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Wintry Winter Discussion 2023/24

Ollie Williams said:
The JMA Seasonal has a product to forecast daily for the next few months. Not a bad look if you ask me. There's probably little accuracy, but I'll post it here.
November:



December:



January:

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Interesting…. That does follow along fairly closely with 2009-2010 which is one of the big analogs for this year.
 
Super El Nino is still the rumor mill / hype I'm hearing.

09-10 was a perfect placed / location El Niño. Don't believe it was considered what we term a super el Niño year. I could be wrong. I do know it was positioned just right out there in the pacific to where we where not just firehosed with pacific origin air. Always the fear when you get high end el Niño .
 
NCSNOW said:
Super El Nino is still the rumor mill / hype I'm hearing.

09-10 was a perfect placed / location El Niño. Don't believe it was considered what we term a super el Niño year. I could be wrong. I do know it was positioned just right out there in the pacific to where we where not just firehosed with pacific origin air. Always the fear when you get high end el Niño .
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The reason those years were amazing was because of the NAO. We haven't had solid NAO support since then. I remember going out in summer with my jacket because of the deep trough.

month.nao.png
 
Ollie Williams said:
The CANSIP Seasonal is coming in hot! Fairly canonical El Nino pattern after New Year's.View attachment 135960
View attachment 135959View attachment 135961
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Look at that warmer than avg air in Canada. That would imply quite a bit of blocking near the arctic and bouts of arctic air being sent down south into the CONUS in the new year. Large parts of the South are well overdue for a memorable snow event...maybe this will be the winter....can't be worse than last winter which was among the worst of the last 50 years. I'm just looking forward to a regime change that El Nino will provide after three years of La Nina.
 
Well we have shown to actually get a -NAO these past couple of winters so hopefully that trend continues. Looks like we could finally have some Pacific support with an active subtropical jet. But as always it almost 100% comes down to one thing and one thing only and that's timing.
 
Curious if Gulf and Atlantic water temps recede back to normal as we approach winter. Wonder if that could be a player in any Miller A nor’easter types we see
 
Avalanche said:
Curious if Gulf and Atlantic water temps recede back to normal as we approach winter. Wonder if that could be a player in any Miller A nor’easter types we see
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I have a feeling that these higher than average SSTs could really be a big player in what types of storms we see. Stronger warm nose in storms that would lead to mixing issues. I know this has been said for a few years now, but the southern NC Piedmont and eastern SC upstate is overdue, way overdue, for a major ice storm.
 
Chazwin said:
I have a feeling that these higher than average SSTs could really be a big player in what types of storms we see. Stronger warm nose in storms that would lead to mixing issues. I know this has been said for a few years now, but the southern NC Piedmont and eastern SC upstate is overdue, way overdue, for a major ice storm.
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The Sandhills of NC use to get nailed by ice storms. Now it’s year ‘round golf :)
 
The good news going into this winter is that it literally can’t get any worse than the last one. 0” and scorching temperatures nearly throughout seems like the worst we can possibly do, right? Right? ?
 
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