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Wintry Winter 2018-19 Discussion

GaWx said:
Taking a bubble bath with JB and DeeeeTeeee even if it means a 200 year snow in SAV? Nah, I think I’ll pass lol. I love rare southern snow but I don’t love it that much!
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How about if it meant that type of winter AND a Georgia National title AND a Atlanta Falcons SB win? LOL
 
Webberweather53 said:
To the surprise of absolutely no one, JB is going all in on a December 1963 repeat, by far & away the weeniest December on record for the TN Valley as well as AL, MS, and portions of GA.
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He must have had some wine during his bubble bath!? But seriously, aren’t most winter forecasts going with a warm December? And colder last part of winter?
 
Tarheel1 said:
He must have had some wine during his bubble bath!? But seriously, aren’t most winter forecasts going with a warm December? And colder last part of winter?
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For the most part yes, there's a higher chance this year it's not all that warm because we're in a weak El Nino, but there's an overwhelming amount of evidence that the best part of the upcoming winter will likely arrive in a large-scale sense in February.
 
This is more of a banter comment than anything, but I sure hope we don't waste most of January waiting on the cold to set in in February. I'm fine with December being slightly above, if it has to be, but I'm not fond of fiddling away precious prime winter days hoping for a pattern change.
 
Rain Cold said:
This is more of a banter comment than anything, but I sure hope we don't waste most of January waiting on the cold to set in in February. I'm fine with December being slightly above, if it has to be, but I'm not fond of fiddling away precious prime winter days hoping for a pattern change.
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Agreed, not to mention, although I'm much more patient than I used to be, I'm not patient when it comes to Winter weather, hate waiting.....
 
metwannabe said:
Agreed, not to mention, although I'm much more patient than I used to be, I'm not patient when it comes to Winter weather, hate waiting.....
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I'm with you. We get a limited window for cold and snow down here, and it really sucks when it's jammed shut!
 
January is really hard to get a good read on when it comes to ENSO and seasonal forecasting in general because ENSO's modulation of the Northern Annular mode is most prominent in late winter and the month as a whole can still be cold (as evidenced by last year) in some La Ninas and end up blowtorch warm in seemingly amazing large-scale set ups because the initial forcing that institutes changes remotely over the arctic can lead to a warm pattern before more serious cold sets in later in the winter. Odds are we'll be on the cooler side of the distribution in both December & January given the weak or borderline moderate El Nino on the way but it's really up in the air atm. December & February are usually easier to forecast.
 
Rain Cold said:
This is more of a banter comment than anything, but I sure hope we don't waste most of January waiting on the cold to set in in February. I'm fine with December being slightly above, if it has to be, but I'm not fond of fiddling away precious prime winter days hoping for a pattern change.
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Same thing. I am fine with December being normal. I don't really like it warm on Christmas, though. But I'd rather be normal to a little above normal in December and turn colder for January and February. If it gets really cold in December, we know it's not going to last all winter.
 
UK monthly snowfall anoms are out. January is near normal (with more of a BN signal for lower NC and SC) for the SE, December and March are BN, and February is slightly above for the upper SE and back through TX for Feb.
 
Rain Cold said:
This is more of a banter comment than anything, but I sure hope we don't waste most of January waiting on the cold to set in in February. I'm fine with December being slightly above, if it has to be, but I'm not fond of fiddling away precious prime winter days hoping for a pattern change.
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It sure does seem that most of our nino snows are after mid/late Jan. 2015, 2010, 2003, 1987, 1983, 1980, 1978. Though, any snow any time is great so don’t mind waiting until end of Jan.
 
Here's something I'll be looking at to see if we have a true change in pattern this winter (fall for that matter too). Will we ever get rid of the west atlantic ridge? When was the last time we've had lower heights off the east coast?

ecmwf-ens_z500a_namer_11.png
 
SnowNiner said:
Here's something I'll be looking at to see if we have a true change in pattern this winter (fall for that matter too). Will we ever get rid of the west atlantic ridge? When was the last time we've had lower heights off the east coast?

ecmwf-ens_z500a_namer_11.png
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That will happen when the trough south of Greenland is gone. I was looking at this earlier, the 5-day mean Day 7-12 on the EPS shows no relief...not conducive to long term cold for the month as you can see in the image.

6745b0ca967a6c542f8587fc3fa08993.jpg



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