Strong +PNA with a good trough in the east and WAR backed far away from us and another failboat signal for a coastal, this just screams either cold rain or dry cold
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GeorgiaGirl
Member
**Logs in**
There's nothing noteworthy on the GEFS wintry weather wise south of Northern NC, but it does have a pattern that I'd be rooting for if it were more of what's normally the heart of winter. Now, if only it were actually January-February. :fp: :fp: :fp:
There's nothing noteworthy on the GEFS wintry weather wise south of Northern NC, but it does have a pattern that I'd be rooting for if it were more of what's normally the heart of winter. Now, if only it were actually January-February. :fp: :fp: :fp:
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SHOTS FIRED! I wasn’t able to get snow in January or February so I’m ALL IN for a no snow march. I won my bet and got to keep my account for ATL getting below 30 degrees in March. So now I’m playing with with house money! No frozen south of TN NC
Any members show anything? Mean looks cool and occasionally showery.
Trending snowier from Winston-Salem to Statesville NC on both the FV3 and GFS clown maps. 1-3” now. This Friday.
I disagree with NWS GSP. 1” of sleet sounds ridiculous in this setup I think the mountains will see more snow than sleet. They are way overdoing the warm nose given the expected surface conditions, timing and precip. They do mention a low chance of a significant event in their AFD.
pcbjr
Member
So nice for a March ...
U can’t look at specific individual members .. look at the means ... ensembles are screaming for a big storm setup and even multiple shots of possible winter weather... if we could get some blocking over Greenland it would halo for sure but a great pattern none the less .. marches typically end up being very snowy for some just because of the dynamics at play with most systems this time of year
Dare I say it but the NAM has thunder snow potential from Greensboro, NC to Mountain City, Tennessee this Friday. Warning criteria for the foothills. Highly unlikely but joining some other interesting trends 48 hours out now.
Really doesn’t support thunder, weak lift/Frontogenesis and no sort of instability/elevated instability and lapses pretty much suck, maybe a little steep but not enough to really support thunder, this supports maybe a burst of snow but no thunder
That’ll keep dem damn squitos away
Downeastnc
Member
One of the craziest storms I can remember was Mar 24/25th 1983 we had 7-10" and i remember the winds being crazy and thundersnow.....this map only shows NC but there just isnt much on this storm I can find on the net for SC/GA though I know there were 6-10" totals in SC as well and maybe even into GA. It was well into the 70's just a few days before this storm.
http://climate.ncsu.edu/climate/winter/event_details?e=104
EastAtlwx
Meteorologist
Downeastnc
Member
Wow cool find.....there were wind gust into the 80's along the NC coast with this thing as well, I was 11 and its only one of 4 times I have ever heard thunder during the snow.....
Way down here there was actually a trace of sleet mixed with cold rain!
Well the Gfs twins are out along with the cmc and honestly there isn’t much more to ask for in modeling than what they are giving us now. Just massive troughing in the east and a great +PNA I haven’t seen all winter long. Split flow action and lots of moisture and low pressure to be tapped in the gulf ... Euro will look interesting I’m willing to bet
tonysc
Member
Yeah we got 6" in Greenwood, SC.
12z Euro looks good at end of run.
Unfortunately it has had that thing where SER trends stronger as time gets closer, which would probably allow more opportunities for severe wx, that look at the end wasn’t bad but 850s are already a problem
I honestly don’t see snow out of NC/TN, maybe a close call but with no blocking things are gonna be so close in reach, also BL temps is more of a issue this time of year, ofc things are more dynamic This time around
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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Man , if we could only get a ridge on the west coast, like the one on the bottom animation, we would get a winter storm for sure!
You were correct until the end, or you meant a winter storm as in 40 degree or below rain
Welp, if you live in the SE here is one thing to cling onto if your holding out hope, gfs kinda wants to go bowling, it’ll prolly change tonight 
TN/NC and points north. Imagine my surprise!
More like DC and north, lol
Storm5
Member
Passing through New York they have snow . I’m moving here so I can live through a HECS
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Even the phase can’t save us. Textbook Miller A track but everyone’s about 15 degrees too warm. If only it were... Janfebtuary ?
?
The sad thing is, if we had this transient pattern that March is offering up in January or February we would have definately seen some snow
TurdruaryEven the phase can’t save us. Textbook Miller A track but everyone’s about 15 degrees too warm. If only it were... Janfebtuary
View attachment 17491
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Gfs shows two potential winter storms back to back with 850s cold enough to support snow but ground temps a little too warm but it’s so close I’m not too worried about it
Buckfever
Member
Can you post the Gfs images of those ?
snowlover91
Member
Yep both of those are close but the issue is the BL being a bit too warm. As we get into mid to late March it seems to be much more difficult to get the BL to cooperate even if 850s are at 0C or colder. Dynamic systems or a strong Arctic airmass can overcome that which is what we would likely need to get something here... and this time of year you want the precip falling at night to give the best possible shot of it being cold enough in the BL.
Not a bad look, nice ULL, but BL temps are a issue, I don’t think this happening during daytime helps 
But yet again when it happens during daytime dynamics are enhanced, better instability/lift, still would rather have this happen during night
If that ULL you posted above were farther south, it would be a decent potential for us. The one at the end of the run is almost ideal, but the temps are warmer, unfortunately. It's always something.
1. I think pure bowling balls/ULLs are generally overrated for wintry precip. potential for much of the SE US outside the mtns. OTOH, nothing even comes close to GOM low related potential for the SE in general. The only major ATL snow that I'm aware of from a pure bowling ball was 3/1/2009 though they've had some lead to nonmajor snow. Keep in mind that I've looked at historical wx maps for most of the major storms. Upper level maps go back to the 1950s.
2. The really cold for mid to late March GFS solutions we were seeing as recently as the Wednesday runs for 3/16-22 (remember that run giving Waycross a 31 on ~2/21?) with the 850 mb 0C line going well down into FL have not been showing up since. I've lost the excitement I had as it now appears they were for the zillionth time this winter just mirages.
2. The really cold for mid to late March GFS solutions we were seeing as recently as the Wednesday runs for 3/16-22 (remember that run giving Waycross a 31 on ~2/21?) with the 850 mb 0C line going well down into FL have not been showing up since. I've lost the excitement I had as it now appears they were for the zillionth time this winter just mirages.
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I find the upcoming pattern at least giving us some optimism.. I mean first we know these storms are still well out with range where significant changes in temperature and dynamics can occur within 72 hours. I think having the Consistency in showing a storm potential and upper level low potential is a great start rn.. it’s easy to get discouraged but if anything the models are trending better and better each run with regards to actual storm potential. Now let’s track as we do every storm and see the potential that exists.