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Pattern Marvelous March

So, does the Euro have anything after the 4th, or is it just coming in sooner with the storm than the GFS?
 
Pretty to look at....

ecmwf_tsnow_KU_nc_31.png
 
12z Euro has no freeze at ATL (not just airport) through 3/5.; It is hard to get excited about most of GA with that being the case. Obviously far N GA is a different story for now at least.
 
ATL finally gets a freeze on the 12Z Euro and a hard one at that 3/6 with a freeze down into S GA fwiw.
 
I could see a euro ish type system. I think as of now if your on our south of I-20 it doesn’t look promising. Yes I know it will change a bunch but it will take a lot for those areas to see anything.
Also look how winter has gone, across the country that is, areas that have had a winter with wintry precipitation, OH valley, MW, NE and the west (yes 1st storm for NC) have all seen multiple storms with it. I’m not trying to say it isn’t going to happen but I think I-40 in TN to NC has the best shot for sure. Maybe I-85 into SC and extreme NMS, and AL as well. Hopefully we can trend better where as more of the south has a shot.
 
metwannabe said:
Pretty to look at....

ecmwf_tsnow_KU_nc_31.png
Click to expand...
To get an idea of what the solution will look like when the forecast hour dips down to, say, 24, simply pivot the snowfall image to the right of the diagonal line (using the pivot point star shown) 45 degrees so that the image becomes parallel to the line. Save this post.

New.jpg
 
I just moved a bunch (well all) of the ever present great thread start debate comments to banter, anymore will be deleted. '

Also for this time, if/when a thread is started admins/mods will decide when and who will start said thread. End of debate and now back to on point discussion... thanks and as always thank you for flying with southernwx
 
GaWx said:
12z Euro has no freeze at ATL (not just airport) through 3/5.; It is hard to get excited about most of GA with that being the case. Obviously far N GA is a different story for now at least.
Click to expand...
There does not have to be a freeze to get snow or sleet
 
Consider this folks, we are only 144-150 hours out from the start of this possible event per the Euro. This is a very solid look if you live in NC, here's a model summary below. This may IMO be the best look we've seen all winter just 6 days out.
GFS - Nice snow in NC
Fv3 - Suppressed, fits in with it's bias and right where you'd want it at this stage
Euro - Solid hit for NC and plenty of ice in SC.
CMC - most amped model but still brings some wintry weather to portions of NC.
ICON - Solid ice event in NC.

Basically every model 6 days out agrees on some wintry weather in NC, most with a solid event for most of the state. Ensembles also give credibility to this. There is still time for things to change but overall the players are on the field and lining up for a touchdown imo.
 
snowlover91 said:
Euro run is pretty cold and look at this trend for 5 days out. Instead of warmer we are seeing a significantly colder look at day 5.
View attachment 16564
Click to expand...
Looks like it's definitely getting there. From how systems usually like to work out, I'd look at all the models and ensembles and see where they are at and find a middle ground. From what I see, if you are north of I-20, this could be your system. Some may disagree and say it's too far south but that's how it stands for me right now. I think we have a good chance down here. I can't see this being much more than an overrunning event possibly becoming a Miller A at the end because of the way the energy at 500mb is set up.
 
snowlover91 said:
Consider this folks, we are only 144-150 hours out from the start of this possible event per the Euro. This is a very solid look if you live in NC, here's a model summary below. This may IMO be the best look we've seen all winter just 6 days out.
GFS - Nice snow in NC
Fv3 - Suppressed, fits in with it's bias and right where you'd want it at this stage
Euro - Solid hit for NC and plenty of ice in SC.
CMC - most amped model but still brings some wintry weather to portions of NC.
ICON - Solid ice event in NC.

Basically every model 6 days out agrees on some wintry weather in NC, most with a solid event for most of the state. Ensembles also give credibility to this. There is still time for things to change but overall the players are on the field and lining up for a touchdown imo.
Click to expand...

