• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Severe Severe Weather Threat for 6/20/19

B

Brick Tamland

Guest
Almost all of NC and SC are under an enhanced risk today for severe storms. Parts of GA and VA, too. Looks like the biggest threat we have had in a while.

day1otlk_1300.gif


day1probotlk_1300_wind.gif
 
3km NAM shows a nasty MCS/bowing segment forming this afternoon and traversing a good chunk of NC.

1561036766555.png

1561036775699.png

Meanwhile the HRRR is much different with more of a scattered showers/storms look for NC and more bowing segments in SC.

1561036801520.png
 
The battle of the short range models today. NAM really looks bad for NC.
 
Once storms actually form I believe we will get a good picture of what we’re looking at. These types of set ups it’s just all about the nowcasting where these bowing segments line up. Not good that we’re getting all this good sun and humidity before hand..
 
Brick Tamland said:
The battle of the short range models today. NAM really looks bad for NC.
Click to expand...

Yeah NAM would be really bad especially for wind damage if something like that verified. The HRRR wouldn't be quite as bad but would still be rough for the stronger cells. This is a scenario where you have to look more at the ingredients on the table and see the potential for things to get pretty rough which is what the SPC is doing. There should be plenty of instability to work with too.
 
After analyzing morning model data.. I believe the worst of the Severe Storms will be over South Carolina, especially central and eastern parts‼️ Sun is out in full force.
 
Meteorologist1999 said:
After analyzing morning model data.. I believe the worst of the Severe Storms will be over South Carolina, especially central and eastern parts‼️ Sun is out in full force.
Click to expand...

Sunny over most of Central NC as well right now. Cat is loving it.


Instability looks to be growing each model run across Central NC no?
 
The damaging wind threat definitely seems like it'll be highest mainly east of I-85 & GSP-CLT in the Carolinas today, in addition to the amount of time the cold pools from neighboring storms will have to mature & merge, there's also considerably more CAPE in the coastal plain and eastern piedmont, right over the areas w/ 45% risk of wind damage.

I guess we'll see what happens but I definitely think I'm on the outside looking in here in Charlotte.
sbcp.gif
 
Stump said:
Sunny over most of Central NC as well right now. Cat is loving it.


Instability looks to be growing each model run across Central NC no?
Click to expand...

Full sun, muggy, and it's already windy this morning. Feels like a stormy day.
 
1561047308067.png
Mesoscale Discussion 1159
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1102 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2019

Areas affected...southeast Alabama...central and southern Georgia
and South Carolina

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 201602Z - 201800Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to develop by 17-18Z over a
large part of the Southeast U.S. and increase in coverage and
intensity during the afternoon, posing a risk for damaging wind and
hail. A WW will probably be needed for a portion of this region by
17Z.

DISCUSSION...A moist warm sector resides over a large part of the
southeast U.S. with dewpoints around 70F and temperatures climbing
through the mid 80s F as of 16Z. Latest objective analysis indicate
MLCAPE around 1500-2000 J/kg and further destabilization will occur
as the surface layer continues to warm. Water vapor imagery shows a
progressive shortwave trough moving through the TN Valley, with an
MCV also indicated over southeast TN/northern GA. A low-level
confluence zone is forecast to evolve well inland from the coast
from southern AL through southern GA. The combination of forcing for
ascent associated with the MCV and progressive shortwave trough,
surface layer destabilization and subtle boundaries, should promote
warm sector initiation by early afternoon. While deep-layer wind
profiles are unidirectional west southwesterly with small 0-1 km
hodographs, a belt of 50 kt mid-level winds within the base of the
trough is resulting in 30-35 kt effective bulk shear. This
environment should support both multicell and some supercell
structures with discrete modes eventually evolving into lines and
clusters capable of damaging wind and hail.
 
1561048088915.png
Mesoscale Discussion 1160
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1123 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2019

Areas affected...North Carolina...Virginia...Maryland and Delaware

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 201623Z - 201830Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to develop during the early
afternoon posing a risk for damaging wind and hail. A severe
thunderstorm watch will probably be needed by 18-19Z.

DISCUSSION...The warm sector continues to destabilize over a large
part of the Mid Atlantic region from North Carolina through VA and
MD. Surface dewpoints around 70F and temperatures warming through
the mid to upper 80s have boosted MLCAPE to 1500-2000 J/kg. WV
imagery shows the primary shortwave trough over the TN Valley, but
with an MCV moving through the southern Appalachians. These features
are progressive, and the accompanying forcing for ascent along with
boundary layer destabilization should result in an increase in
thunderstorm coverage and intensity this afternoon. Wind profiles
are unidirectional west southwesterly with 30-40 kt deep-layer flow,
but modest 0-6 km shear generally less than 35 kt. This environment
will support mostly multicell modes, but mid-level updraft rotation
will also be possible in some storms. Activity may evolve into
clusters and line segments with time posing a risk for damaging wind
and hail through the afternoon into early evening.
 
Going to be quite an active afternoon I'm afraid. Models usually struggle with initiation of storms on days like this but usually those remnant MCV's running into an unstable airmass like this really get cranking by 3-5pm just based on past experience. SC looks primed to see some explosive upscale growth this afternoon too but there are massive differences between the HRRR and 3km NAM. The HRRR focuses the storms forming in Eastern NC/SC with a scattered nature and little organization while the 3km NAM is showing several multi-cellular clusters forming. I tend to lean towards the 3km NAM idea given the thermodynamic environment and overall setup but we will see.
 
snowlover91 said:
Going to be quite an active afternoon I'm afraid. Models usually struggle with initiation of storms on days like this but usually those remnant MCV's running into an unstable airmass like this really get cranking by 3-5pm just based on past experience. SC looks primed to see some explosive upscale growth this afternoon too but there are massive differences between the HRRR and 3km NAM. The HRRR focuses the storms forming in Eastern NC/SC with a scattered nature and little organization while the 3km NAM is showing several multi-cellular clusters forming. I tend to lean towards the 3km NAM idea given the thermodynamic environment and overall setup but we will see.
Click to expand...

