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Wintry Winter 2018-19 Discussion

Rain Cold said:
If we get plenty of blocking, there will be more than one decent snow here. That’s going to be the key this winter. And right now, I’m not all that unhappy with what I’m seeing in that area. But we have a long way to go.
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The blocking will disappear in December and return in April, just like the last 8-9 winters or so!:(
 
I see no reason to be negative about this so far out, the signs so far are pretty in our favor. On another note, does anyone know the relationship QBO has with El Nino? We might be transitioning to a positive QBO during the winter months and I wanna know how it might affect conditions.
 
SimeonNC said:
I see no reason to be negative about this so far out, the signs so far are pretty in our favor. On another note, does anyone know the relationship QBO has with El Nino? We might be transitioning to a positive QBO during the winter months and I wanna know how it might affect conditions.
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West or +QBO is associated with a +PNA and east coast trough, with cold temps east. El Niños with a +QBO would feature more snow events in the SE.


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Euro seasonal fwiw. Dec-Feb rockin’

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Jon said:
West or +QBO is associated with a +PNA and east coast trough, with cold temps east. El Niños with a +QBO would feature more snow events in the SE.


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Okay so an inverse of the -QBO/Cool ENSO combination, well unless the QBO starts going positive really quickly, we might not see any effects of a positive QBO until either the tail end or after winter is over.
 
By the way, I recommend all of you to check out a YouTube channel called GavsWeatherVids, he mainly focuses on the UK and Europe but every Sunday he does these updates on conditions such as SST, Solar, etc. and starting in September he will be doing weekly updates on the factors that affect our winter. He's one of the best if not the best of these YouTube meteorologists.
 
SimeonNC said:
Okay so an inverse of the -QBO/Cool ENSO combination, well unless the QBO starts going positive really quickly, we might not see any effects of a positive QBO until either the tail end or after winter is over.
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I actually don’t see the QBO going positive. Currently very negative and east based...usually takes over a year to reverse so we likely won’t get a +QBO until next winter.


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Jon said:
I actually don’t see the QBO going positive. Currently very negative and east based...usually takes over a year to reverse so we likely won’t get a +QBO until next winter.


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Oh okay, I was going off an analog I saw in a video where a similarly negative QBO that was around this time period ended up going positive early in the next year. I think it was 2005-6.
 
SimeonNC said:
Oh okay, I was going off an analog I saw in a video where a similarly negative QBO that was around this time period ended up going positive early in the next year. I think it was 2005-6.
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Actually my bad we’ve been in a -QBO for about a year so we’re due to head positive soon. So that’s right. 05-06 was already positive by this time though, and we’re still -20s.

A good analog of the reversal might be 09-10 (strong El Niño) or 91-92 (strong El Niño), or better yet 86-87 (moderate El Niño which is likely). Might be better analogs but I looked quick for recent history with similar May QBO and base states.


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So are we going to see people hype the new JAMSTEC? My guess is no...

Remember this is the one from last month..
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Lesson here is lead times matter. 4-5 months out is no good. The CFSv2 usually struggles a month out and doesn’t get a hint until the last week of a monthly prediction. Our models are simply not good yet for seasonal forecasts.


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Jon said:
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So are we going to see people hype the new JAMSTEC? My guess is no...

Remember this is the one from last month..
41b07e68b5abb55aebbfe2e26cbe2c18.gif


Lesson here is lead times matter. 4-5 months out is no good. The CFSv2 usually struggles a month out and doesn’t get a hint until the last week of a monthly prediction. Our models are simply not good yet for seasonal forecasts.


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Why trust models this far out when they can’t even get Day 7 right...


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