• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern Marvelous March

ICON had a colder rain at 00z. It’s still rain but a notably colder one if you’re into that. GFS went north and no longer has frozen precip into SC. And that, as they say, is that
 
A few tweaks and this could have worked out very nicely. Move that ridge back west and erase that big low off the west coast. Also get some of that ridging east of Greenland to situate on top of that PV and we would have been in bidness!

C01F027E-433E-4D90-90CE-4A8ED34E25B9.png
 
Not far off from some wintry precip falling this week. NWS Blacksburg already mentioning ice pellets/snow tonight for the mountains given the dry air...and Thursday/Friday system may end up further west and have a leading edge of sleet around Winston-Salem NC to Danville, VA and points west.
 
Last edited:
RGEM is cold enough for a winter storm if precip is 2-3 counties further west than expected Thursday. Already showing some mixed precipitation along the outer bands.
 
The skies cleared late last night and allowed for a low at KSAV of 37. That’s pretty notable cold for March 20 and was about 5 colder than forecasted.
 
NAM looks a little sleety from Davie County NC into Virgina. Convective like returns around 39 degrees at 4am. Low to mid 30s south-west Virgina...close call for the blue ridge. Might see a slop fall in Sparta, Jefferson and Boone.
 
Earlier maps suggest there will not be much of a cold plunge and related snow threat for the Carolinas on the 12Z GFS. Let’s see if this verifies.
 
GaWx said:
Earlier maps suggest there will not be much of a cold plunge and related snow threat for the Carolinas on the 12Z GFS. Let’s see if this verifies.
Click to expand...
I’ve seen worse! Looks better than 6zA4EDEE46-7FCC-462B-AB1D-8C5E4C4E7758.png
 
Nick_boynton_ said:
Fv3 much improved from previous runs but just a section of NC gets a big dog
Click to expand...
Both the gfs and fv3 start the 26 off around 60 degrees at midnight before temps crash during the morning hours, with noon temps around 37 or so. I’m not sure how ideal that kind of a setup is for snow, especially considering the magnitude of the cold and time of year. Speaking for RDU.
 
The big cooling trend of the models for the SE for late this month has ended from all indications. The trend now appears to be reversing to a little warmer.
 
GaWx said:
The big cooling trend of the models for the SE for late this month has ended from all indications. The trend now appears to be reversing to a little warmer.
Click to expand...

Not surprised.

To get the type of snow event and cold blast some of the models have been teasing at this latitude in late March would be anomalous.
 
Early 12Z Euro maps suggest it will be warmer than its 0Z run. Are we already close to being able to call off the significant threat of anything widespread and major for the Carolinas? Maybe.
 
Last edited:
GaWx said:
The skies cleared late last night and allowed for a low at KSAV of 37. That’s pretty notable cold for March 20 and was about 5 colder than forecasted.
Click to expand...
My lows have been coming in well below forecasted since last Saturday morning. My lowest forecasted low was supposed to be 30. My actual lows were 26.2 , 26.0 , 27.5 , 25.0 and 28.9 this morning. It’s been nice to say the least.
 
GaWx said:
Early 12Z Euro maps suggest it will be warmer than its 0Z run. Are we already close to being able to call off the significant threat of anything widespread and major for the Carolinas? Maybe.
Click to expand...

Actually they came in colder but all 1"+ snow accum. is in VA per the clown.
 
Still enough variation in model runs to watch with a passing interesting to see if anything will come of this system or not in regards to wintry weather. The Euro actually looked a little better to me than the 12z run from yesterday but haven't really looked at it closely since this is still 6-7 days out.
 
Nick_boynton_ said:
System definitly more amped on the euro ... I like that more than the surpresssed type of storm on the Gfs
Click to expand...
We wouldn’t have a chance in hell with a juiced up system. A sheared wave is preferred for the bulk of this board in the ‘dead’ of winter. A sheared wave is ‘vital’ for almost everyone on this board in late March if they want to see snow
 
GaWx said:
If you're Deeeeteeeee, you should love the 12Z Euro.
Click to expand...

Yep
a0098f1e9a7e8661b7bb4009b9060db0.jpg



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Most cold wx fans are going to like the late 12Z EPS 11-15 as it is more PNAey than the 0Z and certainly doesn't look warm.

Edit: If we were to ignore the cold bias, the 12Z EPS says no prolonged warmth through April 4+ with cool dominating over only isolated warm days.
 
GaWx said:
Most cold wx fans are going to like the late 12Z EPS 11-15 as it is more PNAey than the 0Z and certainly doesn't look warm.

Edit: If we were to ignore the cold bias, the 12Z EPS says no prolonged warmth through April 4+ with cool dominating over only isolated warm days.
Click to expand...
Any support for wintry threat?
 
Also looking at ensembles this thing looks to favor a late bloomer scenario well off the coast

But that’s just looking at snow accumulation maps. Maybe there’s precip there but it’s falling as rain idk
 
GaWx said:
Yes, some support for Virginia/DTland but not the SE other than maybe something very light near NC/Va border. And don't forget about the ever present cold bias.
Click to expand...
Wasn’t that because of snow cover or something? I feel like now there’s way less snow cover around even north for that to be in effect i dont know
 
Nick_boynton_ said:
Wasn’t that because of snow cover or something? I feel like now there’s way less snow cover around even north for that to be in effect i dont know
Click to expand...

Excellent question. Though a contributor, it hasn't been just due to snowcover. As recently as 5 days ago, the cold bias had been as strong as ever per stats Radiant presented for the month and the snowcover then wasn't as widespread as earlier in the month. But I suspect the cold bias will reduce some due to less snowcover as we go ahead.
 
if anyone deserves a hail storm tomorrow and spring snow its north of 40 and west of 77
 
GaWx said:
Most cold wx fans are going to like the late 12Z EPS 11-15 as it is more PNAey than the 0Z and certainly doesn't look warm.

Edit: If we were to ignore the cold bias, the 12Z EPS says no prolonged warmth through April 4+ with cool dominating over only isolated warm days.
Click to expand...
Walk, walk, walk ...

610temp.new.gif
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top