Webberweather53
Meteorologist
I’ll take it
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Severe POSS SEVERE WEATHER STARTING 05-17-2019 and BEYOND
- Thread starter PEA_RIDGE
- Start date
I’ll take it
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Not impressed with this severe threat.
Got a storm inbound, finally:
Downeastnc
Member
maybe a CC drop with that couplet on the tor warned cell in my neck of the woods.....just west of Grifton for a few frames....
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Brick Tamland
Guest
And once again the storms are less severe when we're under a watch versus when we aren't.
snowlover91
Member
Had quarter size hail in Greenville near where I work earlier today, then some pea to marble size hail briefly tonight at my house. Definitely an active day and 3km NAM indicating some more storms tomorrow, mainly in Eastern NC.
Not really, storms missed you today, other areas reported golf ball size hail and several mid level rotating mesocyclones, and damaging wind gusts
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Still less severe compared to other storms in Wake the past few years that happened when we're not under a watch. The tornadoes that happened earlier this month is a prime example.
NOT EVERYONE IN THE WATCH WILL SEE SEVERE WEATHER!!!!!! IT MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE IN THE WATCH AREA IF A STORM GETS GOING
Shaggy
Member
snowlover91
Member
This was posted in the Facebook page I co-manage with my friend, from the Snow Hill area. 
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Brick Tamland
Guest
I know that. My point has always been the storms around here the past few years end up being more severe when not under a watch versus when we are under a watch. I am talking specifically for Wake. The tornadoes we had earlier this month happened when we were not under a watch. It's been like that here the past few years.
THEY COULD HAVE BEEN A "SHORT" STORM SAY SOMEWHERE AROUND 7-8,000 FT INSTEAD OF THE MORE USUAL ONES THAT ARE 30,000 FEET AND NOT DETECTED BY RADAR SO THERE FOR NO WATCH NOR WARNING
Shaggy
Member
Moderate risk with 12 confirmed tornados and an enhanced day today with 27 stw and 2 tornado warnings just in MHX zone. Hail reports of 2 inches in WAKE county and numerous big hailer. Impressive day.
You can't narrow this kind of analysis down to one county and arrive at a meaningful conclusion. A watch covers a large area. At the very least, if you're going to develop a generalization, you need to generalize over the entire CWA.
Anecdotally, when looking at it in this context, that thesis may hold water. But it's just a guess in the end.
Cad Wedge NC
Member
Sounds like you are complaining. The next time you are under a TOR/STS watch, might just make up for the times you missed out. In the end, the likelihood is greater over a larger area when you are under a watch. You have been lucky so far. Be thankful.
Severe ThunderStorm Warning for Fairbanks, Alaska.
The Euro is very interesting for this next weekend. Its not too common to deal with the chance of supercells and tornadoes in the south in June outside of tropical systems.
I was talking about that earlier, definitely a run that made you think a bit, and now plus you got typical summertime instability unless there’s a lot of Convective debris
ACCORDING TO NWS BMX THERE IS A VERY VERY VERY LOW CHANCE FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER. I WAS TOLD IT WILL BE A RAIN MAKER