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Misc September Segue

Just a question for the experts? With Harvey, 93L any other TC out there, can Powerful TC pull the troughs deeper and sharper with much cooler air? Idk i was always told that TC can help set stage for a good Fall/winter.
 
accu35 said:
Just a question for the experts? With Harvey, 93L any other TC out there, can Powerful TC pull the troughs deeper and sharper with much cooler air? Idk i was always told that TC can help set stage for a good Fall/winter.
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Just wondering because Gfs/Euro has been showing some seriously deep troughs lately
 
accu35 said:
Just a question for the experts? With Harvey, 93L any other TC out there, can Powerful TC pull the troughs deeper and sharper with much cooler air? Idk i was always told that TC can help set stage for a good Fall/winter.
Click to expand...

Indeed, a recurving TC can combine with an individual trough and make it deeper. I don't know about that setting the stage for a colder winter, however. I don't know of any connection that has been proven.
 
accu35 said:
Just a question for the experts? With Harvey, 93L any other TC out there, can Powerful TC pull the troughs deeper and sharper with much cooler air? Idk i was always told that TC can help set stage for a good Fall/winter.
Click to expand...
This is wholly unscientific, and I am no expert, as we all know, but ...

First, there are so many variables that go into making a winter. We've seen it very cold with a +NAO and with a -PNA and with ...; and we've seen it warm with a -NAO, +PNA, etc. So, I suggest, one variable does not a winter make. And that observation/theorem would, I propose, goes to T/Cs impacting winter in a given year.

Second, take a look at last winter with Hermine and Matthew squarely affecting us in the SE; what did that buy? Rhetorical question, perhaps.

I ran composites on the winters after Cleo (much like Matthew), Kate (much like Hermine), Katrina (similar in ways to Harvey, I suppose), and also blended Cleo (1964) and Kate (1985) {just to see where that might lead}, and all the results with T/C's being the only variable show nothing but "normal". Remember, of course, that 1964, 1985, 2005, and last year, all had many drivers impacting winter's eventual unfolding and outcome.
Here's the composites, for what little they are worth:

Cleo -

cd174.64.77.18.240.14.34.8.prcp.png


Kate -

cd174.64.77.18.240.14.35.23.prcp.png


Katrina -

cd174.64.77.18.240.14.35.57.prcp.png



Cleo and Kate combined -

cd174.64.77.18.240.14.36.52.prcp.png


Bottom line - there are far more forces at work than a T/C needed to make a good winter ...

Just my 2¢
 
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Well, I sure hope what I just saw in kicks and giggles land on the GFS (albeit the updated version) does not verify. The temps predicted are amazing but it has one heck of a tropical system.
 
Euro has 50s in Dallas at the end of next week. I can't remember the last time it was in the 50s here(or even below upper 60s)

Sign me up... lol
 
Brent said:
Euro has 50s in Dallas at the end of next week. I can't remember the last time it was in the 50s here(or even below upper 60s)

Sign me up... lol
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So ready for it
 
GFS has mid and upper 50s here starting this Saturday for a few nights then another front apparently then next week with lower and middle 50s. Looks like Mother Nature is hyped up on coffee...lots going on.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Will the SD rain shield hold or will it finally be obliterated? Thanks to some Harvey moisture enhanced showers/storms...

gfs_apcpn_seus_15.png
 
Rain is a nice change of pace!
 
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