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Pattern Marvelous March

Looks much colder and the low is in a perfect place for some areas at this time. Not a bad look.
gfs_asnow_seus_32.png
 
One thing that doesn’t help is this, we need a bombing low near Newfoundland to force high pressure/cold into the US, reason for the trend north with the Low is weaker high pressure influence over the SE, looks like the EPS B8F4A67B-020E-43D6-8648-447DF6A0ADCF.gif
 
But there’s also a problem if it’s to strong, it could shove and completely suppress everything, the SE would be dominated with high pressure
 
:oops:

Ending winter leading the digital snow contest isn't the worst thing in the world. We can enjoy the next 48 hours of model runs though.

trend-gfs-2019022518-f192.qpf_048h.conus.gif
 
In regards to the FV3. I still have hope that it will be a useful model. If you look at the verification scores that were posted earlier, there was a significant drop off during the government shutdown and just after that since the implementation date was moved to March. It seems that it has started to perform better recently, and as we have noticed, it's now running more efficiently than before. Maybe they are putting more effort into it now that the shutdown is over and the implementation date draws near again?
 
Storm should take a north jog on the FV3, tad weaker confluence and slightly weaker high pressure influence in the SE
76612AB7-F9B3-4EE3-9D09-3362A02B3DAC.gif
 
If the Euro and GFS keep this look for the next few days, I think NC is golden. Yeah, the FV3 scored a coup with the December storm, but it has been awful since then. The Euro and GFS caught on later, but they are hard to beat when they are showing almost the same outcome.
 
If the GEFS 18z taught me anything it’s that we are far from the solution that will play out. BUT it told me the solution looks to be wintry regardless. MANY of the gefs members had two to three separate systems hitting some light some moderate some heavy and they mixed in variation. What looks to be clear is we have a long way to go because this winter may be back loaded indeed.
 
Nick_boynton_ said:
If the GEFS 18z taught me anything it’s that we are far from the solution that will play out. BUT it told me the solution looks to be wintry regardless. MANY of the gefs members had two to three separate systems hitting some light some moderate some heavy and they mixed in variation. What looks to be clear is we have a long way to go because this winter may be back loaded indeed.
Click to expand...

Yeah the 18z gefs was pretty impressive E70CDB02-7ACF-44C7-B9D4-D4B74A9A5C50.jpeg
 
This may not mean much but FWIW 18z ICON has colder air a bit farther southeast at hour 120 then GFS at same time.

18z GFS 120
60663C4A-1646-417D-BD0D-046FBF0BE3DA.png
18z ICON 120
48189B22-F2D0-4FE7-8B4B-DE85084D80B0.png
 
ForsythSnow said:
20 for 20 for at least flakes. 8 for at least 2 inches. Weeding out the solutions and it looks like a system occurring is more likely than not at this point for moderate snowfall.
GEFSSE_prec_snens_240.png
Click to expand...

For far north GA. Few members to get I-20ers excited. Let’s see how things trends.


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Though it has the worst cold bias/quite often too far south storm tracks and the TT clowns are a joke, the 18Z FV3 together with the 12Z FV3 is keeping me mildly interested for wintry chances quite far SE because they keep the 2 surface lows very weak and far SE. Since we’re still 7-9 days out from these potential events, there’s still a whole bunch of uncertainty as evidenced by both run to run volatility and variations of different models within the same run. In the background, one should keep the cold bias/SE track bias in mind though that doesn’t necessarily mean it will play out that way this time.
 
ForsythSnow said:
20 for 20 for at least flakes. 8 for at least 2 inches. Weeding out the solutions and it looks like a system occurring is more likely than not at this point for moderate snowfall.
GEFSSE_prec_snens_240.png
Click to expand...
I really like the southern slider look on practically all of those runs. What do we have to do to get member 3 to verify?
 
When the north west trend ends that’s when we need to start looking at the areas going to be impacted and we should have a general idea of states involved ... need 00z to hold ground and keep some big dogs
 
Hey guys another update as we near the end of winter. I believe the transition pattern completed after our last heavy rain event over the weekend. Everything is still the same from me I believe it’s a largely snow pattern or rain. No ice totals of any significance I am ignoring the maps for now. I still believe the snow max favors the NC mountains (and VA) and folks from Atlanta GA to Greenville NC will miss out in this setup (Charlotte included). Several days to watch the moisture trends. A 6”+ snowfall is likely to occur in the mountains with a below 6” snowfall possible foothills to maybe Raleigh . I am most curious to see how this new storm/pattern trends dryer if any as it will tell how dry we become in 2019. That’s all for now.
 
Per Radiant in their forecast this morning for the period March 2-6, it is projected to be the 2nd coldest on a nationally natural gas heating weighted basis since 1960 and it is actually somewhat conservative since the 12Z EPS & GEFS are a decent but colder. What is the only colder March 2-6 than this forecast for 2019? You guessed it, 1960. 1978 is the current second coldest. 1962 is 5th while 1980 is 7th.
2019 is projected to be 4-5 colder than the norm for mid Jan!
The main reason it isn’t as cold as 1960? The south. But will the South trend colder? If there’s wintry wx, it likely would. We’ll see.
 
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F3 @ 156703CDF32-285A-437A-B43A-784D90AADAF2.png
 
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