The GFS way out there at that range is pretty close to being worthless as far as TC predictions are concerned, even when showing something similar for several days and especially considering it is showing a hurricane hit on LA on May 23.
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Pattern May Flowers
- Thread starter RBR71
- Start date
The GFS way out there at that range is pretty close to being worthless as far as TC predictions are concerned, even when showing something similar for several days and especially considering it is showing a hurricane hit on LA on May 23.
pcbjr
Member
... but can you imagine if it were a snow storm in January ... KABOOM ... LOL ...
On the bright side moisture increases late in the week should be some sweet low status mornings breaking up into muggy hot afternoons.
I'm really pulling for that weakness that gets left over the gulf this weekend and meanders over the SE next week. Keep that in play for a few days and we are at normal for rain
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Nice hailers in the apps today
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Brent
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I'm already over the heat
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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When you think your headed towards drought, but then this surprise wakes you up!! Blessed!
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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“Woke last night to the sound of thunder,
How far off , I sat and wondered,
Started humming a song from 1962;
Ain’t it funny how the night moves!?”
How far off , I sat and wondered,
Started humming a song from 1962;
Ain’t it funny how the night moves!?”
61, with a 53 dew... hey it's not quite summer yet.. ahhh,feels so good outside. Good thing I'm a night owl. We'll be desperate for this kind of weather 4 months from now.
I had a nice walk with the dog too this evening... I'm just becoming a wimp when it comes to heat these days. Getting older has its down points. And my dog is 11 years old and was a little sluggish today I noticed. More than usual. The old girl....
accu35
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I'm already over this warm dry air, with 90s on the way, it's like holding my breath for another inpatient "summer cool day". Ready for this summer to end, watching my late night models with my winter weather friends. PEACE!!!
MichaelJ
Member
LOL, we have not yet begun to sweat.
GeorgiaGirl
Member
Welp, I'm going to Florida at the perfect time apparently (this forecast is for here).
Copied from the NWS:
Saturday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 95.
Saturday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 65.
Sunday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 93.
Sunday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 66.
Copied from the NWS:
Saturday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 95.
Saturday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 65.
Sunday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 93.
Sunday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 66.
Tarheel1
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Apparently, the heatwave coming this weekend, now has some staying power! Trough West/ Death Ridge East! 10 plus days atleast!
Southeast Ridge ughh
Starting to concern me as well. What once looked short term is now looking like it doesn't want to leave. Like relatives that ask to stay for a "few days" then you can't get them out. Sorry, that's another story. But the watering of the lawn has begun and my B'ham Water Works bill proves it. Today makes 12 in a row with no rain in my area.
Looks like we may take a run at no measurable rainfall this month.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Way too early to say that. All it takes is a pop good shower or a tropical low and we would have some.
dsaur
Member
Me too!! And I'm over the drought already too. It is bone dry around here. I was cutting grass, and blowing up clouds of dust. No moisture to hold it to the ground. This is not looking good, after such a nice cool, wet April. T
I actually like the pattern going forward. Bermuda ridge at the surface means at least isolated daily chances starting this weekend. Energetic flow aloft means chances of organized storms some days. Also will probably get a stalled front at some point to really enhance rain chances.
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BHS1975
Member
Euro not quite as hot.
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The first half of March is somewhat dry based on climatology. I really hope that we can turn it around for the second half. The gfs and Canadian ensembles are big on increasing pwats this weekend and subsequently increasing precip totals in the day 5-15 period. I'll gladly trade and take highs in the mid 80s if that means rain chances go up.
My water bill is going to be huge as I replace this wonderful contractor mix that was put in my backyard that has already died with bermuda grass
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Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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Bermuda is very hard to start from seed. It loves heat, but sod is the best bet! It loves heat, but only after being established for atleast a season. Just switching from 40s to blast furnace in about 2 weeks time, is enough to confuse all flora and fauna, but throw a 10-15 day dry stretch, and it’s just ugly!
accu35
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Lol, I hear ya and your right. Just having some fun with this
cd2play
Member
I've been here all night, I've been here all day
pcbjr
Member
Oh really ...
At least it's way past truncation ...
At least it's way past truncation ...
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Well there's always this crazy output from the FV3.
pcbjr
Member
"Crazy" being the operative word (I hope) ... at least it's way out there past truncation ... (always looking for a positive ...Well there's always this crazy output from the FV3.
)
MichaelJ
Member
If the temps were only a measly 60 degrees colder!!!
Does the FV3 truncate?"Crazy" being the operative word (I hope) ... at least it's way out there past truncation ... (always looking for a positive ...
pcbjr
Member
Very good question and I suppose I shouldn't assume; it just seems hard to believe any model would have full data and resolution that far out; but if I'm incorrect, it isn't the 1st time ...
... and surely won't be the last ...
Very good question and I suppose I shouldn't assume; it just seems hard to believe any model would have full data and resolution that far out; but if I'm incorrect, it isn't the 1st time ...
No worries man. I don’t know either. Hopefully, somebody will easily be able to answer.
pcbjr
Member
No worries at all; went to the "official" website and though there is mention of "truncation" there is nothing definitive.
Hopefully Larry or Webb or someone of that caliber has an answer and can shed light!
I'm confused as this is what I found at the FV3 website:
"Resolution: C192 (~50km), C384 (~25km), C768 (~13km)"
Any comments?
What does C mean?
I just found this elsewhere:
"A cN grid is one with N grid cells across a cubed-sphere face."
So, C apparently means "cubed-sphere face".
pcbjr
Member
Y'all are a lot smarter than I, no doubt.
I'm thinking though, that "resolution" at 384 is about one-half of that at 192; or is that too simple?
I don't know that it is that simple. There may not be any "truncation" as you refer to it (resolution change at a certain forecast time) in the FV3 runs as I haven't found anything clearing stating a lower resolution starting at a specific forecast point. I bet @Webberweather53 knows the answer. Webb or anyone else, please help if you can. TIA
pcbjr
Member
FWIW, I confessed ignorance and I stand by it ... LOL