What's the latest NAM look like?
 
Might be time for the SPC to pull the trigger on that Watch.... things are starting to pop
 
Covers all of SC and some of NC, too. Weird border for NC. Wonder if we'll get another watch here.
 
Absolutely absurd amounts of mixed-layer CAPE in the lowlands of SC atm, 3000 j/kg is extremely impressive and will definitely be able to maintain, if not, significantly intensify any storms that move into eastern SC later this evening.

mlcp.gif



This is also a pretty classic lee trough signature in the wake of the Apps, makes sense why storms fired where they did just west of the Triad & down towards Hickory where vorticity stretching provided an extra source for ascent.

pmsl.gif
 
So far the 3km NAM seems to be handling the storm evolution better than the HRRR runs this morning were. I expect the storms in Western NC to quickly grow into an organized complex with some bowing segments and widespread wind damage likely.
 
snowlover91 said:
So far the 3km NAM seems to be handling the storm evolution better than the HRRR runs this morning were. I expect the storms in Western NC to quickly grow into an organized complex with some bowing segments and widespread wind damage likely.
Click to expand...

Yeah the NAM tends to perform much better in cases where the storm mode is linear, the HRRR has been inconsistent and spurious by comparison for today.
 
Once this thing kicks out east it should haul ass as well....been a while since we have had a red meat squall line firing in such a hot unstable air mass, then racing east during mid afternoon......should be quite a few blue dots on the SPC storm report page when its all said and done.
 
snowlover91 said:
So far the 3km NAM seems to be handling the storm evolution better than the HRRR runs this morning were. I expect the storms in Western NC to quickly grow into an organized complex with some bowing segments and widespread wind damage likely.
Click to expand...
Yeah hrrr basically whiffed on the convection in the NW piedmont
 
Storm in Harnett County (SD's area) just got a nice red cell blow up right over Chalybeate Springs.
 
metwannabe said:
Yeah hrrr basically whiffed on the convection in the NW piedmont
Click to expand...

Yeah it did poorly with that. Once this line hits the RDU area I expect it will really blow up and start to bow out some. Going to be a rough one Raleigh and points east I'm afraid.
 
Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
236 PM EDT Thu Jun 20 2019

NCC033-VAC083-143-201900-
/O.CON.KRNK.TO.W.0042.000000T0000Z-190620T1900Z/
Caswell NC-Pittsylvania VA-Halifax VA-
236 PM EDT Thu Jun 20 2019

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 PM EDT FOR
NORTHEASTERN CASWELL...SOUTH CENTRAL PITTSYLVANIA AND SOUTHWESTERN
HALIFAX COUNTIES...

At 234 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located over Milton, moving east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage
to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is
likely.

Locations impacted include...
Providence...
Turbeville...
Milton...
Blanch...
and Hamer.
 
Low level cape increasing for the eastern half of NC and SC.

1561056135703.png
 
Southern part of that line in NC is unimpressive. Looks like plenty of CAPE to work with, but it doesn't yet look to be expanding southward very much.
 
Probably the activity that will affect Charlotte, there is a leftover boundary to our north aswell, lets see what this cell can do and if it can release a outflow for other storms to develop on 0C2E1A4D-778E-44A6-AAC4-1FF03836F8E7.jpeg
 
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
309 PM EDT THU JUN 20 2019

NCC001-063-077-081-135-145-201930-
/O.CON.KRAH.SV.W.0094.000000T0000Z-190620T1930Z/
ALAMANCE NC-PERSON NC-ORANGE NC-GRANVILLE NC-GUILFORD NC-DURHAM NC-
309 PM EDT THU JUN 20 2019

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 330 PM EDT
FOR ALAMANCE...EASTERN PERSON...ORANGE...GRANVILLE...SOUTHEASTERN
GUILFORD AND DURHAM COUNTIES...

AT 309 PM EDT, SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM NEAR VIRGILINA TO 11 MILES NORTHEAST OF ROUGEMONT TO
GRAHAM, MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

HAZARD...70 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORT NUMEROUS TREES AND POWERLINES
DOWN ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA, ESPECIALLY
PORTIONS OF PERSON COUNTY.

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT CONSIDERABLE
TREE DAMAGE. WIND DAMAGE IS ALSO LIKELY TO MOBILE HOMES,
ROOFS, AND OUTBUILDINGS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
DURHAM, CHAPEL HILL, BURLINGTON, GRAHAM, OXFORD, HILLSBOROUGH,
CREEDMOOR, CARRBORO, MEBANE AND BUTNER.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

STRAIGHT LINE WINDS CAN BLOW DOWN TREES, POWER LINES, AND DAMAGE
MOBILE HOMES AND OTHER BUILDINGS. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE
UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AS FLYING DEBRIS
GENERATED BY DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE DEADLY.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS, AND MAY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.
 
Massive instability and good shear and the lower half of that line can't even form up. Lol
 
Rain Cold said:
Southern part of that line in NC is unimpressive. Looks like plenty of CAPE to work with, but it doesn't yet look to be expanding southward very much.
Click to expand...
Looks like we get left out again. Seems to be the story of this summer

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top