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Tropical Storm Erin

GaWx

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Post away. This is currently in or near the Bahamas and is related to the modeled TCs mentioned in the main tropical thread the last couple of days

Model runs in general suggest to me that the E NC to eastern New England to Maritimes corridor may be at the highest risk of a landfall if it becomes a TC and if there ends up being a landfall. However, it will be near FL and the SE for a few days before those areas further NE could be affected. So, FL/SE coast still needs to monitor in case it develops quickly since it will likely be close-by for a few days.
 

Brent

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the Euro appears to have dropped development as did the GFS

the UKMET forms it near the Eastern Florida coast Sunday and is a hurricane south of Hatteras on Tuesday, it does stay offshore but not by much

Possible recon on Friday


I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
A. POSSIBLE LOW-LEVEL INVEST OFF SOUTHEAST FLORIDA
COAST NEAR 27.0N 79.0W FOR 23/1800Z.
B. IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS, BEGIN 6-HRLY FIXES
NEAR 29.0N 80.0W AT 24/0530Z.

Euro very strung out and a mess

ecmwf_uv850_vort_atl_6.png
 
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pcbjr

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Glad to see models are dropping it, but it is in a very good location to be a nuisance at the very least ...

GOES16-CAR-13-1000x1000-1 (dragged).jpgwg8dlm5-1.GIFwg8shr.GIFwg8sht.GIF
 

Shaggy

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Glad to see models are dropping it, but it is in a very good location to be a nuisance at the very least ...

View attachment 21818View attachment 21819View attachment 21820View attachment 21821
Models never showed TD3 or Chantal being as organized they got either. Both were only 10 or 20% chances of development but organized quickly.

Could this mean models are playing catch up? Living by every model run can be misleading. Remember just 2 days ago we were discussing august having no named storms and now we are flirting with a 2nd storm in less than a few days.
 

pcbjr

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Models never showed TD3 or Chantal being as organized they got either. Both were only 10 or 20% chances of development but organized quickly.

Could this mean models are playing catch up? Living by every model run can be misleading. Remember just 2 days ago we were discussing august having no named storms and now we are flirting with a 2nd storm in less than a few days.
Very well could.

My focus right now is the environment ... which gives me an uneasy feeling, even inland N FL ...
 

Shaggy

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Very well could.

My focus right now is the environment ... which gives me an uneasy feeling, even inland N FL ...
Always be watchful of these little homegrown surprises.....given the right conditions anything can happen without much lead time.

Katrina rapid intensification off the east coast of Florida and Alex off NC are 2 examples.
 

Downeastnc

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the first hurricane I was in that I can really remember was a homegrown and was born from something not unlike 98L and if she hadnt pulled that little loop she would probably be the 2nd or 3rd strongest landfall on record in NC....

image006.jpg
 

GaWx

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12Z Euro is stronger than prior runs as it moves NE 100 miles E of GA coast at hour 72.
 

GaWx

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The bad news is that the 12Z EPS is quite active with numerous TCs including a higher number of Hs. The good news is that practically all of the members keep it safely offshore the US as it heads NE.
 

Brent

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Code ORANGE

Satellite and surface observations show that a broad area of
low pressure has formed just northwest of Andros Island in the
central Bahamas. This system continues to produce a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms that extend eastward over
the western Atlantic for a few hundred miles. Environmental
conditions are forecast to be conducive for additional development
during the next several days, and a tropical depression could form
over the weekend or early next week while the system moves near the
coast of east-central Florida and then offshore of the southeast
United States coast.
Regardless of development, locally heavy rains
are possible over portions of the central and northwest Bahamas, and
the east-central and southeast Florida peninsula during the next few
days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
 

Brent

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Quite a few EPS members have a hurricane once it passes east of NC

AL98_2019082212_ECENS.png

Models are pretty mixed through day 5 but nothing crazy

98L_intensity_latest.png
 

Brent

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Looks like it may move over Florida before much happens clear naked swirl moving towards Miami


