, we'll have to see on feature runs. So close to a phase. I talked about that last week, next week may turn out to be interesting for sure.
 
This winter is like that South Park episode that has a evil teen calling Stan Marsh "Stan Darsh". This is mainly about what the adults were doing though. Every time they thought they let go of those guys that are advertising their condos, they'd end up right back into a room where they're advertising. In this winter, every time we thought that we had gotten rid of the warmth for a while, it'd just come right back quickly.
 
Those two systems sure do look interesting, I'm I buying that? no, absolutely not. Not right now cause this is the first time the GFS has that look. I will start to buy it if it holds true, that look that is showing on the 12z GFS and if we get ensemble support. If those two pieces phase, then you all know what that means. At 240, you can see there is a cold core, looks interesting up at H5, even some CAD going on in western NC.
 
SnowHusky said:
Those two systems sure do look interesting, I'm I buying that? no, absolutely not. Not right now cause this is the first time the GFS has that look. I will start to buy it if it holds true, that look that is showing on the 12z GFS and if we get ensemble support. If those two pieces phase, then you all know what that means. At 240, you can see there is a cold core, looks interesting up at H5, even some CAD going on in western NC.
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it's not even really that close . we would a phase way back to the south and east , not over the MA . It's a horrible look verbatim in my opinion

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SnowHusky said:
Well, this is an interesting GFS run, is this new developments? Could be, we'll have to see on feature runs. So close to a phase. I talked about that last week, next week may turn out to be interesting for sure.
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Yeah, did look interesting. Shane could be right about end of month into March.
 
RollTide18 said:
How so? (still learning after all these years haha)
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me too man . we are all still learning , nothing wrong with that.
it's way too far east for one. the ridge out west sucks beyond belief . We would want the whole 500 mb pattern like 700 plus miles to the west . oh and let's not forget there is no cold to be found . no cold source, horrible setup
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Storm5 said:
me too man . we are all still learning , nothing wrong with that.
it's way too far east for one. the ridge out west sucks beyond belief . We would want the whole 500 mb pattern like 700 plus miles to the west . oh and let's not forget there is no cold to be found . no cold source, horrible setup

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Its not horrific in that one image you posted above. the big problems are the complete lack of cold and the cutoff is of pacific origin. If you were to phase that shortwave in Wisconsin into it maybe you could get something going.
 
Storm5 said:
it's way too far east for one. the ridge out west sucks beyond belief . We would want the whole 500 mb pattern like 700 plus miles to the west . oh and let's not forget there is no cold to be found . no cold source, horrible setup
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Isn't this from last week's newspaper? LOL ;)
 
SD said:
Its not horrific in that one image you posted above. the big problems are the complete lack of cold and the cutoff is of pacific origin. If you were to phase that shortwave in Wisconsin into it maybe you could get something going.
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Yeah along the east coast . That's not a SE winter storm setup although it could work for you late. and of course met would get a foot . And as you pointed out and I said above. NO COLD SOURCE. not a threat



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Storm5 said:
Yeah along the east coast . That's not a SE winter storm setup although it could work for you late. and of course met would get a foot . And as you pointed out and I said above. NO COLD SOURCE. not a threat



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Insert grumpy cat picture here....

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SD said:
Insert grumpy cat picture here....

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verbatim the gfs op setup could work for you and the mid atlantic with a phase but as you pointed out temps would be the massive probem. It's getting late though. I just want someone on the board to score by March 5th . I would bet money that our NC friends have a threat

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Oh course it will be a horrible look cause the two pieces don't even phase, it they phased, it will have a great look. I'm not getting excited yet, just saying that it looks interesting. As we get closer and closer to this time period, of course the models will start to have a better handle. And with the PAC jet raging, we're going to see some crazy stuff on the models until like the 21st or so. No need to look for specifics, when the time period isn't even in the 5-7day window. Things will change! Here is what I think may happen, 1) the two pieces phases over the Mid-Atlantic and the NE gets all of the significant winter precip, while us here in the SE, some of us may end as some flurries. 2) if the phase occurs further south and east, we'll get some good snow from AL, GA, eastern TN upstate SC, up into NC and on north. 3) no phase at all and the low cuts and we end up getting a trailing cold front with thunder storms and possible severe weather. Colder and windy behind front, maybe some NW flow snow for eastern TN and western NC. That's what I'm thinking as of now.
 
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