Storm5
Member
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snowlover91
Member
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Thanks, it looks like there's quite a bit of spread here still with quite a few members showing some very light snows over NC. I'm assuming that these are from the second wave generating some light snows and not the first one?
Stormlover
Member
Don't know if this has been posted on here or not:
Fv3 delayed:
The launch of the new model, which had been slated for March 20, was postponed due to “two issues” found during testing. Its forecasts for snow depth were “unrealistically high” and the model exhibited a “a cold bias in the lower atmosphere,” a memo from the National Weather Service said. These issues were independently identified by private sector forecasters and university researcher
Fv3 delayed:
The launch of the new model, which had been slated for March 20, was postponed due to “two issues” found during testing. Its forecasts for snow depth were “unrealistically high” and the model exhibited a “a cold bias in the lower atmosphere,” a memo from the National Weather Service said. These issues were independently identified by private sector forecasters and university researcher
Thor
Member
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Hopefully we get a nice bit of spring-like weather and/or thunderstorms out of this. Definitely beyond done w/ cold rain
accu35
Member
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It was identified at first glance by us lol.
ajr
Member
I could be reading this wrong, but EPS really doesn't look bad to me at the 500 level for the second wave... more blocking up in AK with a stronger, more consolidated PV lobe
For context, here is what @Webberweather53 shared yesterday as a composite for good snow in March:
For context, here is what @Webberweather53 shared yesterday as a composite for good snow in March:
It’s a battle between the WAR and trof/PV lobe
It looks pretty good, all things being equal. Our problem is keeping a similar look inside 100 hours.
The Op Euro looks like this:
There's some energy there in the flow, and we'll probably end up with a coastal (if the look holds).
Here are the 850s:
They look really good. I don't expect them to look that good at go-time, though. We have seen these suppressive looks back off as we move in. Look at that 1051 mb high. No way it will be that strong. I don't have any idea what surface temps are throughout the SE, but if the coastal backs up, the heights relax a little, but not too much, and we can get some confluence in the NE, aided by the storm system up there, we could get some snow out of that.
Anyway, it's a pretty good look at this lead. If we could just one time this winter get a little bit of luck -- things to trend in our favor -- this could turn into something really good.
Edit: I used the word "Look" way too many times in that post. Turrible. Heading to thesaurus.com for a while....
snowlover91
Member
There is a high degree of spread among the GEPS members in regards to the LP track and sensible weather across the SE. The majority of the members actually support a colder/suppressed solution with the system vs the OP run.
Likewise the 12z GEFS members have a pretty high degree of variability as well with significant timing differences and outcomes among members still. The majority of the members that bring precip to NC are predominantly rain except the far N/NW areas.
Likewise the 12z GEFS members have a pretty high degree of variability as well with significant timing differences and outcomes among members still. The majority of the members that bring precip to NC are predominantly rain except the far N/NW areas.
BHS1975
Member
Well since almost every storm we had this year ended up cutting, suppression is good right now.
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Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Six Mile Wx
Member
Icon is in disagreement so far at 90 hrs
pcbjr
Member
Here's hoping some neighbors get a smile ...
I just want to say before the 18Zs start rolling in furiously, thank you to all of you who post maps, share data, and provide analysis. There are certainly many official and unofficial Internet sources to get weather info, but it's really awesome to be able to come here, get good, up-to-date info, and share in both the good and the disappointing runs with such a diverse community of weather enthusiasts. I know there are a wide range of locales represented here and that our interests with respect to specific events are not always aligned. But it really is a lot of fun to be able to interact together, to model-watch together, and to chase the snow that never seems to come together.
I don't know...there's something about getting to know folks in different places that share your interests. It's almost like you can say you have friends that you've never met in places you've never been. That's kind of neat. We don't always have the same style or post the same way or have the same biases. But in the end, the diversity makes things interesting and provides a background that fosters growth and learning.
So, thanks again for the data, the charts, and the analysis you all provide. The contributions are appreciated. And guests, please take a moment to sign up and join the conversation. It's worth the small effort to become a member!
I don't know...there's something about getting to know folks in different places that share your interests. It's almost like you can say you have friends that you've never met in places you've never been. That's kind of neat. We don't always have the same style or post the same way or have the same biases. But in the end, the diversity makes things interesting and provides a background that fosters growth and learning.
So, thanks again for the data, the charts, and the analysis you all provide. The contributions are appreciated. And guests, please take a moment to sign up and join the conversation. It's worth the small effort to become a member!
Seems like if any good trends happen under 100 hours lol, remember with that coastal, even if it whiffed it was very close and trended west under 100 hours, and then the light front end thump we had last week, trended better under 100 hours, ICON did well with that one
Seems overly simplistic...but in winters when it wants to snow we get great trends inside day 5, when it doesn't want to snow we don't. Seems like this winter nothing has gone our way since that early December event. Last winter we got incredible changes inside day 5 for the 2 events in January, well atleast Raleigh did. I would be happy to see the NW parts of the SE get a winter storm, that would be a big win.
Anything is possible with rain storms. North south east west the liquid precipitation is always in abundance
I spoke too soon. Now it looks like it may be coming in colder than recent runs for March 4-5 though warmer immediately preceding those days early on March 3.. Sorry.
Yes I was about to say it looks like that front is trending stronger on both Gfs twins ... should allow for more cold air to sleep further south this run
snowlover91
Member
Interesting.
Stronger lobe this run, colder 850s aswell
GFS is a step in the right direction. Bleeding has stopped for now
snowlover91
Member
Fairly significant change on the GFS. In fact it’s suppressed a bit too much for much precip except light snow.
