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Wintry Winter Discussion 2023/24

I know it’s my own back yard but we still need some rain, and the radar is laughable. The areas that need it are seeing the squall line break up, the areas that don’t need it are getting what’s left of the squall. Pshttt.
 
One of these years we are going to get lucky and see all of this globular warming anomalous moisture in the gulf run into an air mass that is cold enough for a huge winter storm south of the favored Asheville to Greensboro corridor (i.e. Dallas, Jackson, Birmingham, Chattanooga, ATL, Upstate, CLT, Raleigh). It’s going to happen, and with a healthy El Niño, this is as good a shot as any
 
cyclogent said:
Analogs for this upcoming winter aren't too shabby.
The last 3 occurrences of a strong Nino following a multi-year Nina were 1957-58, 1982-83, and 2009-10.
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Those are some good years for the southeast and 2009-10 is fairly recent. I still think we end up with a slightly above average winter temperature wise, but the good news is that with the El Niño, we will see a fairly active STJ…. this does help to keep the SER muted a bit and you got a better chance of moisture meeting up with cold shots. I am going to do something this year that I’ve done the last couple years and start watching how quickly things cool in NW Canada and the north slope of Alaska. It has really seemed the last few years that we get better opportunities at winter weather in the southeast when those spots are cooling down and not holding onto mild Pacific air.
 
I think another factor that could be a big player is all the fires Canada had this year!
 
Landscape changes, air quality and the entrapment of cold air layer from escaping into space. When we have a volcanic eruptions it's usually followed by colder conditions. Fires provide a similar blanket in the atmosphere.
 
We manage to get a lot of moisture (at least in the mountains and back this way) even during La Ninas when it's supposed to be drier. I can imagine what is going to come this winter with a very active subtropical jet. Hopefully we can get the cold to meet and cooperate this year.
 
iGRXY said:
We manage to get a lot of moisture (at least in the mountains and back this way) even during La Ninas when it's supposed to be drier. I can imagine what is going to come this winter with a very active subtropical jet. Hopefully we can get the cold to meet and cooperate this year.
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For sure. I'll take my chances with any El Nino around these parts as opposed to another La Nina. Thank goodness La Nina is history. Things need to be shook up compared to another La Nina. Hoping for a weak to moderate El Nino over a super but any El Nino is good with me this coming winter over Nina.
 
gfs_asnow_nwus_65.png


Its coming........
 
Was the latest I could see

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