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Pattern February Discussion part 3. Don's Winter Storm Hunt

Tarheel1 said:
Doesn't necessarily mean they will be at the end of summer or into fall, when they reall matter for our blockbuster 17/18 winter!
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Of course not, but ENSO is coupled to the annual cycle, and ENSO events usually begin festering in the late winter and spring, and tend to persist and grow with time as we get to the fall and winter. Plus we're at the time of the year when the tropical pacific is most sensitive to large-scale changes in the coupled ocean atmosphere system (due in part to the juxtaposition of the ITCZ wrt the equatorial counter current and the zonal Equatorial Pacific SST gradient), even relatively minute, higher frequency variability can have massive implications down the road...
 
Webberweather53 said:
Yeah, the GEFS is among, if not the worst ensemble package for MJO forecasts outside the western Pacific and Maritime Continent when it's often pretty obvious that the MJO is going to enter the western hemisphere anyway. The canonical fast and dampening biases I noted a week or so ago in nearly all model suites have also held up here as well. I would anticipate this MJO pulse to enter the Indian Ocean near the very end of February and 1st week of March which does give us at least a brief window of opportunity for something wintry while our climatology is still somewhat respectable.
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Awesome. Thank you....always enjoy your explanations.
 
Webberweather53 said:
It's really hard to believe another El Nino is attempting to legitimately emerge after one of the longest and strongest events of the past few centuries just wrapped up a little less than a year ago. If another El Nino successfully develops, I can imagine global temperatures will spike yet again. It's amazing to see how warm the global SSTAs are at the moment and another El Nino would only add insult to a semi-permanent injury...
View attachment 171

There's no precedent for another El Nino developing immediately after an exceptionally large event (within 2 years) in the observational record that goes back to the mid 19th century. Looking at Quinn's ENSO reconstruction, there may have been another El Nino immediately after the super NINO in 1828. Other than that, I don't see any other legitimate instances of this occurring in at least the last 500 years, which certainly bolsters the argument that a significant proportion of the observed behavior in natural phenomena such as ENSO has a non-negligible and potentially large anthropogenic component via encouraging more rapid recovery of the West Pacific Warm Pool...

Here's the 7 day SST anomaly change, yea thanks largely to the MJO, we've seen a huge increase in the central Pacific SSTAs
View attachment 172
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Here's what global land temperatures looked like in Berkeley Earth in Dec 1828...
Even though there's not a lot of data in this era, the anomaly distributions are consistent w/ what you'd expect to see in a massive El Nino w/ the east-central US torching early on.

Dec 1828
g20170215_2042_18464_1.png


Dec 1877
g20170215_2152_12324_1.png


Dec 1888
g20170215_2154_14199_1.png



Dec 1982
g20170215_2153_12907_1.png


Dec 1997

g20170215_2154_13442_1.png


Dec 2015
g20170215_2154_13945_1.png
 
SnowHusky said:
Checking out the MJO, the GFS OP puts it back in phase 8 late month while the GEFS puts it in a weak phase 7 but it has it pointing towards back at phase 8 late month. With the trends I've been seeing on the MJO, I think late month will be on a weak phase 8 (possibly to a moderate phase 8) to a weak phase 7. After the system of the 24th-25th, that's when we'll see a different track of systems. We'll start to see more systems coming along in the southern stream along the subtropical jet. As I mentioned last week (I believe it was last week) that we could see more overrunning events because of the moist subtropical jet. This could mean, good moist wet snow or even sleet/ZR events as the cold layer gets underneath the subtropical jet. I'm not saying that's what's set in stone, no, I'm saying that's a possibility.
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Not this again....long range MJO, as depicted by the GEFS has been wrong all season. This was explained before.
 
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I posted this at American Weather several weeks ago regarding the warm winter of 1827/1828.

David Ludlum in his book Early American Winters II 1821-1870 talks about the unusually warm winters in the Eastern United States from the mid to late 1820's. He said the climax of the warm period came in the winter of 1827-1828. During that winter, fruit trees in the South started blooming in January and were in full bloom by the first week of February. Peach and apricot trees in Pennsylvania were in full bloom by the third week of February. In addition to the warm temperatures, it was an extremely wet winter(Super El Niño?). By March the circulation changed and polar air masses began to move southward with reports of snow falling as far south as coastal South Carolina during mid-March. During the first week of April a massive cold front(much like April 2007) swept through the South delivering a devastating freeze that killed all tender crops, as well as the pears and peaches. The warm winters of the 1820's ended with a return to snowy winters in the South during the 1830's.

Departures From Normal for Charleston, SC during the winter of 1828.

