Jessy89
Member
The novelty event the CMC is showing for next weekend is interesting one to watch. How is it the models are so drastically different from one another. One shows 50s and sunshine the other shows 30s and winter mix
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Wintry Winter 2018-19 Discussion
- Thread starter Snowfan
- Start date
Sarcasm and cynicism are two of the main pillars of the SE winter weather warrior. Keeps you grounded.
We're still punting November. Jim Rome wasn't built in a day. Give it time!
Kylo
Member
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
It's annoying.
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Prime example.
It's fine. Some people probably think a bunch of gif replies every day are annoying, but they're fine too.
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Nah, that's funny.
packfan98
Moderator
I'll leave my personal thoughts about it to myself. Please take this discussion to the banter thread, or put the kibosh on it.
snowlover91
Member
The CMC is handling the upper level energy differently than the GFS and has the HP in a fairly good position to keep enough cold locked in for some wintry weather.
Jessy89
Member
The pattern we seem to be getting into. Is one where we may only have a day or two notice before any winter storm. Correct me if I’m wrong but it looks like a pattern that’s hard for the models to handle.
snowlover91
Member
I'd say the signals for a storm will be there 4-5 days out and from there it will all depend on how all the key pieces unfold. Models rarely get our winter storms modeled correctly outside of 3 days anyways, shoot even 24-48 hours out there can be big disagreements on the rain/snow lines. What I would look for is the overall pattern changes we see right now and with time we should see models come around to some threats. We need more of a cold push but not too much that suppresses everything to our south. Getting the right balance is why storms here in the southeast are so tricky most years.
NWMSGuy
Member
Maybe by the later part of the weekend we will start to see a Winter storm developing on the Models for the end of Nov/Early December we can start watching. Nothing but optimism! :weenie:
NCSNOW
Member
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Thats the time to be looking at. Itll come and start showing up here soon. May have another 33 degree rainstorm or two to get through, but climo starts swinging in our favor as month ends. Folks have to remember what day it is on the calendar. Nice to see people coming down the slopes of Sugar mountain already and its a week before Turkey day
Kylo
Member
EPS heard our complaints. Coming up colder and blocktastic.
snowlover91
Member
Thanks for posting those Kylo, that's a nice look and 300 hours out isn't too bad. Some really nice blocking signals showing up too.
Cold rain to backend flurries. We’ve done worse I guess
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The tail end of cold patterns often (but definitely not always) end w/ an overrunning/ice storm in general over the eastern US. If we play everything right I could see another threat materializing late next week as this ULL slides to our south even though it's virtually a massive long shot at best atm. Even when a cold pattern becomes established over us there's usually a little bit of a lag in many cases before we score a big dog because it takes a few storms to rebuild the snowpack to our north to really help "lock in" the cold air that reaches us. Considering this and climatology, I'd personally look for a threat in early December more than I would the tail end of November but either seems like a potentially legitimate timeframe for a storm to come knocking
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