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Pattern July Fries

Yeah looks like I may be on the western fringes of that slug of moisture, downeast getting hammered.
Rain Cold said:
I know the radar presentation is going to change as we go through the day, but the NWS needs to change the Flood Watch to a Dry Slot Watch for The middle zones!
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Weather Bug app has a 50% or greater chance of rain in my foreacast until next Thursday.
 
8F88A05C-A38D-44CE-8F9A-BB26FE529B05.png OMG! The big wet is wetter than ever today!
 
Latest here from WRAL weather.

We haven't seen widespread heavy rain so far today. Skies are beginning to clear in spots though and where skies clear we'll have a better chance of storms developing. Some of those storms may produce some heavy rain.

So, we can't get widespread heavy rains like the models showed this week, and now we need clear skies to get a chance for heavy rain.
 
Rain Cold said:
I know the radar presentation is going to change as we go through the day, but the NWS needs to change the Flood Watch to a Dry Slot Watch for The middle zones!
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So even I'm too far west for that nice slug of moisture....
 
Atleast after a slight dry spell over the weekend, it’s looking like the big wet part duh, is happening next week! And will be with a gulf influx, so that should produce better for my area and GA peeps!
 
Rain Cold said:
It seems quite possible to me that we might not get a drop of rain today.
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I would agree with this and maybe it's just me but sure seems the models have backed down on those insane amounts. Not complaining like I said I've picked up 1.5 and some much more but a good number have received much less.....as of now anyway a far cry from what the models were showing.
 
metwannabe said:
I would agree with this and maybe it's just me but sure seems the models have backed down on those insane amounts. Not complaining like I said I've picked up 1.5 and some much more but a good number have received much less.....as of now anyway a far cry from what the models were showing.
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Yeah, they dropped off bigly from what they were showing a couple of days ago for their totals for yesterday and today.
 
metwannabe said:
I would agree with this and maybe it's just me but sure seems the models have backed down on those insane amounts. Not complaining like I said I've picked up 1.5 and some much more but a good number have received much less.....as of now anyway a far cry from what the models were showing.
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Rain Cold said:
Yeah, they dropped off bigly from what they were showing a couple of days ago for their totals for yesterday and today.
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Tarheel1 said:
A win for Brick!:weenie:
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Rain Cold said:
Don't encourage him!
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I am just going by what I have seen from living in NC for all of my 43 years. You just don't get widespread rain events here like the models were showing for the whole state in summer. Unless we get a tropical storm or hurricane in the summer, our rain comes from storms that are very scattered or isolated in nature. Maybe you get a good storm and get heavy rain. But 90% of the state could get nothing.
 
Tarheel1 said:
Atleast after a slight dry spell over the weekend, it’s looking like the big wet part duh, is happening next week! And will be with a gulf influx, so that should produce better for my area and GA peeps!
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I thought we were supposed to have a Gulf influx this week.
 
Remember this the next time the models show a widespread heavy snow event for NC.

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Brick Tamland said:
I am just going by what I have seen from living in NC for all of my 43 years. You just don't get widespread rain events here like the models were showing for the whole state in summer. Unless we get a tropical storm or hurricane in the summer, our rain comes from storms that are very scattered or isolated in nature. Maybe you get a good storm and get heavy rain. But 90% of the state could get nothing.
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I will have to agree with you on this, again I'm not complaining, but I've seen my fair share of FFW with 80-90% rain chances over the years fail miserably.... don't buy it unless a tropical system is moving in. Then again I also understand the reason the NWS has to issue the Watch, flooding has been an issue, while isolated no one knows exactly it will occur so you have to make everyone aware.
 
great way to end the month:
gfs-ens_T2m_us_16.png
 
Here is the explanation I got from WRAL met Aimee Wilmoth on why the rain has been a bust here.

We were sandwiched b/w 2 areas of higher mid-level moisture. For some reason, central NC was cut-off from the moisture in the mid levels. We certainly had plenty of moisture down at the surface!
 
Kylo said:
Hard to believe we are on day 3 of what was supposed to be a very wet period and have no rain to show for it. Still really nice outside though.
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I hate to say it, but Brick called it. As soon as they issued the Flash Flood Watch, the rain stopped. Funny how that happenes.
 
Had a flash flood watch yesterday and didn't get any rain. No flash flood watch today and it is absolutely pouring down at my office right now.
 
I'm in Raleigh this morning and I must not be too far from you, it is pounding rain. Parking lot at this location starting to flood and it's a small storm
Brick Tamland said:
Had a flash flood watch yesterday and didn't get any rain. No flash flood watch today and it is absolutely pouring down at my office right now.
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metwannabe said:
I'm in Raleigh this morning and I must not be too far from you, it is pounding rain. Parking lot at this location starting to flood and it's a small storm

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How’s Brick!??:D
On a serious, weather related note, how’s the big wet, part duh next week looking?
 
SD said:
Mowed the yard yesterday hope it rains today

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We're getting way more rain today with no FFW than the last 48 hours when we were under one. Forecasting rain must be really, really hard.
 
Rain Cold said:
We're getting way more rain today with no FFW than the last 48 hours when we were under one. Forecasting rain must be really, really hard.
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Yeah kinda sucks for RAH, issue with FFW then thebest convergence is west and moisture is east. Then you lift the FFW and the convergence axis moves east and moisture transport is better.
 
SD said:
Mowed the yard yesterday hope it rains today

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Wash the car today, that should guarantee a good downpour! Storms firing to my NW, today was supposed to start the big dry! I havnt had rain since Sat night!
 
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