Great post, but its hard to get that moisture that far north with strong cold front suppressing it south. Or will the cold relax and trend north/ NW but still be cold enough to support " Frozen".From WxSouth on Facebook.
The Plot thickens. The European Model (and now GFS too) continue to show a strong piece of energy dropping in behind the initial rainfall in the Southeast Thursday night. At the same time this is going on, a new piece of the Polar Vortex is plunging due south through Wisconsin Friday . Its a strange setup, and a testament to the new strong Ultra-Ridge in the Western Part of North America. If that ridge builds so tall, the tables turn quickly for the Eastern States, with a Snowstorm coming up the East Coast. Right now though, this is so complicated and has timing issues of the various pieces, the models can hardly resolve it this far out.
But I'd keep informed of the weather along the East Coast, from Georgia up the East Coast for Thursday night and Friday. I have much more breakdown on the temperature profiles, moisture transport, and question how far west to pull the moisture in the Cold air at wxsouth.com.
The chances are growing though for the first snow flakes of the season for part of NC, Virginia and further north....followed by a slug of intense cold air (which has it's own snow seperately in TN, KY, WV) on Friday night and Saturday. Trends on models will mean everything from this point on, as anything is possible, from full phasing, to a nudge eastward, but the map below shows the area I'm watching.
Seems the past few years the frozen stuff almost always trends NW.
Yeah, your right. I hope this trend NW for most of us.
Could we see snow in Columbia,SC if the NW TREND Continues??
Anywhere in the Southeast and Mid Atlantic should stay tuned to future forecasts. Wayyy to early to pinpoint exact areas, especially with models suppressing the system.
Me too!!.
POSSIBLY, too early to say specifics.
And there is the rub, always in the south. So rarely do we get a reasonable system, it's always if, if, if down here. Timing is what it takes. I like to be sure there is moisture in place, others want the cold. I figure I'm 70 and I've never seen a winter when it didn't get cold enough to snow, but most winters it didn't because it didn't rain, lol. It takes both, but over the top, it is timing in the south. If the cold air push is not overpowering the moisture push, if the moisture push isn't overpowering the cold, if the winds are right, if the moon isn't a bowl crescent that catches the rain....if either is even on the map at the same time, lol. It's all about timing the pieces into a harmonious winter confection, and not the usual heartbreak
In the south, timing is designed to break your will, make you weep, and tear out your hair on the way to the cliff. But it keeps you coming back for more torture by giving you the occasional moment of ecstasy....like 100 years ago when Atl got over 2 inches of ip/snow It's Lucy 99, and Charlie Brown 0. Climo says no, so I usually start from there....at least until CR blew my mind by defying climo and making it his 'itch, with his Xmas storm....and Larry did the same for Sav. I even got an inch out of that XMas one, lol. T
That'll feel like an Atlanta winter night, lol. 38 and pouring rain. Buckhead was famous for that, lol. Damn dp! T