Nomanslandva
Member
ICON was colder at 120 than the warmer of the 12z models. On the 12z runs. I don't why so many people were calling them cutters. The low track was to far west for everyone east of the spine of the mountains but the track was east of the mountains and did not go to the lakes. And really, it does not have the miller B ish look we have all season long. Its an inland runner but looks Miller A to me.
Could it end up cutting, sure. But right now, that is not what is shown. I think there is still hope for this one.
Could it end up cutting, sure. But right now, that is not what is shown. I think there is still hope for this one.
What a difference 
That SE Canada lobe webb keeps mentioning is really a key to what happens here, it was just slightly stronger, a tad south this run and look at the weak ridging beggining to develop over Greenland ?, also the WAR was less of a impact this run
one more thing, more of a bombing low around Newfoundland is helpful, stronger/more south it is, it can shove the higher pressure more south resulting in a more southern track/LP, even if the high pressure weakened around Montana 
That SE Canada lobe webb keeps mentioning is really a key to what happens here, it was just slightly stronger, a tad south this run and look at the weak ridging beggining to develop over Greenland ?, also the WAR was less of a impact this run
one more thing, more of a bombing low around Newfoundland is helpful, stronger/more south it is, it can shove the higher pressure more south resulting in a more southern track/LP, even if the high pressure weakened around Montana 85andnorth
Member
Long time lurker, first time poster. Lol Per GSP about an hour and a half ago.
At the surface, a low pressure system develops to our west on Sunday in response to the digging trough. Moisture and precip spread back into the area as the low moves east. However, the ECMWF is stronger, wetter, and farther north with the surface low. Therefore, it shows little in the way of wintry precip until the low pulls away on Monday with some brief NW flow type snow for the mountains. The thermal profiles suggest more of a mixed p-type scenario if enough low level cold air could move in Sunday night. The GFS still has widespread precip but is also colder with the low track closer to the Gulf Coast. That said, the cold air doesn`t move in until the back side of the low keeping any wintry precip confined mainly to the mountains, with some spillage out across the I-40 corridor Sunday night and again Monday night as the low is departing. The GFS indicates a potential mixed p-type problem initially turning to a rain or snow scenario as the colder air moves in. The GFS ensemble mean shows a rain or snow scenario with up to an inch of snow outside of the mountains with up to 4 inches across the mountains, but there is a wide spread in individual members across the area. Given the above problems, have limited any p-type concerns to rain or snow, but this is subject to change as the event approaches. Also, limited PoP to the chance range for any one period. The models also show a lingering inverted surface trough across the area for Tuesday. The ECMWF is dry while the GFS has light precip over the area in response. I have kept the forecast dry for now given the uncertainty. Model blend temps have come in warmer through the period, but blended with the previous forecast to avoid some big changes in the forecast. The warmer temps would limit the amount of wintry precip outside of the mountains as well. However, there are good indications of a cooling trend through the period.
At the surface, a low pressure system develops to our west on Sunday in response to the digging trough. Moisture and precip spread back into the area as the low moves east. However, the ECMWF is stronger, wetter, and farther north with the surface low. Therefore, it shows little in the way of wintry precip until the low pulls away on Monday with some brief NW flow type snow for the mountains. The thermal profiles suggest more of a mixed p-type scenario if enough low level cold air could move in Sunday night. The GFS still has widespread precip but is also colder with the low track closer to the Gulf Coast. That said, the cold air doesn`t move in until the back side of the low keeping any wintry precip confined mainly to the mountains, with some spillage out across the I-40 corridor Sunday night and again Monday night as the low is departing. The GFS indicates a potential mixed p-type problem initially turning to a rain or snow scenario as the colder air moves in. The GFS ensemble mean shows a rain or snow scenario with up to an inch of snow outside of the mountains with up to 4 inches across the mountains, but there is a wide spread in individual members across the area. Given the above problems, have limited any p-type concerns to rain or snow, but this is subject to change as the event approaches. Also, limited PoP to the chance range for any one period. The models also show a lingering inverted surface trough across the area for Tuesday. The ECMWF is dry while the GFS has light precip over the area in response. I have kept the forecast dry for now given the uncertainty. Model blend temps have come in warmer through the period, but blended with the previous forecast to avoid some big changes in the forecast. The warmer temps would limit the amount of wintry precip outside of the mountains as well. However, there are good indications of a cooling trend through the period.
pcbjr
Member
Welcome aboard!
I might and I hope I’m wrong but this run of the FV might be equivalent to dumpster juice lol
I’m wrong !!! Until you take its cold bias into consideration......
Gfs and Fv3 improved and both shift precip south and a more shreded supressed system.
It looked good for a moment, then it went to crap. Never separated from the fropa. Interesting, seems as though we still have a lot of options on the table.
Wow a completely different solution 6 hours later it’s almost like someone was saying something about that earlier ??
Last 5 fv3 runs, now this is interesting.
5 trend gif for 24 hours later.
5 trend gif for 24 hours later.
What’s also interesting is the Fv3 tries to keep the cold around a lot longer .. also the end of Gfs almost has upper level low snow at 384 
Yeah, Canada lobe has trended worse these past runs but I wonder if the extra troughing over the GLs helped us out a bit ?, and actually looking at this it remained pretty much in the same area this run but was stronger (Canada pv lobe)
Old gfs is all over the place too.
Gefs actually is back to that impressive look, to me more members actually look suppressed, we’ll see with the mean on TT soon
Looks like snow mean actually went down, hmmm