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Pattern April Chasing ???⛈⛈⛈

Aside from a brief peak of the sun during the late afternoon hours, we were socked in the low clouds yesterday.

We did eventually crawl to a high of 74*F (slightly below what was expected).
 
After plenty of morning sun, a broken mid-level cloud deck developed by midday.

That being said, we've hit 81*F so far.
 
FV3 is not far off for some heavy wet snow in the extended for the mountains. Low 20s in the mornings. Hope it’s wrong on both ideas.
 
From Radiant this morning about the anomalously strong Plains storm that is similar to the one from a few weeks ago and its projected major impacts:

“Powerful April Storm Impacts Mid-Continent
Just a few weeks removed from a record-breaking March cyclone that brought damaging winds and heavy rain/snow to the mid-continent, another anomalously strong storm will impact many of the same regions in the next few days. Low pressure will deepen in the lee of the Rockies tonight and continue to strengthen as it tracks into the Plains tomorrow before slowly lifting northeastward through the western Midwest at the end of the week. With a central pressure down to ~980 mb at its peak, the storm may challenge April record low sea level pressure for parts of the central Plains. This storm will bring a variety of impacts to a large portion of the US, including widespread strong winds particularly in the High Plains, flooding rains in areas of the Mid-South and Midwest, and heavy snowfall from the central Rockies to the northern/central Plains and upper Midwest. In fact, Minneapolis could challenge its all-time April snowfall record of 15.8” set just last year, and places in South Dakota could even reach 2’+! The snow cover left in its wake may lend to some colder risks to forecasts in the north-central US late this week into early next week, although beyond that point the risk may be that models (particularly the Euro) could hold on to that bias for too long. Winds will gust as high as 50-70 mph across the Texas Panhandle/West Texas tomorrow....”
 
Excuse me GFS, you're drunk. Go home.
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Getting hit with a pretty good t'storm today (non-severe), after making it to a high of 76*F.
 
We just had the heaviest rain I can recall in 2019 to date. It lasted under an hour but it gave us the better part of 1”, much needed rain. There may be some more shortly.
 
Ended up with 3.55" of rain from that slow moving storm earlier, all which fell in about an hour. Had several wind gusts in the 40s with the highest at 46. It was insane! I got several videos but not sure how to upload them here?
 
We just had the heaviest rain I can recall in 2019 to date. It lasted under an hour but it gave us the better part of 1”, much needed rain. There may be some more shortly.
The walk should be nice ... clean air and the aroma of vegetation ... sans pollen ... enjoy ... :cool:
 
The walk should be nice ... clean air and the aroma of vegetation ... sans pollen ... enjoy ... :cool:

Thanks, Phil. Nice thought but there will be no outside walk today as we're getting a second heavy thunderstorm. We're easily over 1" now and maybe nearing 1.5" and still raining. This is the best rain here in a loooong time.
 
Thanks, Phil. Nice thought but there will be no outside walk today as we're getting a second heavy thunderstorm. We're easily over 1" now and maybe nearing 1.5" and still raining. This is the best rain here in a loooong time.
Then enjoy the beer with a thunder ... or the other way around ... o_O
 
Then enjoy the beer with a thunder ... or the other way around ... o_O

We likely ended up with 2”+ for the day as the 2nd clump of storms lasted quite awhile (2+ hours). What a blessed event!

Meanwhile, the Masters forecast is not so good with chances of showers Fri and Sat and high chances along with thunderstorm risks on Sun.
 
I know severe weather is dominating the coverage as should be but boy does recent modeling look real cold for late April way below average at least ..
 
I know severe weather is dominating the coverage as should be but boy does recent modeling look real cold for late April way below average at least ..
Yeah a period of below normal temps is looking likely. Wouldn't be surprised to see some frost/ freeze issues

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It looks like the high today will be 84*F, I think making this the warmest day of the year.
 
I know severe weather is dominating the coverage as should be but boy does recent modeling look real cold for late April way below average at least ..

Yeah a period of below normal temps is looking likely. Wouldn't be surprised to see some frost/ freeze issues

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I actually have a question, I keep hearing about the AAM dipping, I know a dip can cause way more severe weather as it supports stronger troughs in the west and a better chance at a stronger SER (-AAM pretty much slows zonal winds, which can actually help longwave troughs become much stronger/amplified), it can cuase a Nina pattern at times and is actually common with a Nina, I wonder what this will do with severe wx, it will probably cuase a bad outbreak if it repeats what it has done in the past, can’t wait to see satellite loops when convection will soon blow up in the western pacific
 
It looks very questionable for chances of completing the 4th round of the Masters on Sunday. Good chance for a finish on Monday just like 1983, 1973, and 1961.

SUNDAY
CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE MORNING, THEN
SHOWERS LIKELY WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. CHANCE OF RAIN 70 PERCENT
 
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