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Pattern October Oscitance

I hate to say it folks. We probably won’t get much of a fall this year. Once the pattern flips I figure we will go cold and wet in first part of November and lasting in December.

I hope it doesn’t happpen this way.
 
The ECMWF is sniffing out a TC outbreak in the Pacific next week. The wave packet from Trami in the WP could help take the edge of the SE ridge during the 2nd week of October but there are a ton of ways to either screw that up &/or amplify a trough east of the Rockies even more w/ TCs trying to recurve & deposit heat & momentum into the Pacific Jet in every sector of the Pacific. Time to breakout the dartboard.

ecmwf_z500_mslp_npac_9.png
 
I hate to say it folks. We probably won’t get much of a fall this year. Once the pattern flips I figure we will go cold and wet in first part of November and lasting in December.

I hope it doesn’t happpen this way.
Well at least you're not in Minnesota. Fall is over there and they are already in winter. Unless 50's for highs is considered fall there.
 
I’ve got 73 on the car thermometer under full cloud cover for the 2nd day in a row. It’s actually pretty chilly. AC is off
 
I only reached 85 yesterday because of extended cloud cover (which I think lasted all day). Today seems like it's going to try to repeat yesterday. Unfortunate that it's come to this though to keep from having "July, only in fall".

I hope that we don't have Octly, the sequel to Juber for half of October.
 
At least by then “ heat “ won’t be 90s

I can handle 60s and 70s in jan - feb while we watch Boston get crushed with feet of snow


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Really!?! That sounds even more miserable than a 100° day in August.


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The wedge has been nice past few days and looks to really keep summer out of here/ autumn like this weekend thankfully. But like everyone else I'm ready for highs in the 60s lows around 40 with low dps and deep blue skies.
 
Really!?! That sounds even more miserable than a 100° day in August.
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I take it over the 34 degrees and cold rain with the high light bill!! Lol. I don’t mind payin the high light bill as long as we get some type of winter event.
 
I often wonder how models handle situations like these because I would assume they are built with algorithms from things that have happened in the past. We are in uncharted waters it seems.
 
Just a reminder of last Christmas. Models showed a relentless SER through the holidays only to have it fall apart and I don’t think I need to tell you how cold it was after that. The ridge will go away
Bizarro world in here.... who is this?

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What can break this ridge?
BammerHammer.jpg
 
D10 on the Euro maybe a light at the end of the tunnel........ but it seems just like 10 days ago there was light at the end of the tunnel. Drops head, keeps kicking can

It's like watching water boil.
 
D10 on the Euro maybe a light at the end of the tunnel........ but it seems just like 10 days ago there was light at the end of the tunnel. Drops head, keeps kicking can

ecmwf_z500_mslp_namer_11.png
I'll be in vegas the 5th-8th so expect record highs in the SW and lows in the SE. The ridge will be back 10/9

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