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Misc 2019 Banter & Friendly Conservation

When the high res and global models all fail us and the SREF is unreliable we just gotta nowcast it, gotta watch for all those patches of blue sky that appear when the air finally becomes cold enough for snow!
Maybe that's what's showing up as blue on the model precip maps...rain turning to blue sky.
 
It would be nice just once to have cold front snow. We see it modeled 3-4 times a season.
 
The only kind of meltdown that's more fun to watch is when smug, arrogant mid-Atlantic weenies watch w/ horror as a massive storm is suppressed into oblivion and crushes us in the SE US.

Another reason I love the winter of 1972-73 so much, the shaft the I-95 corridor got that winter was nothing short of comical while everyone here got at least 1 paste bomb! Virtually no snow fell in areas like NYC, Philadelphia, Baltimore, & DC!

January 8 1973 US Snowcover.png

Feb 9-11 1973 Snowstorm NWS Wilmington.png
 
Oh my goodness they are treating the roads around here....... the car wash and body shop lobbyist have gotten to NCDOT oh vey
 
Oh my goodness they are treating the roads around here....... the car wash and body shop lobbyist have gotten to NCDOT oh vey
They have too much stock. They need to move that inventory. Gotta strike while the iron's hot.
 
Can't beat'em, join'em....

Roof collapsing mega death snow band incoming, power out for days.... stock up now, clear the shelves, historic, epic, a winter to remember (how am I doing so far?)
namconus_ref_frzn_seus_31.png
 
so far, 28.5. Marathon plus run back to the car. Many moons ago. These days, 10ish on the weekends.
Awesome! I did a half once. Ran like 5, then walked for a while. Ran 4, then walked for a while, etc. Usually do 2-3 5 or 6 days a week.
 
Can't beat'em, join'em....

Roof collapsing mega death snow band incoming, power out for days.... stock up now, clear the shelves, historic, epic, a winter to remember (how am I doing so far?)
namconus_ref_frzn_seus_31.png
Heavy blue sky being shown over your house there!
 
I have a question about the flizzard tomorrow, but I wanted to ask in this thread to keep that one uncluttered.

Which models are best for us to watch here in the short term? HRRR? SREF plumes?
 
so far, 28.5. Marathon plus run back to the car. Many moons ago. These days, 10ish on the weekends.
Although my first ever marathon was in Maine, the house we stayed in was up a very steep hill half a mile from the finish line and my room was on the 3rd floor, lesson learned...
 
Headed to Maggie valley for the night I think. Hopefully that be a good spot to see some snow for my kids.


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I have a question about the flizzard tomorrow, but I wanted to ask in this thread to keep that one uncluttered.

Which models are best for us to watch here in the short term? HRRR? SREF plumes?

They way the models(short and long) are still confused its best to just see whats currently going on north and west of you. Now Casting.
 
Big cut-off ULL (not much unlike Feb 2004) smashed the SW piedmont, Charlotte, & GSP. Raleigh picked up snow right at the tail end of Feb into the first day or so of March.
View attachment 14110
View attachment 14109

OMG...how bad would that suck for GSP to CLT to get a foot and Raleigh get's 1". It's like Jan 2011 and Feb 2014 all over again. Atleast in 2004 we got 3-4".

And it looks like RainCold got shafted in 1969 too.
 
I have a question about the flizzard tomorrow, but I wanted to ask in this thread to keep that one uncluttered.

Which models are best for us to watch here in the short term? HRRR? SREF plumes?
HRRRrrrr in the very short term. 3k NAM is usually pretty good in the short range too. I hardly ever look at the SREFs for anything. They might be somewhat useful after the event is mostly done, but that's about it.
 
Every time, people ignore warning shots. The Euro fired one a day or two ago. :(
It goes back to the old rule of thumb, find the model that shows the least amount of snow and then divide it in half. It will be right many more times than wrong.
 
OMG...how bad would that suck for GSP to CLT to get a foot and Raleigh get's 1". It's like Jan 2011 and Feb 2014 all over again. Atleast in 2004 we got 3-4".

It's definitely happened with some modest frequency here & there throughout the historical record where we get storms that plaster the SW piedmont/Charlotte and leave others high & dry. You think you're pissed off now? Look at what happened in 1941-42.

These are the only 2 legitimate storms in the entire winter around here and Raleigh got shafted epically. Am I giving u nightmares yet lol.
February 24-25 1942 NC Snowmap.png

March 2-3 1942 NC Snowmap.png
 
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