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Pattern Marvelous March

Rain Cold said:
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You called it on Monday.

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Nice and interesting write up by Rah NWS

The next system continues to at least threaten our region with some
wintry precipitation (late in the weekend) into early Monday.
However, confidence remains low to moderate as differences continue
with the forecast storm track. The latest EC appears to be too far
west with the low track (along the Appalachians), breaking away from
the ensemble members, keeping the storm more suppressed or close to
NC.

For a Winter Storm threat: A couple of important issues to be ironed
out include: 1). Amount and depth of cold air east of the
Appalachians (models show a bitterly cold arctic air mass over the
Midwest - but how much of the cold will make it over the
Appalachians - without a parent high or extension of the Midwest
high that reaches NY/PA? (so that the cold air can drive down the
eastern seaboard). It is hard to get the cold air east of the
Mountains unless we have a favorable high over the Great Lakes to
New England.

Also 2), storm track. The current forecast storm track that is
favored by WPC (discarding the 00z/EC operational run), takes the
storm to near Florence SC by 12z/Monday. This would be favorable for
snow in the NC Mountains in the NW part of the state, and in our
Piedmont (IF the cold air can drive down the eastern seaboard in
time, before the storm and moisture depart Monday.

Sunday afternoon into Monday morning will have to be watched. But,
for now, we have a cold rain for most areas of the Piedmont damming
region, with lows in the lower 30s, and highs in the upper 30s. We
need to have increased confidence in 1 and 2 before we get
significant snow or a wintry mixture placed in the forecast.

Remember, by March 1 or so - our average high is in the upper 50s
and our average low is in the mid 30s. So, to get a day of snow - we
need a very cold air mass to go along with the precipitation. The
air mass to our NW will continue brutally cold Sunday and Monday.
The cold is there, but can we tap into it soon enough?
 
I think the coastal on Wednesday may be worth watching for eastern NC. It should be plenty cold, and we have plenty of time for it to trend NW (hopefully just enough for NC to get snow)!
 
CyclonicFury said:
I think the coastal on Wednesday may be worth watching for eastern NC. It should be plenty cold, and we have plenty of time for it to trend NW (hopefully just enough for NC to get snow)!
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It seems this winter we have gotten the opposite trends of what we actually need or not enough of one in a favorable direction. My guess would be it ends up being suppressed just enough to tease us but not enough for anything of substance, similar to the near miss coastal a few weeks back.
 
It is crazy how good things looked a couple of days ago with the GFS and Euro both showing a good hit for NC with very similar totals. It was the first time since December that we actually had agreement among the models, and not just the FV3 showing a fantasy storm. And then 24 hours later it was all gone. That is just crazy. I don't know why the models do this, but there is a problem with them having a good storm 7-8 days out, and then when we get to day 6, nothing. I mean, it went from 6 to 8 inches for parts of NC to nothing in 24 hours. Why does that happen so much with these models?
 
Not surprised support for the first wave on 3/4 vanished and it came NW. The upper air pattern is just terrible for that time frame. Maybe 3/6 could come back but suppression looks likely. Major changes continue on the models for this period so I’m still watching for NC.
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Jon said:
Not surprised support for the first wave on 3/4 vanished and it came NW. The upper air pattern is just terrible for that time frame. Maybe 3/6 could come back but suppression looks likely. Major changes continue on the models for this period so I’m still watching for NC.
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If all we can get out of it is more cold rain, I hope the second wave stays out to sea. But it looks like the first wave is too warm, and the second wave would be cold enough for snow, but the precip might miss us out to sea.
 
Still major changes going on and we have seen no consistency yet with models so for me In NC I’m definitely not letting this one go plus some of our biggest storms pop within 4 days and models pick it up out of no where ... so not too worried he’s.... until we get into the short range models showing it I won’t give up
 
ICON looks very nice for the 2nd wave, maybe we can get this one to trend in our favor. Let's get the Euro and UK on board with a nice 2nd wave and then it will be worth watching.
 
Isn't
snowlover91 said:
I'd take that in an instant and call it a winter. Let's see what the GFS, CMC, and Euro show. I'd like to have the Euro and UK especially on board with this as they have been leading the way with this system so far.
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Euro been showing second wave, kinda like icon is showing correct? If so, I notice that also. Plus gfs had it yesterday
 
accu35 said:
Isn't
Euro been showing second wave, kinda like icon is showing correct? If so, I notice that also. Plus gfs had it yesterday
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Euro has the 2nd wave but it's suppressed. If we can get the Euro to adjust NW with it some we might be in business. Euro has been leading the way with the 1st wave, GFS has been playing catchup. Surprisingly the CMC has also done very well in showing this first wave as a cutter for quite awhile now.
 
CMC keeps wave 2 suppressed and weak. The previous run it had wave 2 tracking well inland so there is still a lot of variation with that one and we probably won't know much more about it for another 1-2 days the way things have been shifting around days 4-6 on models.
 
Shawn said:
12z GFS tried, but a flizzard at best. Late surface low well off the coast.
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Yep. At some point this thing needs to start coming north. Not sure when this usually occurs? Closer to the event?
 
Shawn said:
12z GFS tried, but a flizzard at best. Late surface low well off the coast.
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The Fv3 looks dry for it as well. I'm more interested in what the Euro and UK show though, GFS and Fv3 have been late to pick up on the NW trend with wave 1 and were too weak/suppressed until the past few runs.
 
Looks like the UKMET will have a very weak system closer to the coast than the GFS. Maybe Eastern NC gets precip, no maps.
 
So is the suppression related to strength of system? If it comes back north, will it have more precip?
 
Sleet City USA said:
So is the suppression related to strength of system? If it comes back north, will it have more precip?
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Right now it appears to be based off heights pressing down from the north and the energy seems pretty weak. Some of the models and ensemble members dig the energy further west and allow it to strengthen more with more qpf to work with. The ICON would be a good example of that.
 
A lot of times when you see these coastals pop in the mid to long range a NW trend can’t really be expected for those inland. I think round two would be a coastal Carolina threat if anything. That has been my experience. Good luck everyone. I would love for this to be an exception

Edit: clarification all of ENC would be included not just immediate coast
 
metwannabe said:
Honestly going to be almost unbelievable if once again we lose systems to the NW (nothing new there) but then follow that up with a system that needs a NW trend and stays suppressed..... snow shields in full force
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Seeing how violently this Sunday night rain event shifted north once inside day 6 I am wondering if we see the same for this "potential" coastal.

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0z EPS had the coastal just off the coast. I guess a big amped shift west would be good for the mountains. I just hope someone in our neck of the hood sees snow before we spring.


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KyloG said:
Seeing how violently this Sunday night rain event shifted north once inside day 6 I am wondering if we see the same for this "potential" coastal.

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0z EPS had the coastal just off the coast. I guess a big amped shift west would be good for the mountains. I just hope someone in our neck of the hood sees snow before we spring.


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Do you have access to the 6z EPS?
 
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