January +11.7°

February +13.5°

March +6.5°
 
Fear not ... and join the eternal optimism train ride ...
NWS here within 48 hours, and then 24, had severe posted, with a rain deluge guaranteed. Let's see, other than a nice steady wind and a few passing clouds, with only 6 minutes of sprinkles while the sun shone ... They busted on a one day forecast.
Here's some hope sent everyone's way that climo may still give us something to "hurrah" about, notwithstanding what some models today may say about 10 - 14 days out.;)
 
Eric said:
I posted this at American Weather several weeks ago regarding the warm winter of 1827/1828.

David Ludlum in his book Early American Winters II 1821-1870 talks about the unusually warm winters in the Eastern United States from the mid to late 1820's. He said the climax of the warm period came in the winter of 1827-1828. During that winter, fruit trees in the South started blooming in January and were in full bloom by the first week of February. Peach and apricot trees in Pennsylvania were in full bloom by the third week of February. In addition to the warm temperatures, it was an extremely wet winter(Super El Niño?). By March the circulation changed and polar air masses began to move southward with reports of snow falling as far south as coastal South Carolina during mid-March. During the first week of April a massive cold front(much like April 2007) swept through the South delivering a devastating freeze that killed all tender crops, as well as the pears and peaches. The warm winters of the 1820's ended with a return to snowy winters in the South during the 1830's.

Departures From Normal for Charleston, SC during the winter of 1828.

January +11.7°

February +13.5°

March +6.5°
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March is not a winter month. So what was the departure for Dec 1927 ?
 
That severe ended up happening in mainly central-southern South Carolina. I talked about it on that severe thread. There was storms that went through my area that turned severe in South Carolina in the morning. I wonder if there was ever actually a tornado that was spotted from them?
 
Webberweather53 said:
It's really hard to believe another El Nino is attempting to legitimately emerge after one of the longest and strongest events of the past few centuries just wrapped up a little less than a year ago. If another El Nino successfully develops, I can imagine global temperatures will spike yet again. It's amazing to see how warm the global SSTAs are at the moment and another El Nino would only add insult to a semi-permanent injury...
View attachment 171

There's no precedent for another El Nino developing immediately after an exceptionally large event (within 2 years) in the observational record that goes back to the mid 19th century. Looking at Quinn's ENSO reconstruction, there may have been another El Nino immediately after the super NINO in 1828. Other than that, I don't see any other legitimate instances of this occurring in at least the last 500 years, which certainly bolsters the argument that a significant proportion of the observed behavior in natural phenomena such as ENSO has a non-negligible and potentially large anthropogenic component via encouraging more rapid recovery of the West Pacific Warm Pool...

Here's the 7 day SST anomaly change, yea thanks largely to the MJO, we've seen a huge increase in the central Pacific SSTAs
View attachment 172
Click to expand...

Good stuff...
 
Interesting things on the 12z GEFS, the end of the run of the 18z GFS OP looks interesting too.
 
pcbjr said:
Fear not ... and join the eternal optimism train ride ...
NWS here within 48 hours, and then 24, had severe posted, with a rain deluge guaranteed. Let's see, other than a nice steady wind and a few passing clouds, with only 6 minutes of sprinkles while the sun shone ... They busted on a one day forecast.
Here's some hope sent everyone's way that climo may still give us something to "hurrah" about, notwithstanding what some models today may say about 10 - 14 days out.;)
Click to expand...
I've got some optimism! I've gotten 3 inches of rain from the last two events, to go with all the rain I've gotten since it started to rain again, lol. This warming we are in, be it micro or macro, is somewhat anomalous, in that it doesn't get this warm for this long in winter every year, lol, and indeed since my youth I can count on one hand the number of times the pears leaves have been out this early, or like the hard woods out back that have had new leaves for at least three weeks. This means the atmosphere is ripe for anomalous events, since it in it's self it is one big anomalous event. And if this warming were to meet up with some effervescent cold in March we could get an anomalous storm, and the best example of an anomalous mid March storm I can remember was a Blizzard!
And he drops the mic!! By cleverly joining together several completely unrelated things I've created a dream dream scenario, lol. Never give up on blizzards until after mid March, and on snow until April...at least in Ga. I can't speak to anywhere else :) T
 
dsaur said:
I've got some optimism! ... And he drops the mic!! By cleverly joining together several completely unrelated things I've created a dream dream scenario, lol. Never give up on blizzards until after mid March, and on snow until April...at least in Ga. I can't speak to anywhere else :) T
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Tony - glad to see you here!
My mic was dropped and left elsewhere in America! :cool:
Never say never until never is the only thing left to say .... o_O
In other words - I completely agree FWIW
 
