I feel that there's now enough model support to create a thread for this so as to not overly clutter the general models tropical thread. The more reliable model consensus suggests that should this form that it would have a good chance to miss FL to the SE although maybe not by too much. That would imply the greatest threat being to central Cuba, the Bahamas, and possibly Bermuda vs FL. However, it is still early enough for the greatest threat to shift westward to FL (especially south) a la Nate's shift. Climo says that FL landfall chances from W Caribbean or Gulf geneses are still nontrivial through about 11/5 as there were 8 of these during just 10/26-11/5 since 1851. After that is when climo based chances plummet.
Also, for the first time, the NHC mentions this:
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sun Oct 22 2017
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
1. A broad area of low pressure is expected to form over the
southwestern Caribbean Sea in a few days. Slow development of this
system is possible thereafter while it moves generally northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
Forecaster Cangialosi
Also, for the first time, the NHC mentions this:
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sun Oct 22 2017
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
1. A broad area of low pressure is expected to form over the
southwestern Caribbean Sea in a few days. Slow development of this
system is possible thereafter while it moves generally northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
Forecaster Cangialosi