Fv3 also has the deform band of doom
Why is this 192 hours out
Why is this 192 hours out
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NCSNOW
Member
GFS 6z First
NCSNOW
Member
FV3: 6z
28 when I left the house this morning for my 3rd consecutive freeze. So far the bradford pear and privet have leafed out but little else. The red buds, plums, and blueberries are starting to bloom as well.
NCSNOW
Member
0z Euro:
Lol -20% chance. Fun to look at, though!
Gfs/fv has minimal support by its ensembles (gefs), altho they did take a better turn for the storm the gfs/FV is showing atm
snowlover91
Member
You know our best winter blocking and patterns always come in late March and April so this one might have legs lol.
On a serious note though we are 8 days out. IF we can get good model agreement and IF they are showing a similar setup when we are only 5 days out then it'll be worth looking at. For now I view it merely as some good entertainment. Fwiw here is what the 00z Euro showed.
Big snow NC on 12Z GFS on 3/26! And there's even 1-2" of snow way on down at the @GeorgiaGirl abode!
Edit: make that 3-4", not 1-2"!! This is pure insanity.
Edit: make that 3-4", not 1-2"!! This is pure insanity.
SimeonNC
Member
Third year in a row where we had a snow threat in March, it would be funny if this run verified.
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snowlover91
Member
Very interesting indeed. The start of this storm is only 162-168 hours out in NC per the GFS. The system is dropping down in the Midwest hours 120-144. This system is 5 days from entering the US and then 2 more days from possible SE US impacts whether it's cold rain, severe or wintry.
packfan98
Moderator
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Is there even an analog similar to this system in terms or path? Strangest system ever looking like some stray energy phased with the jet and produces this snowstorm. I like that it's spreading more into GA though. I still think it'll not happen but it's hilarious to see.
snowlover91
Member
Obviously a long ways to go with this one, models on the 12z runs are everywhere. The ICON and Fv3 on the 12z runs take this system well to our north producing more of a rain and possible severe threat. Tomorrow will be a key day for this system as we will hit the 144 hour window where the UK will be useful and the Euro as well. If this is going to be a legit threat then we need to see those two on board with this tomorrow and consistently showing a wintry scenario.
Waiting on the inevitable trend to cold rain for RDU.
Extremely hard for me to believe that a system coming from the trajectory shown, in late March, at 168 hours out is going to produce a southeast snowstorm.
I think maybe if it was the Fv3 showing this 240+ hours out then yeah I would agree ... but we have similar agreement on the same style of a system on both gfs twins the euro and CMC along with slow ensemble support should give a 168 hour threat a little more legitimacy
snowlover91
Member
We can't even get things to work out in the heart of winter so no reason to expect this to be any different, especially this time of year. It's good for entertainment purposes at least but chances of this working out for us are pretty low. If anything I'd bet on this verifying as a nice, boring, cold rain.
GeorgiaGirl
Member
Just looked at the 6z and it basically does the same thing as the 12z with different results....uhhh wat.
And yeah, total non believer in the 12z. If anything happens it will be north of I-40 in NC.
And yeah, total non believer in the 12z. If anything happens it will be north of I-40 in NC.
snowlover91
Member
The 12z Fv3 was well north, the ICON was as well. The 12z CMC is stuck at 108 for me on TT but so far all we really have is a storm signal with one model showing something wintry and the rest to our north/warm and rainy. It will be awhile before specifics can be nailed down but overall we need a PERFECT setup and timing to occur given the time of year... I just don't see it happening right now.
As much as I want a last snow to close things out,
Optimism in storm threats this winter has been useless and still should be, just be glad this cools us off for a little bit
Optimism in storm threats this winter has been useless and still should be, just be glad this cools us off for a little bit
Euro showed something and When the dv3 shows nothing it’s right but when it shows snow it’s wrong? It has the storm signal that’s the key rn ... I would like to see how the gefs are tho for confidence sake
Lol very true but we got it to (at least in NC) work out before winter started so hopefully we will get it to work our after it’s over lmao
Many more GEFS members coming in with a wintry system pushing funkily down across the US and pushing through the southeast ... waiting on a few more frames to see if threat is alive for many
High ratio snow in late March almost early April???? What sun angle or ground temperature problems?? Haha
WOW 12 GEFS REALLY WENT OFF THIS AFTERNOON. Many more snowy and even icy members boardwide
snowlover91
Member
After all the major issues of the Fv3 I don’t trust it no matter what it shows. The biggest thing is we need more than GFS/GEFS support, we need the Euro consistently on board and the UK especially under 144 hours. Tomorrow we will know a lot more but right now it doesn’t look like a good chance.
This is a NC and points north event. If anything. Late March is reserved for those areas. Pump your breaks if GFS is giving you snow outside of NC right now. It’s not worth the rug pull
The Fv3 hasn't just been horrible it's been horribly cold biased, showing fantasy snow after fantasy snow..... it being north and too warm for frozen precip is a big red flag to me. The GFS will come to it's senses soon, remember it's not being replaced because it's good
There is like zero chance that this thing holds all the way in from here. Even in the dead of winter, as you said earlier, we usually whiff. Models almost always press the cold too far south. This one looks exactly like a case of that to me. Not to poo poo @Nick_boynton_ because it's definitely fun to watch and track. And you're right, Nick, we need to look for ensemble support and other model support. But prior to 18z yesterday, I don't think we have had much shown in the way of wintry weather. We need the aforementioned support through many cycles to consider this a legitimate threat at this range. If we were 72 hours out and had this same scenario before us, I would argue that we indeed had a legit threat. But at this point, it's little more than a mirage, IMO. If all models were consistently showing a big block, I might feel differently. Anyway, it will be interesting and fun to watch over the next few days. Hopefully, we get a growing support and this event bucks the seasonal trends and historical norms for storms at this range.
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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Halloween ‘14, says Hola
Is it fair to assume that if its 23 in Raleigh then temps are in the teens or single digits in the Mid Atlantic ?
Speaking of GEFS support, I guess it has some..... still I'm not buying it (and hope I'm wrong)
NCHighCountryWX
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And the GFS control is almost out there by itself....
GEFS support doesn't really mean anything over one or two or three cycles at 168. We've seen this over and over and over. All kinds of groovy looking ensemble members that morph to 0 as we move in. What we need is broad model good agreement on a credible synoptic scenario that makes for an anomalously far south cold press a legitimate possibility. What we have is this:
What is there to press the PV that far south just prior to and during the storm, thus allowing cold air to be tapped and the storm to stay south? I don't know, but I do know that we've seen this same look show up a lot, only to verify farther north. I wish we had a big block up north of it. That would help. I do like the high pressure though. Maybe we can rely on that? But we've seen those verify weaker also. But maybe we get lucky this time.
I agree, in fact if you want to get technical imo none of the models output mean anything over one or two or three cycles at 168, 140, 120, 84, heck 72 (coastal this week). I was just throwing it out there. Trust me I'm out on this and will be shocked beyond belief if anything remotely to what the GFS is showing occurs.