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Tropical Hurricane Dorian

Euro now has a tropical storm approaching Florida strongest run so far. Normally i wouldnt say this was a big deal but considering it was dead on prior runsecmwf_z500_mslp_watl_7.png

ecmwf_z500_mslp_watl_8 (1).png

And now were recurving up the coast

ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_10.png
 
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GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED AND LOOKS TO BE GETTING SOME CONVECTION GOING ON THE SOUTHSIDE WHERE DRY AIR WAS INTERFERING WITH IT EARLIER
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NHC nudge the cone north.....one more move north and possibly miss the island.

"The track models have
shifted slightly to the right or north this cycle, and the NHC
track forecast has been nudged in that direction."

085210_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png
 
No mention of Ukmet in the update, but does say

"It should be noted
that the GFS and ECMWF have been very consistent in showing Dorian
dissipating over the Caribbean Sea. Due to the wide range of the
model solutions, the NHC intensity forecast remains of low
confidence. It should be noted that compact tropical cyclones like
Dorian are often challenging to predict."
 
I'm in deltadog camp still for right now. Think the shredder is gonna save some folks a lot of $.
Saw this posted and as of right now both ens groups from last night track this storm right over those big mtns.

1566815829571.png
 
Henry2326 said:
No mention of Ukmet in the update, but does say

"It should be noted
that the GFS and ECMWF have been very consistent in showing Dorian
dissipating over the Caribbean Sea. Due to the wide range of the
model solutions, the NHC intensity forecast remains of low
confidence. It should be noted that compact tropical cyclones like
Dorian are often challenging to predict."
Click to expand...
The last line sums up Dorian perfectly. We’ve seen quite a few hurricane masterfully dance their way around Hispaniola in recent years. It’s still too early for me to say for sure , but I’m leaning towards a miss to the north. Even if it doesn’t perhaps it’s compact size will work to it’s advantage.
 
Weatherlover92 said:
The last line sums up Dorian perfectly. We’ve seen quite a few hurricane masterfully dance their way around Hispaniola in recent years. It’s still too early for me to say for sure , but I’m leaning towards a miss to the north. Even if it doesn’t perhaps it’s compact size will work to it’s advantage.
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Yeah a larger storm would get more disrupted by the mountains just by passing just to the north just like Irma which never fully recovered the inner core.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
gfs-legacy_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_23.png
 
Personal opinion.....I think legacy is moving it too fast. a day or 2 ahead of the other models. Given more time in favorable conditions, it should recover. Also, appears icon is the only one giving significant break in the high, which would push it further up the east coast.
 
Henry2326 said:
Personal opinion.....I think legacy is moving it too fast. a day or 2 ahead of the other models. Given more time in favorable conditions, it should recover. Also, appears icon is the only one giving significant break in the high, which would push it further up the east coast.
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Yeah being an eastern NC resident my concerns are down significantly with Dorian. Going to be hard to get it to turn up the coast unless something changes in the models.
 
Tropical Storm Dorian Advisory 8A:

...COMPACT DORIAN GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED...
...EXPECTED TO BRING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS LATER TODAY...

LOCATION: 12.0N 57.0W
ABOUT 205 MI ESE OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 315 MI ESE OF ST. LUCIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS: 60 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT: W AT 14 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1002 MB
 
Henry2326 said:
Personal opinion.....I think legacy is moving it too fast. a day or 2 ahead of the other models. Given more time in favorable conditions, it should recover. Also, appears icon is the only one giving significant break in the high, which would push it further up the east coast.
Click to expand...

It all depends on the strength it hits Hispaniola at. If it hits it as a compact strong hurricane with a tight core the chances at recovery are just about none. If it hits it as a weaker TS, it could recover some.
 
Arcc said:
It all depends on the strength it hits Hispaniola at. If it hits it as a compact strong hurricane with a tight core the chances at recovery are just about none. If it hits it as a weaker TS, it could recover some.
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Size is another thing. If it grows somewhat larger than what it is now then it would have a harder time reorganizing from a direct hit. If it stays relatively small but large enough to not be completely lost to the mountains then it definitely would have a chance.
 
Hispaniola has eaten more than it's share of TC's over the years, we've all seen numerous storms forecast to hit it and then regain strength but more times than not TC's never fully recover from those 10k' peaks. With that said, if I'm not mistaken the eastern portions of the island are not as mountainous and forecast trends want to take it in that direction.... still very close proximity to the main mountain chain which still would cause serious disruption. But until it hits the shredder head on I've got an uneasy feeling in my gut....
 
