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Tropical Tropical Storm Erin

GaWx

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Post away. This is currently in or near the Bahamas and is related to the modeled TCs mentioned in the main tropical thread the last couple of days

Model runs in general suggest to me that the E NC to eastern New England to Maritimes corridor may be at the highest risk of a landfall if it becomes a TC and if there ends up being a landfall. However, it will be near FL and the SE for a few days before those areas further NE could be affected. So, FL/SE coast still needs to monitor in case it develops quickly since it will likely be close-by for a few days.
 
Well, right on cue for the peak of hurricane season.

gfs_ir_watl_61-png.21815
 
Oops, sorry, I thought it was the same one we were watching to form off FL.
 
the Euro appears to have dropped development as did the GFS

the UKMET forms it near the Eastern Florida coast Sunday and is a hurricane south of Hatteras on Tuesday, it does stay offshore but not by much

Possible recon on Friday


I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
A. POSSIBLE LOW-LEVEL INVEST OFF SOUTHEAST FLORIDA
COAST NEAR 27.0N 79.0W FOR 23/1800Z.
B. IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS, BEGIN 6-HRLY FIXES
NEAR 29.0N 80.0W AT 24/0530Z.

Euro very strung out and a mess

ecmwf_uv850_vort_atl_6.png
 
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Glad to see models are dropping it, but it is in a very good location to be a nuisance at the very least ...

GOES16-CAR-13-1000x1000-1 (dragged).jpgwg8dlm5-1.GIFwg8shr.GIFwg8sht.GIF
 
Glad to see models are dropping it, but it is in a very good location to be a nuisance at the very least ...

View attachment 21818View attachment 21819View attachment 21820View attachment 21821

Models never showed TD3 or Chantal being as organized they got either. Both were only 10 or 20% chances of development but organized quickly.

Could this mean models are playing catch up? Living by every model run can be misleading. Remember just 2 days ago we were discussing august having no named storms and now we are flirting with a 2nd storm in less than a few days.
 
Models never showed TD3 or Chantal being as organized they got either. Both were only 10 or 20% chances of development but organized quickly.

Could this mean models are playing catch up? Living by every model run can be misleading. Remember just 2 days ago we were discussing august having no named storms and now we are flirting with a 2nd storm in less than a few days.

Very well could.

My focus right now is the environment ... which gives me an uneasy feeling, even inland N FL ...
 
Very well could.

My focus right now is the environment ... which gives me an uneasy feeling, even inland N FL ...

Always be watchful of these little homegrown surprises.....given the right conditions anything can happen without much lead time.

Katrina rapid intensification off the east coast of Florida and Alex off NC are 2 examples.
 
the first hurricane I was in that I can really remember was a homegrown and was born from something not unlike 98L and if she hadnt pulled that little loop she would probably be the 2nd or 3rd strongest landfall on record in NC....

image006.jpg
 
12Z Euro is stronger than prior runs as it moves NE 100 miles E of GA coast at hour 72.
 
The bad news is that the 12Z EPS is quite active with numerous TCs including a higher number of Hs. The good news is that practically all of the members keep it safely offshore the US as it heads NE.
 
Code ORANGE

Satellite and surface observations show that a broad area of
low pressure has formed just northwest of Andros Island in the
central Bahamas. This system continues to produce a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms that extend eastward over
the western Atlantic for a few hundred miles. Environmental
conditions are forecast to be conducive for additional development
during the next several days, and a tropical depression could form
over the weekend or early next week while the system moves near the
coast of east-central Florida and then offshore of the southeast
United States coast.
Regardless of development, locally heavy rains
are possible over portions of the central and northwest Bahamas, and
the east-central and southeast Florida peninsula during the next few
days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
 
Good cruising weather! ????
 
Anybody got intensity forecast maps for this thing?
 
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