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dsaur said:
I've got some optimism! I've gotten 3 inches of rain from the last two events, to go with all the rain I've gotten since it started to rain again, lol. This warming we are in, be it micro or macro, is somewhat anomalous, in that it doesn't get this warm for this long in winter every year, lol, and indeed since my youth I can count on one hand the number of times the pears leaves have been out this early, or like the hard woods out back that have had new leaves for at least three weeks. This means the atmosphere is ripe for anomalous events, since it in it's self it is one big anomalous event. And if this warming were to meet up with some effervescent cold in March we could get an anomalous storm, and the best example of an anomalous mid March storm I can remember was a Blizzard!
And he drops the mic!! By cleverly joining together several completely unrelated things I've created a dream dream scenario, lol. Never give up on blizzards until after mid March, and on snow until April...at least in Ga. I can't speak to anywhere else :) T
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That's what created the blizzard of 1993, severe cold had a convergence with the subtropical jet and it help fire up those thunder storms that were occurring in TX and they eventually turned into a one big cyclone. When you have a storm originating in eastern TX and dropping down in the GOM, with cold air coming down, look out.

Edit: this is what is showing on the GEFS, cold air coming down while storms are coming up from the southern stream.
 
SnowHusky said:
That's what created the blizzard of 1993, severe cold had a convergence with the subtropical jet and it help fire up those thunder storms that were occurring in TX and they eventually turned into a one big cyclone. When you have a storm originating in eastern TX and dropping down in the GOM, with cold air coming down, look out.

Edit: this is what is showing on the GEFS, cold air coming down while storms are coming up from the southern stream.
Click to expand...

The GEFS is garbage and has been all winter long imo...Wish it wasn't but it is...


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Eric said:
I posted this at American Weather several weeks ago regarding the warm winter of 1827/1828.

David Ludlum in his book Early American Winters II 1821-1870 talks about the unusually warm winters in the Eastern United States from the mid to late 1820's. He said the climax of the warm period came in the winter of 1827-1828. During that winter, fruit trees in the South started blooming in January and were in full bloom by the first week of February. Peach and apricot trees in Pennsylvania were in full bloom by the third week of February. In addition to the warm temperatures, it was an extremely wet winter(Super El Niño?). By March the circulation changed and polar air masses began to move southward with reports of snow falling as far south as coastal South Carolina during mid-March. During the first week of April a massive cold front(much like April 2007) swept through the South delivering a devastating freeze that killed all tender crops, as well as the pears and peaches. The warm winters of the 1820's ended with a return to snowy winters in the South during the 1830's.

Departures From Normal for Charleston, SC during the winter of 1828.

January +11.7°

February +13.5°

March +6.5°
Click to expand...

Interesting!... Although it's possible a weak NINO event was ongoing at that time, most agree that 1828-29 not 1827-28 was the year w/ the Super NINO in the early 19th century.
 
I think the models will start to get a better handle on things shortly before the 24th-25th system or after the event cause after that is when the jet starts relaxing some and it won't be crashing into the west like it has been. With the PAC raging, the models are wanting to put storm system all over the place. From the 18z GFS, it is showing the jet going into a split flow off shore during the 23rd slowing the jet down.

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SnowHusky said:
I think the models will start to get a better handle on things shortly before the 24th-25th system or after the event cause after that is when the jet starts relaxing some and it won't be crashing into the west like it has been. With the PAC raging, the models are wanting to put storm system all over the place. From the 18z GFS, it is showing the jet going into a split flow off shore during the 23rd slowing the jet down.

Sent from my SM-J700T1 using Tapatalk
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The 18Z GFS throws summer into this neck of the woods - not buying it or any solution now - just watching - beats the heck out of TV these days ....
 
pcbjr said:
The 18Z GFS throws summer into this neck of the woods - not buying it or any solution now - just watching - beats the heck out of TV these days ....
Click to expand...

Hell of a season of House of Cards though!


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This winter season as been a hells kitchen lol-maybe, just maybe, we can make up for it late this month or in March.

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SnowHusky said:
That's what created the blizzard of 1993, severe cold had a convergence with the subtropical jet and it help fire up those thunder storms that were occurring in TX and they eventually turned into a one big cyclone. When you have a storm originating in eastern TX and dropping down in the GOM, with cold air coming down, look out.

Edit: this is what is showing on the GEFS, cold air coming down while storms are coming up from the southern stream.
Click to expand...

The superstorm was in effect a triple jet phased Nor'easter that just happened over the GOM. It was much more than just cold air and thunderstorms.
 
The western ridge on the EPS around days 13-15 just keeps getting more and more impressive....The OP gfs is also pretty hell bent on an active pattern around the start of March.
 
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