pcbjr
Member
Daily dose of the funnies ...
-
Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!
Nothing like this will happen if the 12Z GFS is to be believed. More like near normal. It wouldn't at all surprise me if we're stil talking about model cold bias one year from now if the Atlantic doesn't finally cool off.
Last edited:
We're going to be talking about the model cold bias until these models are put out to pasture.
LetItSnow
Member
editorial edit from my perspective..
"It wouldn't at all surprise me if we're still talking about the models totally sucking one year from now"
I hope the models (specifically the GFS) are right about one thing, it's showing .5 or less total qpf here for the next 10 days. I'd be perfectly fine with no rain for a month, I've been dealing with water issues for long time now and I'm getting exhausted with it to be honest.
olhausen
Member
One thing I’m so thankful for is living in a non flood zone. When Nashville had those bad floods in 2010 I got 12-13 inches of rain in a little over 24 hours. While Nashville turned into a river I had no flooding at all due to being at the top of the rim. So not only does the elevation help a lot with winter weather it also helps to keep me flood free as all the water goes downhill into the bowl where Nashville is.
I should qualify my statement by saying I've not experience flooding... like you I'm not in a flood zone, in fact, if flood waters ever reach my doors it's time to load the ark. With that said I've had my share of issues from constant saturation, rotten foundation, rotten soil, rotten septic system, etc etc etc... Lol. I'm just ready to dry out so I can hopefully remedy these issues
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Lol. Lock it in. 
Since there's absolutely nothing else to talk about this winter, the upcoming explosive cyclogenesis in eastern Colorado this week is very analogous to March 13-14 1973 which produced a 971 low over northern Kansas (coarse NCEP R1 reanalysis will smooth out the actual strength of this storm)
About a week later, it snowed in the northern piedmont of NC.
We have literally nothing else to do at this juncture in the winter other than hope for a repeat of this or a massive bomb cyclone if we're gonna even get a sniff at snow from NC & points north.
Since there's absolutely nothing else to talk about this winter, the upcoming explosive cyclogenesis in eastern Colorado this week is very analogous to March 13-14 1973 which produced a 971 low over northern Kansas (coarse NCEP R1 reanalysis will smooth out the actual strength of this storm)
About a week later, it snowed in the northern piedmont of NC.
We have literally nothing else to do at this juncture in the winter other than hope for a repeat of this or a massive bomb cyclone if we're gonna even get a sniff at snow from NC & points north.
In case anyone is wondering, that 240 hour 12Z Euro coastal is not cold enough for wintry precip anywhere. It is all cold rain everywhere including chilly rain for @pcbjr and myself (40s). And of course, it will almost certainly not be anything like this on future runs. So, it is mainly for entertainment.
MichaelJ
Member
Well now for some good news, JB has the summer +3 AN for most of the SE, golly gee, looks just like the same area he had it -BN for the winter forecast. That means sport fans it will be a cool summer, hooray! And who says JB ALWAYS calls for BN temps????
pcbjr
Member
"Daily Dose of the Funnies" was for a reason ... but so long as we're looking at the color comics in the weehend edition of the thing they call a newspaper that ends up in my driveway, here's more ...
Well now for some good news, JB has the summer +3 AN for most of the SE, golly gee, looks just like the same area he had it -BN for the winter forecast. That means sport fans it will be a cool summer, hooray! And who says JB ALWAYS calls for BN temps????
I've hardly ever remembered him calling for a colder than normal summer in the SE and most of the east for that matter though I've seen him call for near normal. I think either he thinks he'll get more business if he calls for extremes no matter the season or he just likes to weenie out and call for extremes in general.
Keep in mind that he has energy clients. Whereas that shouldn't be a reason to have a bias to forecast higher energy usage causing wx (Radiant, for example, has never been the least bit biased), I'm suspicious he does just that.
Due to global warming, it is very hard to get a colder than normal summer nowadays. Actually, colder than normal winters are easier to achieve in this warmer world due to much higher volatility.
But ironically, I think that an oncoming moderate to strong El Nino offers the best chance for a cool summer.
Last edited:
pcbjr
Member
so long as a "cool" summer is not somehow attributable to named storms, bring it on ...
If El Nino is the reason, it certainly isn't because of increased hurricanes.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
For the first time in 3 years, it won't be snowing east of the mountains in NC on March 11th or 12th.
I agree! Unfortunately I don't know how we cool the Atlantic with constant above normal temps! If that's what truly is driving the SER I fear many dumpster fire winters! But, is there any credible research that ocean temps drive the ridges or if ocean temps are just a response to ridging?
