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Tropical Tropical Storm Barry

accu35

accu35

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Alright guys, here we go. Euro west GFS east, who will win? Let the games begin.
 
accu35 said:
Alright guys, here we go. Euro west GFS east, who will win? Let the games begin.
Click to expand...

Also, Euro/EPS mean much stronger than GFS/GEFS mean and CDN GEPS mean. This will tell us a fair bit about the current version of the Euro.
 
As a result of the further west 18Z GFS track as well as very slow movement, the AL, far SE MS, and W FL panhandle rainfall is ominously high. Even N GA gets 3-5". So, a big flood threat, especially for AL, IF this were to verify. Make sure your boats are ready just in case! But this is a Happy Hour run. So, you, of course, have SouthernWx's permission to toss as always.
 
The dichotomy between the EPS and GEFS/GEPS continues as the Happy Hour GEFS is still another one with zero members (out of ~21) with SLP of 1003 mb or lower!

Edit: I actually now see one sub 1003 member (hits TX) on the Tidbits source that my source showing sub 1004s doesn't have...maybe that's because it is a control run that my source ignores. Still, there's a big contrast to the EPS though this GEFS run was slightly stronger vs earler runs and and also is further west.
 
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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sun Jul 7 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A trough of low pressure located over the southeastern United States
is forecast to move southward toward the northeastern Gulf of
Mexico, where a broad area of low pressure will likely form in a few
days. Some gradual development is possible thereafter and a tropical
depression could form by the end of the week while the low meanders
near the northern Gulf Coast. Regardless of development, this system
has the potential to produce heavy rainfall along portions of the
central and eastern U.S. Gulf Coast later this week. For more
information about the rainfall threat, please see products issued by
your local weather forecast office and the Weather Prediction
Center. Interests along the northern Gulf Coast and Florida
peninsula should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
 
The NHC seems to like the idea of an eastern track with this system
 
Ethan80963 said:
The NHC seems to like the idea of an eastern track with this system
Click to expand...

maybe not, this from the WPC discussion

Elsewhere, the Pacific NW continues to be well agreed upon for a
general model blend. As for the Southeast, the 12z ECMWF trended a
bit faster rotating around the ridge and further southwest into
the Gulf by 84hrs compared to the 00z run; it remains well south
of the NAM but accompanied by the CMC/UKMET with the GFS still
splitting the difference between the NAM/ECMWF. WPC/NHC
preferences are more toward the southern solutions and away from
the NAM, but overall the spread is small to support a general
model blend with lower weight to the NAM.

The circle is so far east probably because if it did go west it'd be beyond day 5(which is as far as their outlook goes)
 
I would say west is more likely. These types of early GOM systems tend to take much longer to organize than the models predict. Dont be surprised if Houston isnt the target.

They also are very east side heavy, so actual landfall point is mostly moot.
 
09fb59d6a5cf0f96db6cafdc6044b769.jpg



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
FWIW 0z Nam little stronger than 18z, but it's the long range Nam and doesn't it suck at tropical systems?
 
accu35 said:
FWIW 0z Nam little stronger than 18z, but it's the long range Nam and doesn't it suck at tropical systems?
Click to expand...
NAM is just crazy in hurricane season.
Also, The ICON has trended south and stronger through 96.
 
The Rainfall totals on the EURO look pretty impressive. I see a 23" total for a portion of southern MS.
 
ICON strengthens it into a hurricane and hits Louisana through 135.
 
GFS is extremely weak, basically nothing again lol

It is SOUTH of Louisiana at 96 and looks Texas bound???
 
Didn’t the old GFS have a problem of making storms WAY too strong? Like it used to through out 900mb storms on the usual?
 
Snowflowxxl said:
Didn’t the old GFS have a problem of making storms WAY too strong? Like it used to through out 900mb storms on the usual?
Click to expand...

yeah now it seems to have the opposite problem of ignoring them...

UKMET into Mobile as a hurricane it appears
 
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This all depends on this col type pattern, whether there’s more interaction from lower mslp from a front, or more high pressure above/around it slowing it down allowing it to sit in gulf a lot longer and having less interaction from the front, which would give it more tropical characteristics and a much more organized storm, only thing it would battle would be upwelling and shallow water, icon does not have much frontal interaction and lets this thing sit out there and strengthen, been noticing on models They keep it strengthening around/on the coast, even tho there’s shallow water, it’s warm 9236A783-9D66-48CC-B504-18B24FE4A36B.jpeg
 
This is a sensitive ass pattern, one change with the fropa and it could weaken the storm, or not much interaction and it would strengthen, it’s not much in between
 
The Euro is Texas bound! its so far west it hits me lmao

ecmwf_z500_mslp_watl_6 (1).pngecmwf_z500_mslp_watl_7 (1).png
 
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