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Tropical Tropical Storm Philippe

Discussion in 'Tropical Weather' started by GaWx, Oct 22, 2017.

  1. GaWx

    GaWx Supporter Member

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    I feel that there's now enough model support to create a thread for this so as to not overly clutter the general models tropical thread. The more reliable model consensus suggests that should this form that it would have a good chance to miss FL to the SE although maybe not by too much. That would imply the greatest threat being to central Cuba, the Bahamas, and possibly Bermuda vs FL. However, it is still early enough for the greatest threat to shift westward to FL (especially south) a la Nate's shift. Climo says that FL landfall chances from W Caribbean or Gulf geneses are still nontrivial through about 11/5 as there were 8 of these during just 10/26-11/5 since 1851. After that is when climo based chances plummet.

    Also, for the first time, the NHC mentions this:

    ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
    TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

    Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    200 PM EDT Sun Oct 22 2017

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    1. A broad area of low pressure is expected to form over the
    southwestern Caribbean Sea in a few days. Slow development of this
    system is possible thereafter while it moves generally northward.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

    Forecaster Cangialosi
     
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  2. pcbjr

    pcbjr Supporter Member

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    In Wiki!
     
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  3. Brent

    Brent Member

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    0/40 at 2am

    The 0z Euro is NOT impressed, maybe a noreaster in a week
     
    Last edited: Oct 23, 2017
  4. Snowfan

    Snowfan Member

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    Joe Bastardi tweeted this morning he's keeping an eye on the area.
     
  5. GaWx

    GaWx Supporter Member

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    Up to 10/50 but models suggest this would likely not be that strong should it form. There still is a chance that S FL could be affected, regardless, though it could easily move SE of S FL:

    Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    800 PM EDT Mon Oct 23 2017

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    An elongated area of low pressure has formed near the northeastern
    coast of Nicaragua. This broad disturbance is producing widespread
    cloudiness and scattered thunderstorms over much of the northwestern
    and southwestern Caribbean Sea, and the adjacent coastal areas of
    northeastern Nicaragua and eastern Honduras. Further development,
    if any, should be slow to occur for the next couple of days due to
    interaction with the high terrain of Central America. Thereafter,
    environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for some
    development to occur over the northwestern Caribbean Sea while the
    system moves slowly northward.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

    $$
    Forecaster Stewart
     
  6. ForsythSnow

    ForsythSnow Staff Member Moderator

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    It's an invest now.
     
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  7. stormcentral

    stormcentral Storm Central Wx Member

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    [​IMG]
    Then theres the HWFL showing CAT3
     
  8. GaWx

    GaWx Supporter Member

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    ^Oh yeah, that's going to happen. Lol
     
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  9. stormcentral

    stormcentral Storm Central Wx Member

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    I know posted out of humour.
     
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  10. GaWx

    GaWx Supporter Member

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    The 12Z EPS has only one of 50 members with a sub 1000 mb TC hitting FL (far south).
     
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  11. stormcentral

    stormcentral Storm Central Wx Member

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    And HWFL more realistic 18Z RUNS
    [​IMG]
     
  12. stormcentral

    stormcentral Storm Central Wx Member

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  13. stormcentral

    stormcentral Storm Central Wx Member

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    Wow. Runs are all over the place from crossing central america to north to cuba VERY low model consensus.
     
  14. stormcentral

    stormcentral Storm Central Wx Member

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    18Z guidance shifts towards Florida
    [​IMG]
     
  15. stormcentral

    stormcentral Storm Central Wx Member

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    Drunk model madness. Seems like 93L dont know which way to go. Lost.
    [​IMG]
     
  16. stormcentral

    stormcentral Storm Central Wx Member

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    CODE; Yellow Day 2 CODE; Orange Day 5 Regaurdless of any cyclone development heavy rain will be possible in Nicarauga, & Cuba as the disturbance drifts northward through weekend towards Florida straits
     
  17. stormcentral

    stormcentral Storm Central Wx Member

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    Can someone please explain to me why the models keep shifting it west across Central America. Then the next run into the Florida striaghts. Verified on GEFS;
    They have been doing it frequently with this particular storm. Or investigation
    [​IMG]
     
  18. Brent

    Brent Member

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    there's an invest in the EPAC forecast to take that track that may be confusing them

    Personally I'm starting to think hurricane season may be over... the window is closing on this to do something.

    and it has nowhere to go but north this weekend, gonna be quite a noreaster for NC and up
     
    Last edited: Oct 27, 2017
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  19. stormcentral

    stormcentral Storm Central Wx Member

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    Code; ORANGE DAY 2 Code; ORANGE DAY 5. Chance of development at 60%
     
  20. Yellow Snow

    Yellow Snow Member

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    As of the 2pm update, NHC says there is an 80% chance of tropical cyclone formation:

     
  21. ForsythSnow

    ForsythSnow Staff Member Moderator

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    If a closed circulation is found, we can call this Tropical storm Philippe.
     
  22. GaWx

    GaWx Supporter Member

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    NHC will initiate advisories at 5 PM EDT on Potential Tropical Cyclone 18.
     
  23. Brent

    Brent Member

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    this is somehow now Philippe although the center is very hard to find if it exists at all, not much of a future tropical wise anyway
     

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