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Tropical Hurricane Dorian

The NHC mentioned their forcecast is further south than other models and may have to be adjusted if the trend continues. If Dorian can track a little more North and clip the Islands it will mainly stay intact depending on the intensity.
 
Interesting how weak the low is via the 11am update. The central pressure is at about 1008 mb. For a Tropical storm you would expect the low to be in the Mid 90’s.


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Ollie Williams said:
Interesting how weak the low is via the 11am update. The central pressure is at about 1008 mb. For a Tropical storm you would expect the low to be in the Mid 90’s.


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Click to expand...

1008 is pretty weak for a TS but it happens sometimes, especially with a tightly wound little storm like this one and relatively high surrounding high pressure. Also, mid 990s is often higher end TS. Usually, low 1000s is strong enough for a TS.

Also, the 1008 may just be a rough estimate since no recon although nearby ships and buoys can be utilized.
 
Tropical Storm Dorian Advisory 5A:

...DORIAN GETTING A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED...

LOCATION: 11.3N 53.4W
ABOUT 430 MI ESE OF BARBADOS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS: 40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT: W AT 14 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1008 MB
 
Convection appears very healthy at the moment and is becoming more organized. It may be the northerly convection, but it appears to be on a more NW track as of now.
 
Euro trying to show redevelopment in the Gulf in fact this is the strongest frame on the entire run at 216 lol

Actually looking at it now I think this is something else(the remnants of 90L?)

ecmwf_uv850_vort_watl_9.pngecmwf_z500_mslp_watl_10.png
 
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Brent said:
EPS members have split a bit still weak into the Carolinas while the stronger members go into FloridaView attachment 21970
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Note that there are ~51 Euro ens members. So, only ~8 of the 51 or ~16% actually hit the CONUS with a TD+, ~8% with a TS+, and ~6% with a H. The key is what is going to survive once it comes out of the Caribbean. IF it survives, it will probably have a path to or at least near to the CONUS. But, if so, hopefully it would be weak and not regenerate too much.
 
Still forecasting a hurricane before Hispanola but really weak on the other side

However, the large range of possibilities also includes both Dorian
going north of Hispaniola and remaining a hurricane and the small
cyclone dissipating completely over the island.
174113.png
...DORIAN STRENGTHENING...
...NEW TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND WATCHES ISSUED...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.5N 54.2W
ABOUT 375 MI...605 KM ESE OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 485 MI...780 KM ESE OF ST. LUCIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
 
Brent said:
Still forecasting a hurricane before Hispanola but really weak on the other side

However, the large range of possibilities also includes both Dorian
going north of Hispaniola and remaining a hurricane and the small
cyclone dissipating completely over the island.
View attachment 21972
...DORIAN STRENGTHENING...
...NEW TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND WATCHES ISSUED...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.5N 54.2W
ABOUT 375 MI...605 KM ESE OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 485 MI...780 KM ESE OF ST. LUCIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
Click to expand...
Also note it jumped up to 50 mph. Definitely strengthening now. The fact they have it weakening to 45 mph and then going back to 50 is sort of fishy to me almost like they copy and pasted the cone.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Another burst of convection developing with Dorian it appears, wonder how it’s gonna do tonight with a more favorable cycle
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The convection consistency is going to allow it to develop more and strengthen. If it can bring the pressure down more with these bursts, it may be able to get some sustainable convection around its center. By then it'll be a strong TS.
 
If Dorian strengthens more than forecast could it maintain more than TD strength and restrenghen after passing through the islands? Question 2. Who thinks Dorian could pass south of the islands and pull a CMC?
 
They mention that pesky ukmet still being north and stronger. Dont sleep.on the ukmet it has a decent history. Sure it misses a bunch of storms too but I've learned to not ignore it. Especially with Dorian strengthening steadily now as compared to the weaker gfs and euro.
 
accu35 said:
If Dorian strengthens more than forecast could it maintain more than TD strength and restrenghen after passing through the islands? Question 2. Who thinks Dorian could pass south of the islands and pull a CMC?
Click to expand...
Lots of sheer in front ... Point 1; steering currents are south, Point 2. Odds are, it gets weak or shredded, and whether it then goes with currents and regenerates in the BOC or GOM is way too far out there, or whether the front coming down in a few days sucks some remnant torn rain north and causes some regeneration or death of the system is another too far out there ... just MHO mind you ...
 
GFS legacy cleared the islands and looks to be taking a run towards Florida
 
pcbjr said:
What run? What hour? Can you post a link or map?
Click to expand...

Weak but still something 18z hr 144
ded925808ef13846226c1fd65fe3cc2d.jpg



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Modeling starting to hint this thing might miss the majority of mountains to weaken it.. Starting to see some splitting/usa tracks on some ensemble modeling.
 
Tropical Storm Dorian Advisory 6A:

...DORIAN HEADED FOR THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...

LOCATION: 11.6N 54.8W
ABOUT 335 MI ESE OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 445 MI ESE OF ST. LUCIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS: 50 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT: W AT 14 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1003 MB
 
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