Looks like the ukmet takes it across Hispaniola and then has a weak system nearing the tip of Fl at the end of it's run, of course this could be problematic later on in the GOM. I hate it for Haiti, our benefit comes at a high sacrifice from them

1566822892037.png
 
metwannabe said:
Hispaniola has eaten more than it's share of TC's over the years, we've all seen numerous storms forecast to hit it and then regain strength but more times than not TC's never fully recover from those 10k' peaks. With that said, if I'm not mistaken the eastern portions of the island are not as mountainous and forecast trends want to take it in that direction.... still very close proximity to the main mountain chain which still would cause serious disruption. But until it hits the shredder head on I've got an uneasy feeling in my gut....
Click to expand...
Yeah it's not going to do as much on the current path. Tick the path 20 or 40 miles north and it'll barely weaken.
Hispaniola.jpg
 
metwannabe said:
Looks like the ukmet takes it across Hispaniola and then has a weak system nearing the tip of Fl at the end of it's run, of course this could be problematic later on in the GOM. I hate it for Haiti, our benefit comes at a high sacrifice from them

View attachment 22003
Click to expand...

Yeah Hispaniola and Cuba are a huge help.


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There's a lot for Dorian to overcome if it's ever going to be a threat though, both the GFS and Euro show an ULL the Bahamas in 48hrs or so that slides SW which probably helps turn Dorian more northerly but also more shear and why neither model really does anything with her.

And some pretty good shear in it's path to Hispaniola

1566824219634.png
 
Did not see the EPS posted so here you go and I'm done got to get to work but obviously all kinds of options on the table still. Also in the very short term it's looking healthy, even some lightning strikes in and around the core. Some intensification currently underway it would seem

1566825624023.png
 
metwannabe said:
Did not see the EPS posted so here you go and I'm done got to get to work but obviously all kinds of options on the table still. Also in the very short term it's looking healthy, even some lightning strikes in and around the core. Some intensification currently underway it would seem

View attachment 22009
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Hate to say and know its very different setup but am I the only one getting Hugo Vibes? I hope not but anything is possible at this range.
 
Ethan80963! said:
Don't have a picture but the NAM's taking a run towards the southeast
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The NAM is horrible with TC's, especially in that region... also it only goes out 84hrs so while it shows it north of the Island there is no way of knowing if it's heading OTS, SE or hooking left towards the GOM.... not trying to be critical but I'd toss the NAM for TC unless it's maybe within 48hrs of the mainland (if it ever got that close)
 
ForsythSnow said:
Is it just me or does it seem like Dorian is making a run for a hurricane? Seems the convection is finally staying together and there seems to be a fast spin at the center that is maintaining itself. Those new towers near the center should be telling.
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Waiting on the 11am anxiously
 
000
WTNT25 KNHC 261445
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM DORIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019
1500 UTC MON AUG 26 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED BY THE GOVERNMENT OF ST. LUCIA
FOR ST. LUCIA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS UPGRADED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH TO A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR MARTINIQUE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ST. LUCIA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARBADOS
* MARTINIQUE
* ST. LUCIA
* ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DOMINICA
* GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES
* SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE...WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND HISPANIOLA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DORIAN AS WATCHES FOR THESE AREAS
COULD BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 57.7W AT 26/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 57.7W AT 26/1500Z
AT 26/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 57.1W

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 12.9N 59.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 13.9N 61.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 15.1N 63.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 16.4N 65.6W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 19.2N 69.3W...NE COAST OF HISPANIOLA
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 22.0N 72.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 31/1200Z 24.8N 76.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.3N 57.7W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 26/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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No actual strengthening wind-wise for this advisory. From the look of it I've gotta think it'll be soon
 
A lot of systems weaken from just being in the vicinity of those mountains. Doesn’t have to hit them to disrupt the storms flow on the west side and eventually south side outflows.
 
ForsythSnow said:
This is not good. A mere extra shift to the north and it'll maintain hurricane strength the entire way I think. Hopefully we can get some recon data later.
144801_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png
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Normally I would say let it keep shifting north and maybe it will turn on ots but with the way models are building the high back in off the EC, yeah that's concerning to say the least.
 
At this point, this storm has the Florida upto SAV, GA look to it. I was worried this trend would happen yesterday afternoon. :(
 
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