Been saying this for the past couple of days, but this is the best we have seen all the models at the same time since the December storm. It's really coming together like that one did. And having the Euro with a big hit for NC is a huge plus for us.
 
I'll add this also. Most of the fantasty "threats" we've seen showing up all winter had little consistency and support across the global models. It was usually a random Fv3, GFS or Euro run showing something in the day 8+ range that by the time we were inside 6-7 days disappeared completely. This system is much different. We've had a clear signal on the ensembles and OP runs of every major global model of something of interest in this period, March 3-6th. Now we are 6-7 days from the start of this system and instead of models warming up or shifting away they are coming into better agreement of a threat. When you have this type of consistency and agreement from all globals 6-7 days out it's a very good sign and something we haven't seen since December.
 
snowlover91 said:
I'll add this also. Most of the fantasty "threats" we've seen showing up all winter had little consistency and support across the global models. It was usually a random Fv3, GFS or Euro run showing something in the day 8+ range that by the time we were inside 6-7 days disappeared completely. This system is much different. We've had a clear signal on the ensembles and OP runs of every major global model of something of interest in this period, March 3-6th. Now we are 6-7 days from the start of this system and instead of models warming up or shifting away they are coming into better agreement of a threat. When you have this type of consistency and agreement from all globals 6-7 days out it's a very good sign and something we haven't seen since December.
Click to expand...

Great minds think alike. :D
 
snowlover91 said:
I'll add this also. Most of the fantasty "threats" we've seen showing up all winter had little consistency and support across the global models. It was usually a random Fv3, GFS or Euro run showing something in the day 8+ range that by the time we were inside 6-7 days disappeared completely. This system is much different. We've had a clear signal on the ensembles and OP runs of every major global model of something of interest in this period, March 3-6th. Now we are 6-7 days from the start of this system and instead of models warming up or shifting away they are coming into better agreement of a threat. When you have this type of consistency and agreement from all globals 6-7 days out it's a very good sign and something we haven't seen since December.
Click to expand...

Thanks to Kylo inadvertently forcing me to do this composite of about 15 large winter storms east of the mtns in NC since 1959-60, it was pretty obvious to me yesterday a winter storm had some legitimacy in this timeframe (esp March 3-4) if we held this look at 500mb over North America a few more days.

Our pattern is virtually right on the $$ w/ the composite.

compday.plp4W9AGDx.gif

ecmwf_z500a_namer_7.png
 
ForsythSnow said:
Looks like it's definitely getting there. From how systems usually like to work out, I'd look at all the models and ensembles and see where they are at and find a middle ground. From what I see, if you are north of I-20, this could be your system. Some may disagree and say it's too far south but that's how it stands for me right now. I think we have a good chance down here. I can't see this being much more than an overrunning event possibly becoming a Miller A at the end because of the way the energy at 500mb is set up.
Click to expand...

It's possible this trends north as we get closer to verification but that isn't a given. Depending on how the cold press sets up this could also still be suppressed. It's definitely a solid look at this stage in the game, probably about the best look we could hope for at this stage. The Euro and GFS both showing solid winter weather threats and the UK setting up for one as well are encouraging signs to me since they are the top 3 models right now. Interestingly the Fv3 being suppressed fits perfectly with the bias it has to be too cold and lower 5h values than reality at day 5+. Once it adjusts north it will likely have a track similar to the Euro and GFS.
 
Meteorologist1999 said:
What does that means for us?
Click to expand...

Thats just a spagetti chart of the streams... a lot of options on the table, imo. Some massive, some little, some none for this area. Timing..

The way the Euro pulls this thing NW into the NE on the 12z.. gives me a pause.. might start to see something a bit crazy on modeling sooner if it's on the right idea and just late.
 
It's crazy that gfs/Fv3 has wintry much further south and Euro north. I think as of now places in central Bama still looks good. I'm going with a middle sulotion. Euro could trend south as well in future runs
 
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