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Pattern April Chasing ???⛈⛈⛈

If this setup holds I think this is an event where you want to be fringed with the heaviest precip on the NW side of the precip shield. At least for areas outside of elevation. This could work out for someone
 
I think it’s pretty remarkable we’re having an April snow conversation with a piece of energy that never even closes off at 500. That might actually hurt us in the end
 
As of now, the high for the day is 79*F.

May have to wait until later to see if there was an intra-hour 80*F (probably not).
 
Quite interesting if true but the NAM, EURO, and ICON and I still haven’t seen full Gfs but it’s precip sheiks is further west as well. But all show a small stripe of snow along the same upstate SC, through Charlotte corridor .. quite interesting and wondering if we can get some more shifts west
 
Nick_boynton_ said:
Quite interesting if true but the NAM, EURO, and ICON and I still haven’t seen full Gfs but it’s precip sheiks is further west as well. But all show a small stripe of snow along the same upstate SC, through Charlotte corridor .. quite interesting and wondering if we can get some more shifts west
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Gfs moves its precip shield west but still OTS and Fv3 joins the camp of every other model
 
ForsythSnow said:
So you're telling me there's a chance? LOL. We knew this would happen.
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Yeah this is a pretty stereotypical trend inside the medium range with a coastal cyclone, if we keep going along this path, the mountains could take a sizable hit although some snow really can't be ruled out along the I-85 corridor from ATL to GSO.
 
Need to be in the right place at the right time here.

If this low comes too far NW, precipitation is mainly rain, if it speeds up or slows down from the morning hours on Tue, we lose diurnal support to give us the few extra degrees that'll count in a big way here. Also don't forget the precipitation actually needs to be falling heavily enough to trigger snow growth in the DGZ and overcome any warm air in the low-levels.

We get the right kind of setup in friggin April, where was this in January or February. Smh

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Webberweather53 said:
Yeah this is a pretty stereotypical trend inside the medium range with a coastal cyclone, if we keep going along this path, the mountains could take a sizable hit although some snow really can't be ruled out along the I-85 corridor from ATL to GSO.
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I've seen snow/graupel and a tornado outbreak all in the same week in April during my Spring Break, I don't rule out much of anything at this point. lol
 
Two early April SE big snow analogs to consider: 1915 and 1987.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Need to be in the right place at the right time here.

If this low comes too far NW, precipitation is mainly rain, if it speeds up or slows down from the morning hours on Tue, we lose diurnal support to give us the few extra degrees that'll count in a big way here. Also don't forget the precipitation actually needs to be falling heavily enough to trigger snow growth in the DGZ and overcome any warm air in the low-levels.

We get the right kind of setup in friggin April, where was this in January or February. Smh

View attachment 18168
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This one could get interesting.... if the timing and precip shield cooperate.
 
Cad Wedge NC said:
I am still waiting on somebody to post all the reasons why this is impossible... sun angle, soil temps, boundary layer, climo, etc....
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How about it’s April then, and we can’t even get snow in Jan, February, or March
 
Cad Wedge NC said:
I am still waiting on somebody to post all the reasons why this is impossible... sun angle, soil temps, boundary layer, climo, etc....
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Honestly it's a great setup. Timing is overnight into morning with a possible deformation band from a strong low, cold air is in the right place, ridge in Alaska starts it, PV is far enough north, short term E based -NAO, and good tilt.
 
This really could catch people by suprise, unfortunately I’m right on the R/S line and we know how that works ?78E7FFD8-97A2-40D1-AAC8-B1158A71D3C7.gif
 
Sounding supports good rates, decent lift in the DGZ, very tiny amount of instability but lapses are not the best, still this supports accumulating snow EA8F81CE-AA4C-48E7-9647-BD8299507CCC.png
 
Soundings from the 3KM are very close for much of the areas north of CAE, this would actually support a brief change over to really heavy wet snow or big flakes mixing in with rain/IP with heavy precip helping to cool the column and such good lift in the DGZ
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I never thought we would be tracking something like this at this time, this thing has a shot at producing a decent snow for someone outside the mountains if timing and everything else goes right
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Soundings from the 3KM are very close for much of the areas north of CAE, this would actually support a brief change over to really heavy wet snow or big flakes mixing in with rain/IP with heavy precip helping to cool the column and such good lift in the DGZ
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Both of those soundings posted above are snow profiles ... no question. Thing that stands out to me is the lift in the DGZ. If that forecast comes to pass, someone will get a nice surprise. GSP is following the dry and warm GFS and says that there will be no precip that far west. Tonight's runs will be interesting.
 
Starting to get into 3km nam range and tomorrow we will be in range of the rgem. Those 2 models should be the go to as we get closer to go time. Western NC has a shot at seeing a few inches of snow if the precip makes it that far west like the nam shows.
 
Frontogenesis has trended better aswell, but also has trended to a tad bit more WAA, you want that in order for more widespread precip, but if you get To much your just getting a cold rain
9B2EAE65-5006-44C8-ACDF-9957E3A01F8E.gifDBDA9AA4-7606-40C6-B874-E2725E556574.png
 
If that strong fronto band sets up over your area with a close enough snow sounding, it’s gonna rip snow, simple, it would definitely overcome any limiting factors like the sun angle and warm ground temps, even in April
 
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