• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Tropical Hurricane Dorian

accu35 said:
Is this where you think it's going but not a official forecast track? Because if so, than that's right over my house lol
Click to expand...
YES THIS IS WHAT I DREW UP IN PAINT SO I CAN COMPARE "MY TRACK" WITH WHAT THE FINAL TRACK IS WHEN EVER THIS IS FIZZLED OUT., SORRY ABOUT BOMBING YOUR HOUSE :)
 
HWRF is weaker overall but at the end of the run appears to miss most of the Shredder to the north and is strengthening

hwrf_satIR_05L_22.png
 
Here is a GEFS modke track , right to about Mobile,AL
842399c33a664bb4fcab435b18a39466.jpg


Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk
 
NHC Tropical Storm Dorian Advisory 4:

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR BARBADOS...

LOCATION: 11.0N 51.6W
ABOUT 555 MI ESE OF BARBADOS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS: 40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT: W AT 13 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1008 MB

Watches/Warning Changes:

The government of Barbados has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for Barbados.

NHC forecast Track/Intensity:

912CD2D4-4EBB-4A0D-AD5A-695DCBC87E1B.png
12H: 45 MPH
24H: 50 MPH
36H: 60 MPH
48H: 65 MPH
72H: 75 MPH
96H: 70 MPH
120H: 40 MPH...INLAND

Key Messages:
0978B7DB-E6EE-4938-90E0-0529CA60D0B9.png
 
Last edited:
06z ICON stays north. 00z Navgem stays north.
06z GFS goes to the shredder.....
06z Legacy stays north to make it in the gulf.
 
My key take-away from the 5 am NHC discussion:

Quote. --
"It should be stressed that Dorian is likely to be a difficult cyclone
to forecast due to the marginal environment it is embedded within
and its small size."
 
I've not quite bought into "no retraction of the high". If there is a weakness in the high, the storm is going north. 3 or 4 more days before we can sea...
 
Screenshot_20190825-065510.jpg
06z Legacy a little slower intensifying in the gulf but gets to the same place as 00z, but just further west.
 
Henry2326 said:
I've not quite bought into "no retraction of the high". If there is a weakness in the high, the storm is going north. 3 or 4 more days before we can sea...
Click to expand...

If you remember during the winter while CAD verified stronger, the high usually weakened closer to verification. Definitely something to watch. I’m not going all in until we get more ensemble shifts north.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
The chips are stacking up against Dorian being any kind of major threat unless it can clear the islands to the north if it goes into the shredder and then over Hispaniola then it's pretty much over for it I think especially being such a small circulation once it gets torn apart it's going to be tough to get it back
 
For those of us near the coast not wanting to deal with the risk of a hurricane hit, overall model guidance trends are quite encouraging. However, it is too soon to celebrate as the model consensus could still be wrong like it was for genesis outside of the GFS and it doesn’t seem to be falling apart at least yet. The tiny size makes it harder to predict than normal for the models.
 
Last edited:
GaWx said:
For those of us near the coast not wanting to deal with the risk of a hurricane hit, overall model guidance trends are quite encouraging. However, it is too soon to celebrate as the model consensus could still be wrong like it was for genesis outside of the GFS and it doesn’t seem to be falling apart at least yet. The tiny size makes it harder to predict than normal for the models.
Click to expand...
Yeah one large flare up that manages to sustain itself and it could go from a TS to a strong hurricane in less than a day. However on the same token, if it hits shear it's pretty much done.
 
And right now it looks go be going through a blow up phase but it's not directly over the COC from what I can tell. It needs to crank up more convection if it wants to survive.
 
ForsythSnow said:
And right now it looks go be going through a blow up phase but it's not directly over the COC from what I can tell. It needs to crank up more convection if it wants to survive.
Click to expand...

I was just looking and it looks like maybe it's slightly tilted? Seems to be a mid level swirl right in the blow up but the LLC just a tad and I mean a tad east?
 
My takeaway from 11:00 discussion:

Quote:
"However, the large range of possibilities
includes both Dorian going north of Hispaniola and remaining a
hurricane and the small cyclone dissipating completely over
Hispaniola."
 
Its gonna be very hard for Dorian to maintain its strength with the track its going. Going into moderate shear and through the islands. I just dont see it regaining anything after, only chance its going to have is north of the islands into the conductive area of development I can be wrong tho. If it were a bigger size storm things would be different
 
Got to take note of the mention of the ukmet in then11am disco. It nailed irma's run in with Cuba and led the way with florence's southwest motion early last year.
 
By watching the 12z models, I find it hard to believe that Dorian will make it Hurricane status. If trend continues, I think the forecast intensity will drop, but I could be wrong.
 
Forget the future, looks like it’s starting to get some cloud tops trying to spike at -90C right now, Convective bursts look stronger, it’s trying, if it manages to get some consistent storms around the LLC, than this thing may still strengthen quick before it heads into a unfavorable environment, even if it doesn’t have the best chance to strengthen at short term
 
Last edited:
Myfrotho704_ said:
Forget the future, looks like it’s starting to get some cloud tops spiking at -90C right now, Convective bursts look stronger, it’s trying, if it manages to get some consistent storms around the LLC, than this thing may still strengthen quick before it heads into a unfavorable environment, even if it doesn’t have the best chance to strengthen at short term
Click to expand...
TWC peeps did mention it could strengthen back if it survives the shear. I'm with ya, forget the future if it could get its act together quicker it could be a different story. I've seen crapy model runs turn into something down the road
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top