Severe Severe Threat April 5th-7th

[TripleJ185]

Man, wind is REALLY whipping around outside. Rain is coming down steadily.

 

[GeorgiaGirl]

Well, a severe thunderstorm watch has just been issued for until 7 AM...wonder if that line holds. If so hopefully I'll be able to sleep later tonight.

 

[TripleJ185]

Just got a light smattering of pea sized hail. Nothing significant. Just wanted to be heard, I guess..


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[SoutheastRidge]

If there is even the possibility of a wedge in GA, lower sever expectations significantly.

I was about to post the same thing. Didnt the NAM suggest an insitu wedge ? I agree that from now on if even just one model is showing a wedge and no other model is, go with the model showing the wedge.

 

[SoutheastRidge]

Maybe if this had been early May instead of early April things would have been different ? Maybe it's just too early in spring to get a good severe weather outbreak.

 

[SoutheastRidge]

To be fair the Monday system in east Georgia was pretty decent severe wise. I don't remember what the maps had for that but an enhanced seems right for there in retrospect.

The Monday system was decent in West Georgia too. Tornado touched down in Carrollton on Monday.

 

[RollTide18]

Maybe if this had been early May instead of early April things would have been different ? Maybe it's just too early in spring to get a good severe weather outbreak.

Not really, 3/1/07, 4/8/98, 4/3/74, 4/15/11, 3/27/94 have all been red letter days

 

[Tarheel1]

Maybe if this had been early May instead of early April things would have been different ? Maybe it's just too early in spring to get a good severe weather outbreak.

It's the sun angle

 

[Tarheel1]

Well, with wedge in place, 58 degrees, had pea to marble sized hail covering the ground briefly! The warning said the storm was moving at 80 mph!!!

 

[Metwannabe]

Things are trying to get going this morning

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[Brick Tamland]

Things are trying to get going this morning

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I thought we were supposed to have bad storms overnight, though. There weren't any storms at all here. Either the timing is just off or this is a big bust with the way WRAL hyped the risk and how confident RAH was.

 

[Jon]

Tornado Watch issued for NC

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[Jon]

Probabilities

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[Brick Tamland]

Well, I guess the threat is still there. Seems the timing was just off. The conditions this morning with the clearing skies is usually what we need to get severe storms here anyway versus the rain and clouds during the day yesterday.

 

[Brick Tamland]

Severe thunderstorm warning for Wake County now.

 

[SD]

Severe thunderstorm warning for Wake County now.

Everything is probably elevated across the area this morning. The sun was out at my house when I left for work, I think the best tor threat will be E of Raleigh probably along I95 where a little morning sun could aid in generating enough SB instability

 

[SD]

That area of cells from Fuquay down to Fayetteville mean business

 

[Metwannabe]

Everything is probably elevated across the area this morning. The sun was out at my house when I left for work, I think the best tor threat will be E of Raleigh probably along I95 where a little morning sun could aid in generating enough SB instability

SBCAPE is basically non-existent this morning but mid level lapse rates are decent in central NC

 

[Brick Tamland]

The storms seem to be missing Wake to the north and south.

 

[SD]

SBCAPE is basically non-existent this morning but mid level lapse rates are decent in central NC

Great recipe for hail and wind