Scored on both.... demolished this winter
Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
I honestly almost forgot how nice the 2017 event was esp in light of how we got screwed over with the Jan storm. Still didn’t totally make up for it, but it had to give you at least a little solace to know you were on a proverbial, modest “snow island” in northern Harnett during Mar 11-12 2017.Scored on both.... demolished this winter
Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
Oh yes, the chicken or the egg question that has been asked over the years, including by me. It seems that many mets feel that SST anomalies do feedback on the upper atmosphere at least to some extent. This is why they think the PDO and especially ENSO can influence the pattern, for example. Keep in mind that a large part of thermal energy is stored in the ocean.
Webb told me he thinks that the warm nearby Atlantic has an influence but that it is only a secondary of tertiary influence.
Forget about the upper atmosphere for the moment. I'll keep it simple by saying the obvious: a warmer nearby Atlantic will favor warmer over land if the winds are coming off the ocean. So, a warmer/colder than normal ocean should, if anything, favor more warmth/cold over nearby land in general..
One thing I'm very suspicious of is that models aren't handling the warm Atlantic very well at all.
Last edited:
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Euro control follows the operational almost verbatim and later in the run produces snow from NC and points north along the eastern seaboard. It’s not 18z and is a solution most of us actually want so don’t toss!
I guess it could be a double edged sword. The warm SST can probably fuel more moisture laden storms, but getting the cold here and favorable storm track is hard with the persistence of the ridge. On the other hand I guess the NAO could be our main problem. It hasn't averaged negative in almost s decade. And that was about the last time we had a truly cold winter.
BHS1975
Member
We don’t get those nickel and dime events anymore. It’s either all or nothing.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The 12z EPS is behind the operational about as much as it could be 9-10 days out w/ a decent clustering of members w/ formidable cyclones off the east coast, saw a couple absolute bombs on this suite down into the 970s & 960s near Hatteras (one member down to 969mb off SC). About the only chance anyone on this board is getting snow after the mid point March is either from a powerful ULL or very strong extratropical cyclone, one of that magnitude would definitely be more than enough to get us there.
Unfortunately, we're also near the vernal equinox & it's 9-10 days out so I'm obviously grasping at straws & these setups if there's even a chance of snow are notoriously the most elusive and difficult to forecast.
Like I said a few days ago, this period from Mar 17-23, if we made a few right moves only then might us into a position where we'd have a glimmer of hope/snowball's chance in hell for anything frozen to fall from the sky
My interest level is barely above 0, but since it's literally the only thing we can possibly talk about for virtually the rest of the winter, it'll be discussed anyway because why not.
Hopefully we get another nice cold shot &/or freeze after this storm to kill more bugs.
Unfortunately, we're also near the vernal equinox & it's 9-10 days out so I'm obviously grasping at straws & these setups if there's even a chance of snow are notoriously the most elusive and difficult to forecast.
Like I said a few days ago, this period from Mar 17-23, if we made a few right moves only then might us into a position where we'd have a glimmer of hope/snowball's chance in hell for anything frozen to fall from the sky
My interest level is barely above 0, but since it's literally the only thing we can possibly talk about for virtually the rest of the winter, it'll be discussed anyway because why not.
Hopefully we get another nice cold shot &/or freeze after this storm to kill more bugs.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
You know this winter is a complete dumpster fire when we're looking for late March to try & save us.
BHS1975
Member
That’s one hell of a block damn.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
MichaelJ
Member
Well of course it is, we are out of winter now right?That’s one hell of a block damn.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
BufordWX
Member
Do you guys want this EPS member to happen?
We would get the shaft in Georgia
Cad Wedge NC
Member
That would be a kick in the gut for those of us in the foothills.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Epic shaft for Charlotte. Hard pass.
He did say REASON for the AN temps would be due to night time lows.................. Wet and muggy.
I would take my 1” thank u next
CLT whiffed with that storm back in dec, they deserve better, but the rest of the SE does aswell, lol anafrontal flurries, that anafrontal system really tried producing a damn tornado in central NC ?, summary of this winter
GEFS ensembles also has a good amount of members with just some funky low pressure riding the east coast and looping around some cold some not enough ... definitly will be interesting to see 00z models
Yes
snowlover91
Member
This is interesting.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
#desparate
ForsythSnow
Moderator
200 miles too far away. I still doubt any storm will happen but if it comes far W I'll take it if given enough cold.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
It's been unusually persistent at this lead on the ECMWF the last several runs so we'll see... If any snow falls (even in the NE US) w/ a monster coastal low it's either all or nothing. There's a very fine line between it not snowing at all in a setup like that, and then precip falling heavy enough to produce any snow which then accumulates anyway despite warm ground, etc.
B