Recent satellite-derived wind data indicate that a weak area of low
pressure is located between the southeastern coast of Florida and
Andros Island in the northwestern Bahamas. The system is producing
a large area of disorganized cloudiness and showers that extend
primarily northeast of the center over the adjacent Atlantic Ocean.
The low is forecast to move near or over Florida later today, which
should limit development during the next day or so. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for development once the system moves
back over the Atlantic waters, and a tropical depression could form
over the weekend or early next week while the low moves near the
coast of east-central Florida and then offshore of the southeastern
United States coast. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains
are possible over the northwestern Bahamas and southern and central
Florida during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
 

Brent

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Code RED

Surface and radar data, along with satellite imagery, indicate that
the low pressure area just east of the coast of southeastern Florida
is becoming better organized. The low is forecast to move generally
northwestward near or over the eastern Florida peninsula through
tonight, and then move northward to northeastward over the Atlantic
near the east coast of the central Florida peninsula on Saturday.
After that, the system is expected to move northeastward offshore of
the southeastern United States coast. If the current trend
continues, a tropical depression is likely to form by Saturday
night. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are possible
over the northwestern Bahamas and the southern and central Florida
peninsula through the weekend. Interests in the northwestern
Bahamas, the Florida peninsula, and the southeast coast of the
United States should monitor the progress of this system. An Air
Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate
the system on Saturday, if necessary.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
 

pcbjr

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@GaWx and @Webberweather53 - Thank you both for the current observations/discussion on specifics. I look at environment and such, more mid-range for "openings"; y'all are nailing it early on the real-life results. May soon be time to saunter on down to Wal-Mart and Publix and get some extra batteries and 7 -10 days worth of dry goods ... :oops::confused:
Again ... Thanks!

PS - This is not to ignore the many others who are providing great info, but Larry and Webb have been ... well, nailing it ...
 

Brent

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A broad area of low pressure located inland over South Florida
continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms that extend eastward over the northwestern Bahamas
and the adjacent Atlantic waters. Significant development of the
low is unlikely today while it drifts northward over the southern
Florida peninsula. Environmental conditions appear conducive to
support gradual development once the low moves off the east-central
coast of Florida over the western Atlantic by Sunday, and a tropical
or subtropical depression is likely to form early next week while
the system moves northeastward offshore of the southeastern United
States coast.

Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are possible over the
northwestern Bahamas and the southern and central Florida peninsula
through the weekend. Interests in the northwestern Bahamas, the
Florida peninsula, and the southeastern coast of the United States
should monitor the progress of this system. The Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft scheduled to investigate the system later
today could be postponed if the center of the low remains inland
over Florida. Another aircraft is scheduled to investigate the
system on Sunday.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
 

Snowfan

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Here's the latest from the NHC.
A trough of low pressure extending from the coast of south-central
Florida northeastward over the western Atlantic for a few hundred
miles continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
gradual development during the next few days, and a tropical or
subtropical depression is likely to form early next week while the
system moves northeastward over the Atlantic, offshore of the
southeastern United States coast. Interests along the coasts of
South and North Carolina should continue to monitor the progress
of this system. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is
scheduled to investigate the system on Sunday, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
 

BufordWX

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NHC has now slightly lowered chances of this system developing to 60/80.

Showers and thunderstorms remain disorganized in association with a
trough of low pressure that extends from south-central Florida
northeastward over the western Atlantic for a few hundred
miles. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual
development, and a tropical or subtropical depression is likely to
form within the next few days
while the system moves northeastward
offshore of the southeastern United States. Interests along the
coasts of South and North Carolina should continue to monitor the
progress of this system. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter

aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance later today, if
necessary.

*Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.


F555CD1D-F34D-4B64-8439-5ABDF6FA8A80.png
 

BufordWX

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NHC has raised 48 hour chance of development to 70% again. The Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft mission has been canceled, but another is scheduled for tomorrow.

Recent satellite wind data indicate that the circulation of an
elongated low pressure area centered about 350 miles south-southwest
of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, has become a little better
defined. While the associated shower and thunderstorm activity is
currently poorly organized, environmental conditions appear
conducive for gradual development, and a tropical or subtropical
cyclone is likely to form within the next few days
while the system
moves slowly northeastward well offshore of the southeastern United
States. Interests along the coasts of South and North Carolina
should continue to monitor the progress of this system. The Air

Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft mission scheduled for this
afternoon was canceled. However, another aircraft is scheduled to

investigate the system on Monday, if necessary. Additional
information on this system is available in High Seas Forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service.


* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
 
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