Snowflowxxl
Member
I'm on spring break the week of the 18th, so lets not have cold weather please.
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You probably should have never said that. The Georgia Weather Gods don't play nice in the sandbox. Your spring break is doomed.
Gefs is standing by that idea of mainly just a +PNA, but no blocking around Greenland, still PNA is a main driver to our weather in the SE and it would still be pretty cold with this look, you can see some split flow action with the active STJ, I got a question tho, Isn’t the PV itself suppose to be the strongest on record in the upcoming weeks ? 
I went ahead a made a thread for this Friday. Winter storms often trend better on the tail end of arctic air like we are seeing this week. NWS already has low odds for 3-6” for NC/VA and 2” for Mount Airy. Yadkin Valley region (Yadkinville area) could see a thump if moisture and timing is perfect. Already cold dry at the surface.
New GFS has pockets of 6-12” for NC this Friday. A light wintry mix to rain all the way down to the NC/SC state line. Looks to be trending better.
Ilovesnow28
Member
I think that period definitely needs to be watch there's been some sort of signal of a storm around that time period from about the 18th to 21st... That may be our last and only chance for a board wide storm... I'm staying confident
So, that would normally be bad for SE cold, correct?
At 10mb.....the tropospheric PV isn't nearly as strong or coupled yet. But that does make you wonder if we go into a strong +AO pattern in about 30 days.
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Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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Well, our friend Judah said when the polar vortex split, Armageddon cold was coming, and that wasn’t even remotely close to right, maybe as it strengthens, it will get us the cold!?
Snowflowxxl
Member
Booooooooooo
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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The G.O.A.T agrees! From the other place
It's hard to get all that excited about any particular index or pattern in mid-late March unless there are accompanying late season storm threats, IMO. The FV-3 gets to a big -NAO *again*, starting around 200 hr. At 300, it looks like this:
That, I could maybe get excited about (but of course we know it's not going to happen). Otherwise, maybe some climo-favored mountain snow showers, along with generally cool temps and the occasional rain threat. We're at the point now where we need home runs. Walks just aint gonna cut the mustard.
That, I could maybe get excited about (but of course we know it's not going to happen). Otherwise, maybe some climo-favored mountain snow showers, along with generally cool temps and the occasional rain threat. We're at the point now where we need home runs. Walks just aint gonna cut the mustard.
I think the key is whether or not we're once again looking at only mirages/kayfabe. If one were to bet on that, they'd have the house edge due to repeating strong cold bias. However, one of these days the house will finally lose, and, if so, they could lose really big.
When I make these posts, I'm mainly saying the model looks cool to cold for the SE verbatim. I'm not saying it will be right or even if right that that necessarily means wintry for many or any outside of mtns. But we know we need the cold to even have a chance of getting something magical. And we probably need the models to at least show the cold returning to actually get the cold.
I hear you, and I agree. I think the PNA story has merit and will probably happen. There's quite a bit of agreement with it developing. In January or February, it might be enough. But in late March, we're going to have to get much below normal air advected in here (which a PNA can certainly help with) and/or get a bigtime storm...something like the 0z GFS had. Something like the FV-3 map above could get it done. Outside of something like that, I feel like AN heights out west will bring in cool air...but that's about it. If we could get some really, really cold air down here, now that would be good. That may be what the EPS is showing; I just can't see it.
what suprises me is how cold the northern plains/Montana remain, I guess due to snowpack ? Even with a +PNA there cold is nearly equivalent to that of a -EPO, this is more towards hour 280+, they’ve had one hell of a winter, cold as shiii, and they’ve really haven’t had a cold bias like us in the SE has had
To summarize, the 12Z EPS and GEFS have verbatim temps that are overall for the SE near the normal for the heart of winter or about 10 degrees colder than normal for the 5 days centered on 3/18. The coldest anomalies further west/less cold further east (that in a way would be the same pattern). For still being 12 days out, you can't ask for much of a stronger signal. But, we've had this strong signal that far out repeatedly this winter and it has almost always vanished due to a 7 degree average cold bias in the 11-15 day period. So, IF that were to be the case once again, the SE would end up near normal rather than much below. We'll see. Now we have a true El Nino. Will that make a difference?
Exactly Why I’m not optimistic at all for a winter storm which that upcoming pattern, likely no -NAO or any sort of blocking around based off ensembles, just more cold rains and types of storms where we say : but if it happened in January it could of been something special
Honestly, I'm not sure my friend. I will say that there is only 1 thing that stands out to me with regards to the Polar Vortex. The only thing these PV splits the last couple of winters have done is put Eurasia in the deep freezer and given them 5000 inches of snow while the SE US basks in the warmth of a SER. I think I am done with paying attention to the PV hoopla from now on.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Boo? That's not a boo. That's a yes! +PNA is good.
Snowflowxxl
Member
Its middle March, I am ready for spring so it is a BOO! lol. If this was showing in Dec/Jan/Feb I would have been excited, but I have moved on from winter now. I don't need 40s for highs during my spring break either haha.
I do miss consistent warmth and pulse T-storms but certainly don’t miss the mosquitoes/green inch worms and there webs and tent caterpillars so yeah a +PNA is a must
I expect you here in late July doing two-bits cheer for 105F heat index and mammoth mosquitoes, mmmmmkay?
I agree! to little to late as far as I'm concerned
Snowflowxxl
Member
You will see me, I have no problem with heat. It's not my favorite thing in the world but i'd rather it be 100 than 15.
Anything after the second week in March is a NC TN and points north threat. No need to even model watch for winter weather potential if you live anywhere else in the south. This failboat has long sunk
I like to model watch for below normal temperatures all year round regardless of wintery precip. potential. I hardly ever get wintery precip. anyway. Most winters have none. There's more to wx watching than just watching for wintery precip.
I’m bitter. It’s just so damn hard to line one up in mid March. On a positive note I don’t think any bugs survived the cold last night. I haven’t seen one all day ??
What’s unfortunate tho is that it brings 2 severe wx threats in close proximity to each other before the cold really comes in
Ilovesnow28
Member
Im very confident that we may pull one more wintry storm out around that period
well since I'm in Columbia I'll bet my house lol
Snowflowxxl
Member
I'll bet posting privileges for the month of April that ATL will not record any more snow for rest of the year.
dont even look!!!!!I'd take that bet as well. But I'm also curious to how the 18Z GEFS look at the moment.
LOL Don't take the bait, huh?
no.
Ilovesnow28
Member